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Funny, that year behaved the opposite of a nino (due to Pinatubo). Normally, you'd get the cool summer in the East preceding the el nino and the warm summer in the East following the el nino. Instead, the summer of 91 was a record warm summer in the East, and the summer of 92 was the cold summer in the East. Of course, Pinatubo resulted in a temporary cooling, which led the snowier winters of 92-93, 93-94, and maybe even 95-96.

I think this is why it’s important to have a threat on the horizon as we approach winter. The above, in various forms, has happened so many times over the past 5+ years. definitely okay to keep expectations for December in check for now. Maybe we can eventually get some NAO blocking later in the winter, but I wouldn’t count on it

Yup, Risk is always a possibility here…but we take our chances. We’ve had great looks a few time over the last couple years…And have come up empty. I’ll gladly entertain what’s coming.

Mount Mansfield off to a great start.

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

Is the ext available to compare the same outputs? Maybe instead of doing the loop in phase 7, it does it right on the line between 7/8 then goes back into 8. Yesterdays did the loop in 7

Kind of wish the -NAO didn’t disappear on us. Guidance had been quite bullish on it for December but now it’s basically gone. Don’t need a Davis strait block but a bit of -NAO would help pin that cold a little further south. As long as we keep good cross polar flow though and that PV anomaly in SE Canada stays strong, we’ll have chances, but there’s def gonna be some risk we mix in a cutter.

The Vatican had decreed 70° for some

You’re funny bro…but it’s cool. Anyway..guidance is cooling, which is good to see. We’ll have some opportunities.

Just picked up a half inch of rain so far with the 1st line moving through. Hoping for more later in the day with the 2nd round of T-storms. Much needed precip here. So ironically I am going back to work after being retired for 2 years. Outdoor work, and looks like rain the whole 1st week I start. Hasn't rained here for 4 mos. I might be retired again quickly.

Should help preserve the snowpack a bit more?

I sleep like shit every night because my cat crawls on my face at 5am wanting food.

lol

I was just going through my analogs and I found the dew on 12/1 is critical for the upcoming winter. If it’s 52° or over Southington averages 20” of snow. If it’s under 52° they average 70”. So this will be critical tracking.

And Why is it ok for you to troll me with a day 11 op? So when I give it back to you, you got a million excuses for why it’s not so?

true. I think that Pacific trough is transient as the momentum from the poleward jet extension pushes into AK. then, as the MJO continues progressing, it wouldn't be surprising to see another equatorward extension... that period will become clearer over the next week or so I think we warm up for a week from like the 10-17th... what happens afterwards is more dubious

The difference is…the prog was way wrong. And the new prog is substantially cooler now than it was a few days ago. That’s the takeaway. If it makes you sleep better to not admit that, that’s cool too.

lol you’re trying to bump troll me with a d11 op run of dews that I was only trolling with to begin with. The timing may be different, but we’re in line for some warm sectors regardless. But whatev.

We’ll have plenty of chances of 60 dews coming up.

Precisely

No one is saying that…but the point is you were busting balls(and that’s fine)…but that prog won’t even be close to happening like it showed on the 29th now. And a couple days later has cooled significantly as well, and that’s a week out still, so that is still in question too.

Like a Helen Keller dong?

If we got an amped up cutter it could end up 60/60. What difference does it make in the scheme of things? Either it snows or it’s some varying temp of rain over bare ground.