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Bid DT fan I see? DT guy? *Seriously, he's wishy-washy at best... 35F/Cloudy

No, I don't think it's going to be far off in the end, but not close enough for most to give a flying one. Been my thought all along.

The “Not happening James” line of thinking has been passed down a generation…

Yea

5 days of INS posting the ICON ENS and SREFs came north a bit

The upper levels drive the lower levels, not the other way around. The 6z and, to a lesser extent 00z, were further off than the 12z to being a much bigger deal up here heights backed significantly more ahead of the system. You tilt that initial s/w ahead of the ULL more meridionally, all the Sudden you end up cutting it off 50-100 miles north and have a different story We can work with something similar to what the 12z ICON shows, the previous few runs, not so much

Tracking purgatory.

Also need the ridge out in the Rockies to shift westward also using the ICON 5 days out is useless IMO - this will not be centered over a relatively small area of the DEL MARVA

You've been hanging out with the old man too much

Actually ICON has some good improvements aloft. Less intrusion from the northeast, less ridge herniation north of Lake Superior....

The ICON is definitely better... but that's just saying it sucks less. Hopefully some of the other models follow it's movement

seeing how close the ICON was...and comparing them at 84, makes me think it would have ended well. RGEM was already amplifying the wave. We need this thing to start developing in the TN valley not relying on that perfect phase capture miller b solution to get anything.

Better than 6z. All we can ask for.

GJGE

The entire evolution is different WRT that initial low. We need that look to come back.

Icon blows up offshore pretty much a non event for most of us

Nah I would rule out, watch the gfs go to bermuda

Looked to me like its a cape scraper, So its not really a whiff.

Yea, last night we officially moved to the vacuous "better/worse" OTS resignation.

The block is crushing it south and the ridge axis is a little too far east for us. Can these change yes, but these are two big factors that would squelch any major storm chance.

RGEM was significantly more amplified than the ICON at 84 hours...

Resulting in this.

apparently RGEM is good as well. maybe we are back today

Looked intriguing

Take a look at the 500 charts, this run verbatim doesn’t get us there, but the changes were marked and in the right direction overall