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At least here it was heavy rain most of the day-by the time it was cold enough for snow we dryslotted so it was light and non accumulating. Got a few inches as the storm pulled away in the overnight hours.

And that 80" had lots of meat. About 2/3 down thru the pack there was a major layer of IP annealed by ZR from a storm in mid December. Once there was snow atop that layer, it would support a bull moose. The 65" at my place had about 16" SWE; that 80" might've had 20". We figured that spring would be the test of the dike protecting the western part of Fort Kent, but little rain and many days with warm sun and nightly freezes prevented any hint of flooding. (The test came in 2008 when 3"+ RA fell during peak melting late in April, producing a flood that came within about 18" from topping the dike and causing much damage east of the dike. We had the same rains but our area, including the western mountains, had shed most of the snow a week earlier.)

feels like summer outside.

Already 78 here. Probably gonna hit 82 this afternoon.

Still awful on barrier islands

59 at ISP

Up to 70 now at home, 63-64 where I am in Melville.

Are you talking RONI peak?

I don’t remember that storm, guess I blocked it out of my memory. What a joke.

I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset. The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset.

Absolutely, wind direction readings can be tricky because of the natural variability in airflow. Many home weather stations only capture the direction at the moment they sample, so rapid shifts aren’t reflected in real time. High-end or professional sensors can update multiple times per second, giving a more dynamic view, but most consumer models essentially show a “snapshot” rather than continuous change.

I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.

We've been through that....higher end events are going to leak east. You keep imagining this uber-strong, western biased unicorn...have at it. Yes, strong events are favorable for rouge blizzards, agreed. I called the 2016 event down to the week on a seasonal level. I am talking about temps and NE overall snowfall...only one that was decent for NE snowfall was 1982, which had somewhat of a -WPO.

Every month in the 2020s has been -PDO. 74 consecutive months right now. Will it break? Stay tuned!

Split stank for me.

I do not expect it be like 2023-2024.

In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ. I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings.

I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative.

It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless.

Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.

Wow 80 inches is sick

If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.

I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.

Rumble here too. I’m staying safe