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Beautiful morning out with a low of 57.

Min 61.4° Almost chilly!

Connecticut (particularly along and southeast of 84) and Rhode Island should be prime today

The WCS 7/1/25 PDO was all the way down to -3.07, the most negative WCS PDO day of any during the couple of years I’ve been following the WCS. This barely beats the -3.04 of 5/31/24 and the ~-3.02 of 10/10/24: Barring anything unexpected, this will likely bounce upward from near this level based on prior WCS dips stopping around -3.

Records: Highs: EWR: 105 (1966) NYC: 103 (1966) LGA: 107 (1966) JFK: 104 (1966) Lows: EWR: 57 (1953) NYC: 54 (1933) LGA: 57 (1969) JFK: 56 (2001) Historical: 1873: A tornado in Hancock County, in far west central Illinois, destroyed several farms. From a distance, witnesses initially thought the tornado was smoke from a fire. A child was killed after being carried 500 yards; 10 other people were injured. 1933: Very cool 52° equaled the July minimum at DC; the "Dog Days" traditionally begin this day of the year. The hot weather period received its name from Sirius, the brightest visible star in the sky and known as the Dog Star. Sirius rises in the east at the same time as the sun this time of the year. (The Weather Channel) 1956: Lightning set off a dynamite charge near Brooksville, FL, killing one woman. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1960: A major hail storm caused $1.5 million dollars in damage across the Denver, CO metro area. The heaviest damage occurred in south Denver, Englewood, Littleton and Golden from wind-driven hail as large as golf balls. Winds were estimated between 60 and 70 mph. Heavy rainfall was estimated at 2 to 3 inches. Hail carried flood waters drifted 3 to 4 feet deep. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1966 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at Philadelphia reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford CT, 105 degrees at Allentown PA, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City established all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1975: Up to 3 inches of rain caused flash flooding throughout Las Vegas, NV. The main damage occurred to vehicles at Caesars Palace with approximately 700 damaged or destroyed with several cars found miles away. North Las Vegas was hardest hit with $3.5 million in damage. Two people drowned in the flood waters. 1987 - Lightning struck and killed three men playing golf on a course near Kingsport TN. The three men had sought shelter from the rain under a tall tree on a small hill. Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in New Jersey, with 5.2 inches reported at Trenton State College. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms around Fort Worth, TX, produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Burleson, along with two inches of rain in thirty minutes. The record low of 46 degrees at Youngstown OH was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the eastern U.S. Bowling Green, KY, was soaked with 4.99 inches of rain during the morning hours, and up to ten inches of rain deluged Oconee County SC. The temperature at Alamosa, CO, soared to a record warm reading of 91 degrees, following a record low of 35 degrees the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

76/ 69 clear. Great stretch of summery weather coming up, warm - hot today, mainly clear and dry - 80s - low 90s in the hotter areas. Passing storms tonight, look to stay mainly north and will make way for a gorgeous fourth of july - beach - bbq - bay - fireworks and outside dry- sunny warm mainly 80s / some 70s shores and north. Sat - mon - warm - hot / humid 80s to low/mid 90s in the hot areas - hottest looks monday - onshore component keeps heat focused inland. Beyond there overall warm - hot , humid and wetter - see onshore frequency. Way beyond continues to see ridge building heights east with heat following for a hot close.

The mandarin off the southeast coast looks important to closely watch. At this moment still early but not for Cape and Islands. Some indirect impacts potentially as early as Sunday and —at risk of stating the obvious here— it’s a big beach/vacation weekend…. Both euro and GFS develop a weak tropical system within 72 hrs. Big ridge in the western Atlantic will preclude a quick escape east, so it will be close to the mid Atlantic/northeast coast at least through 120 hrs. We watch.

Well there's a lot of variables included. This is one of them. I posted some pretty cool PDO stuff a few pages back.. you are right, the later into Summer you go the more important some things are. A side note, but I do really like cold 500mb in any form.. I said this last year. We had almost the same exact strong +AO happening at this time last year, and it was the first time we had a cold 500mb sustained area in long time, I think the whole 2020-2023 period didn't have that. I was saying how it could possibly flip the EPO to negative for the Winter, and we did in fact have some -EPO driven cold. All these composites of best snowfall DCA seasons have cold 500mb all over the N. Hemisphere in the Fall before then.. it doesn't matter so much if there is PNA etc. just that there is widespread 500mb cold. I think it's a new pattern that we entered into last year.

Tomorrow looks like a fantastic summer day with low humidity and reasonable temps.

I actually prefer the opposite.

This composite below is strongly QBO and solar derived.

Just the start

I think February could be pretty balmy before some potential late season stratospheric shennanigans-

I get it, but it's going to miss a whole lot of changes is SSTA, solar, and other variables before winter arrives, so at this range it's hard to get excited one way or the other. Then again, it's hard to get excited over anything at this range.

Notice the two steps forward, one step back type of progression towards the shift back to a warmer Pacific phase that occurred in both 2000 and 2012, where as 2000-2001 flipped strongly positive before 2001-2002 was negative again....2012-2013 was strongly positive and 2013-2014 flipped negative again. This is what I expect to see moving forward....next year will be negative again, but change is afoot IMHO. Its a several year process that will take the latter portion of this decade, but after that we should also be approaching solar min.

This is also added support for poleward Aleutian ridging....looks alot like more early polar composite.

Interesting....since 1950, I have 1955-1956, 1971-1972, 1974-1975, 1984-1985, 1999-2000, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 as second year La Nina evemts. The only two DM periods that did not average -PNA out of that data set are 1999-2000 and 2011-2012, which preceeded swings back towards Pacific warm phase from cold phase. 2021-2022 actually had an extensive mid season +PNA mismatch period, but the seaonal mean was biased negative due to the the very stout RNA that ruined December....I could see a similar outocme this season with perhaps not as promounced -PNA, as that was record setting.

I'm going with a colder than average March, and probably above average Dec-Feb.

There's enough data where it works as per the correlation coefficient. It's /1 so 0.1 is +10%, or 55% chance. 0.3 is +30%, or 65% chance. 0.5 is +50%, or 75% chance. Etc.

That was us yesterday. Hours of thunder through the afternoon and evening but not a drop of rain. Two days ago we got a very brief (~30 sec or so) light shower but I couldn't tell where it was coming from. All of us at the neighborhood pool were looking around like "where's the cloud?" and laughing about it. All I can figure was the winds were blowing it around pretty good on the way down...

Right...its not a perfect 1 correlation because nothing is...doesn't mean there isn't predictive value to be gleaned.

Incidentally, this is in perfect alignments with my thoughts. Thanks.

Roll forward didn't work last year, so we're back to "who knows."