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6z NAM is meh

Not really 3-4 days out...the storm is only 48-60 hours from forming. Whatever impacts we have could be 72-96 hours away but we're getting into useful range of the NAM imo since the phasing that so many Euro runs had was supposed to happen in the Friday-Saturday time frame.

FWIW, the GFS operational has brought back a CAG system in the midrange, lifting it into the GOM the past few runs. The 00z was more pronounced with a hurricane.

0z seemed pretty meh overall

Gfs LOL terrible model At least it nailed our blizzard

Gfs is a terrible model

Yeah but think about it: If that happens we will have what we haven't had in 11 years: 1-2 feet of snow! You realize that, given the two ninas forthcoming after this winter, we have zero chance of seeing that until 2029-30 at the earliest, right? Yeah I would take one big snow in a millisecond!

The new 00Z EC-AIFS has become more aggressive with the cyclone. At F78, 06Z Saturday Sep. 26, it's down to about 989 mb. Compare that with the 18Z AIFS at roughly the same point, which was around 997 to 988 mb depending on the exact six-hour frame. More importantly, look at the position: the 00Z AIFS still has the center much farther west than the 00Z GFS, sitting roughly east of the Delmarva/NJ corridor rather than racing harmlessly toward the open Atlantic. And look at the structure. The isobars are extremely tightly packed on the western and northwestern side, right toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. That's a very substantial pressure gradient between the cyclone and the 1026 mb high to the north. The deepening sequence on this 00Z AIFS is also worth watching. We had approximately 999 mb at F54, and now 989 mb at F78. That's 10 mb in 24 hours, so this particular 24-hour interval is not bombogenesis. But the cyclone is already quite deep by Saturday morning, and what happens during the next 12 to 24 hours is the fascinating part.

0Z GEFS

0Z AI GFS OZ ICON

0Z UKMET

0Z GFS - models all over the place - wide range of total precip west of Long Island through 120 hours 0Z Canadian

Training storms around Lake lure tonight. A flood warning for them.

Is there any way to increase the maximum file size of an upload? 52.47 kB isn't really a lot.

Thanks for the replies. Appreciate it.

The 00Z GFS has shifted the developing low a bit farther east than the 18Z run, at least in these early frames. On the 18Z GFS, by early Friday the center was tucked closer to roughly the 70°W corridor. On the new 00Z run, the F48 center is still farther offshore, around the upper-60s west longitude, so call it roughly 100 to 150 miles east of where the prior run was trying to organize the cyclone at a comparable stage. That is not a huge jump, but it is definitely not another westward correction yet. The important part is that the blocking high is still very strong, so an initially farther-east low does not necessarily mean the later retrograde will also be farther east. With this setup, the bigger question is still where the storm gets captured and starts bending back. So, early read: 18Z: farther west early. 00Z: modest eastward shift early. Block: still very much there. The F60-F84 frames will tell us whether that eastward difference survives or whether the 00Z run bends it back toward the 18Z/Euro idea.