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If we get any potential of Typhoon action and especially recurving Typhoon action it will fail.

I don't want to sound too optimistic because Bluewave will be on my door step.

Yea, I think we will have some servicable stretches...but overall the west-urine pool does of course remain.

Agreed. But if it turns back down by the end of this month, the record NOAA PDO low of October 2024’s -3.80 would be in danger. For MTD, it’s likely in that vicinity now. That table goes way back to 1854.

Lol I just saw that. Given early indications of simply just looking at configurations I don't think this is a bad take for potentially happening this winter.

@ORH_wxmanWas actually metioning the other day how this year kind of resembles some of the older cool ENSO event in that there is more cooler water near the west coast than in the recent ones.

Jinx. I will add that JMA essentially ENSO neutral, too....slight hedge towards cool ENSO, so the EMI really isn't a big deal, but I would rather have it east all things equal. Yes, snowman...I know how the Pacific looks right now...just speaking of the model.

Looks like we might be in for a brief taste of fall. https://www.facebook.com/share/1FD9w4ijqg/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Shoot the messenger or don't (please don't) but there are definitely some similarities SST wise to 2013 and 2017 to this year so far. Yes I know 2013 is not happening same ol same ol but one can still analyze the aspects of how similar they are still somehow. You could even try to throw in 2021 if the Nina can actually try to be something SST wise. This year we have just overall bumped the warmer mid latitudes compared to those years.

I think we are going to see some variation and another periood of the season that deviates from the west Pac urine pool.

Not that its a big deal considering La Nina shouldn't be too strong, but JMA seems to imply an east based event along the lines of 2021. Just speaking of La Nina EMI...I do realize that solar is much different and La Nina will be weaker. JMA hovers the EMI around -.3 or so during the winter...which is similar to 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. First of all...no, 1995-1996 is not a seasonal analog, so please spare me Bluewave's wrath (jk....kinda). But signs like this reenforce my early suspicion that this will not be a wall-to-wall death star season.

Scoot should just send him his degree right now.

Yes it something very similar to this last year I believe we may have peaked a bit earlier this year than we did last year but will see how the 500mb sets up over the next few weeks to give clues. Some models want to slowly erode the 500mb high setup versus others just obliterating it (frickin GFS). We should take a run at the lowest monthly value but probably fall short depending on how quickly things level out. It has been raining quite a bit of late for that lol

Hopefully we can get some heat dome MCS events before it shifts.

It was bound to happen. Called the weeks ago.

I suspect that the first week of August could turn cooler and less humid for at least a time, as a powerful heat dome retrogrades to the Rockies. But above normal temperatures will likely return during the second week of the month. However, as that's still far in the future, the guidance can yet change.

I get what you are saying but locking it regionally (Midwest/ Ohio Valley) like you posted is not factual. It has been a warm summer I would actually say last summer was probably warmer than this year has been for the CONUS but we won't know until late August. Humidity/ dew point wise nothing really has been that different from prior years across the CONUS we are still hitting our low to even mid 70s consistently around here in the mid atlantic like we have over numerous years. The corn crop is still causing evapotranspiration as it has, hopefully this dies off as we move into a less HFCS type of lifestyle.

It’s part of the record subtropical ridge expansion this decade across the Northern Hemisphere.

Fall feel today

Or doing lawn work, or walking the dog, or playing golf, or hiking…etc etc etc.

Maybe. Modeling is consistent right now with a another weaker dew down Thu night/Fri.

Outside of lapse rates, Sunday isn't a terrible setup. Have to iron out the timing and details a bit better but could have potential for a few tornadoes. Shear is pretty decent and instability looks beefy despite the weak lapse rates.

Lots of people asking what happened to pool and beach weather. Luckily it comes back soon. If I’m paving rt 3 this works.

Yes. I get the humor involved. Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade. Just taking note of the pattern and where it has gone in the recent past with these persistent base states across the mid-latitudes.

That heater goes right into next weekend