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Not surprising that models are flip flopping all over the place. GFS after losing 94L for a while now develops it in the 18z run. Given how robust 94L has looked, I've always sold the idea that it wouldn't develop, but let's see how it handles interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (3) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 3 (1) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto

Yeah there's one piece that seemingly wants to be in place, but unless the ridge is rolling over into SE Canada it's going to be hard to block an escape if this tries heading our way. We'll see how much, if any, things change as we get recon/balloon data and see how Humberto affects things. Part of me is wondering if Humberto takes off intensity wise and gets poleward faster for its escape if that closes the door for a future Imelda escape. I mean the 12z Euro (we sell for now) does what it does because that ridge builds over the top and into SE Canada before Imelda can escape. I still think if anything this is a Carolinas threat or OTS but we have a long way to go.

I recommend folks who are curious follow the Invest 94L thread. If 94L isn’t pulled toward Humberto (via Fujiwhara), portions of the SE US may be in danger of a hit from 94L per the 12Z EPS, 18Z Icon, and others. In addition, the MJO is forecasted to be in phase 2 9/27-10/3. That has been the single most dangerous phase for the Conus overall since 1975 during Jul-Sept overall.

2.30”.

I hear both all the time. By the time the roar of the first plane is about to totally dissipate I hear the whine of the next plane approaching. Ever since 2012 LGA permanently switched over to the "Tennis Climb," which they used to use only to avoid the US Open. That puts the planes right over eastern Queens. Not only that, but the frequency of flights has gone through the roof with updated technology and they also fly 1000 feet lower, which all just compound the noise problem. https://qns.com/2025/09/meng-quiet-communities-act-aircraft-noise-queens/ And I know the towns of Hempstead and North Hempstead are suing the FAA.

Closer view of the Icon

hey guys how much rain has central park recorded this month so far?

Example: 18Z Icon: no Fujiwhara and 94L gets stuck under the strengthening US Great Lakes ridge and subsequently turns NW toward C FL: Edit: And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2.

It took 6 hours of mist but I'm on the board at 0.01" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Fall color starting to pop at the top of Smith Mtn (about 2k'). Maple, elm, and hickory mostly. Oaks still mostly green but the acorns are carpet bombing everything lol. Lots of pines on the mtn so it looks really nice during peak with the contrast.

Followup: Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened.

words and phrases like *lull* and *rounds of rain* should be banned from TV, TV Mets are unintellectual robots who use the same words over and over again.

Thanks Don ! What a fascinating read ! Also possibly proof of a cyclic multiverse !

Sadly something we have not experienced much in recent years, when was the last time it was frozen-- February 2015?

Some have speculated toward that end. One article: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/james-webb-space-telescope/is-our-universe-trapped-inside-a-black-hole-this-james-webb-space-telescope-discovery-might-blow-your-mind

I would spend half the time looking out of the windows of Lindell School which was right on the bay and under the flight landing path to JFK near the edge of Lawrence Marsh. We would also have the really big barges going by since that was such a busy waterway. I thought it was the coolest thing when the bay was nearly frozen across during all the cold winters growing up back in Long Beach.

Best guess: Probably not this century. This does not apply over geological time frames e.g., long after the human greenhouse gas-emitting supervolcano (hopefully by choice, not circumstances beyond human control e.g., exhaustion of fossil fuel reserves) has gone dormant and CO2 levels drop from the human-induced peak that still lies ahead.

Tacked on 1” during day. we wetter.

Thanks this was going to be my next question, Don! It's what caused me to conjecture that a universe could exist inside a spinning Kerr black hole (maybe ours as recent evidence indicates our universe is spinning) because there would be a calm *eye* at the center of such a spinning black hole that would be stable enough to house one. In this case gravity would be the analog to wind.

Back when I was in high school the teachers hated it because they had to interrupt their teaching as the windows rattled and no one could hear anything. I wonder if hearing damage can result from these kinds of loud noises? It's more annoying when it happens at night when you're trying to sleep although I notice there aren't many flights here between 11 pm and 5 am. It messes up my astrophotography sometimes but I have software that removes airplane streaks from my pictures automatically (they are treated as bad pixels.)

The same physics is involved (conservation of angular momentum) in a rotating system be they celestial bodies or tropical cyclones.

I actually got used to being right under the flight path for planes landing at JFK when I was back in Long Beach. But it was hard to ignore the Concorde which flew over my house every morning shortly after 9am coming into JFK. But kids think that kind of stuff if pretty cool anyway. I live near a much smaller airport now and the flight path doesn’t go directly over my house. But it’s really cool walking around the airport and seeing all the takeoffs and landings. There is a dirt lot where the locals park to watch all the flights landing and taking off. I still enjoy the low flyovers when walking on the sidewalk which crosses directly under the planes just off the end of the runway. I have noticed that the Boeing 737 is a much louder jet than the Airbus A 220. The airbus has more of a higher pitched whine and the Boeing is more of a deep roar. Had friends in the aviation business that would get to ride the jump seats on flights.

It's too bad because the trough over the upper OV and SE sort of argue to try and pull it closer, but again....massive gyre well N and NE of New England tries to come down and push it OTS.

it's fascinating how a Fujiwara interaction is so reminiscent of a gravitational interaction between two celestial bodies in proximity to each other.