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Problem with big heat ..particularly nearing the top of physical plausibility ( which this has potential to produce ...) is that we have to think of it as maxing. That means by default it becomes easier to correct downward based upon least excuse imagined, than it does to try an push the top thru geophysical limitations. It's true... one wrongly timed cirrostratus this, or the 850 mb hottest pulse ends up at 06z instead of 15z ... these thus become critical a limiting factors. Having said that, this could cap out at 95 and bust the mid range hundos, and we'd still verify a heat headline scenario. So it's really a matter of bragging rights whether we make 101 of ping high 97s out of this. I don't think those 105's were really very realistic - ...or in the least, sufficed it is to say, given what we know of model tech error and biases at D 5-8 range, we'd need to have ti be the next day ( as in 24 to 36 hour lead) before regional record stroke of that amount is confident.

You got drawn in because I admire and greatly respect your demonstrated intelligence.

Where is the DGEX when you need it! 168 hr NAM...right!

Ha…I was gonna say. You know where to find every model.

Yes, PDS - particularly dangerous situation. I am just talking about how blizzard and ice storm warnings will have this label soon as an option.

Boy, this worked out well (cha-ching) for PECO workers w/the impending heat wave and possible power outages. Bargaining chips... 80F/DP 69F https://6abc.com/post/peco-workers-go-strike-july-4-ibew-local-614-officials-say/19380766/

i meant 12z

Days like this are usually reserved for winter storm fails.

Heat watches up for 5th period ... ? huh

GFS MOS has been trending down since yesterday for BOS. 7/1 12z Sat it had 98, now it is 82 12z run today. and gets it no higher than 92 7/2-3. PWM has been going down as well, now no 90 fcst on the MOS. Dirty ridge clouds are a problem along w/ waves of RW/TRW. Also onshore flow from weak FROPAs. You are not going to max out sfc temps what 850 temps suggest in such a pattern. It is unwise hedging so high early on given the uncertainties that have existed all along, esp. for eastern New England. It is better to start more modest far out, and then adjust, if necessary, as the event gets closer.

98f frcst for thurs. Puff puff pass Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/850th/us_ne?run=2026062800&forecastHour=6

PDS? Is that Particularly Dangerous Situation? Thread relevant, nothing today but a passing light shower earlier.

Looks like the NWS is now getting gated... jeez

word - I'm mostly preaching to the others

Weird day on here, but anyway, this chicken looks GOOD

Ok if we're going to just change the title instead of locking make it .. "Beefs about NWS, models, warnings, media, hype, Joe Public's stupidity, a smattering of climate change debate, and appearances by our favorite cranky lunatics. Don't forget bashing mets and young enthusiasts!"

I preach that all of the time here. But you and I know what they mean by the maps. Their probabilities tend to correlate with anomalies. It takes a lot for them to paint any shade of blue on there in the 3-4 week window.

Here something a little different for general FYI. I got this table of highest storm surges and storm tides for Portland ME (PWM). I learned a few things here. Storm surge and storm tide are 2 different things, but we often use them interchangeably. Storm surge is the water height deviation from atmospheric phenomena in itself, nothing else. Storm tide takes into account everything, the atmospheric contribution, monthly astro tides, the 19 year tidal epoch, coast rise/drop, and anything else that may influence a tide height. In the NEUS/Mid-Atlantic we use storm tide the most b/c we have 2 high tides a day and our tidal ranges are high. Along the Gulf Coast, storm surge used most often b/c there is only 1 high tide a day and the tidal range is low. For PWM, 3 of the 5 highest storm surges are not even in the top 20 highest storm tides, so that shows how one is not necessarily related to the other. For proper historical scaling and an objective meteorological POV, storm surge is what one would use b/c that has only one factor. For storm tides, one may note that we've had 5 top ten tides in the last 8 years. But that is not a level playing field. PWM sea level has risen about 8" in 100 years, and more than half of that is due to local land subsidence.

Looks like multiple days of 100s

NWS website down. EDIT: Came back up as soon as I posted this.

smokin and grillin with AB - my favorite cooking YT channel right now. Want some BBQ baked chicken? These came out okay for my first time and I will refine and modify the ingredients.

"Saturday 6/27" weather event is over so prob time to lock the thread?