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I'm just going to pretend a red tagger said this. Anyone else vs NWS... I'm going with NWS

very generous!

I give it a 10% shot.

ICON EPS looks a bit better

Well you need to write a thesis statement of all the "ifs" that need to happen...chances are it isn't happening

I feel unsafe

Or you need the northern stream oriented a little further south and more pronounced Verbatim, the ICON, for what little it’s worth, isn’t THAT far off from a bigger event

Much more here..like 17"

I remember that one well. I've never been more disappointed with 10-11". Pure arctic, windswept snow.

Several of the biggest human migration stories since 2010 have a MMGW component as a contributing factor. A major trigger for the refugee crisis and migration into Europe was a crop failure caused by MMGW in the Middle East earlier in the last decade. Same for the wave of migration north from Central America into the U.S. following MMGW crop failures over the last decade. When those stressors combined with the background issues of extreme poverty they tipped the balance to mass migrations to escape those conditions. Within the U.S. some parts of the country with extreme hurricane activity over the last decade due to record SSTs leading to the record rapid intensification of hurricanes have seen a steep increase in homeowners insurance. So many have gotten priced out of those markets. Same across the Western U.S. where drought and wildfire activity have made some spots uninsurable leading to people exiting these regions. The good news is that we have sophisticated weather warning systems here to help save lives. But less developed parts of the world with increasing extremes haven’t been as lucky since they lack the warning systems we have. Parts of the Southeast U.S. have experienced rapid sea level rise since the 1990s combined with subsidence and groundwater pumping leading to saltwater intrusion. So several new high rises have been sinking and older structures have been having issues salt water intrusion into their foundations. We hope that the fragile WAIS will take hundreds of years to slowly melt. But they recently discovered that in past ice ages there were rapid melt episodes where significant sea level rise occurred in just a few decades. Sea level rise following past ice ages wasn’t that big of a deal since the world wasn’t covered by coastal megacities like we have today. So an unexpected rapid sea level rise in any future decades due to our incomplete understanding of ice sheet dynamics would trigger a wave of migrations which would make the migrations since 2010 look tiny in comparison. Plus nearly all of the time when we pass critical climate thresholds we don’t know we have crossed into a new regime until it has already occurred. While the earth is a very resilient system, we really don’t understand how making these rapid alterations to the climate system will fully play out. Ecosystems are delicately balanced and what seems like a small change scan have a a much bigger impact than we understand. This whole climate experiment we have been running reminds me a bit of the great song by Pink Floyd.

Prepare now before it’s too late…

Icon a hair better As much as it’s a longshot, it really wouldn’t take THAT much to get that northern stream S/W more N/S oriented and let it interact with the southern one more Worth watching, not holding my breath

Yep. There’s a chance the Loch Ness Monster really lives in Jamaica Bay and he’s gonna pop his head up and devour a fishing boat.

You'd need that southern vort to keep pace. That was a slight hedge towards the 12z AIFS but you need to see that across the board with the other models. Its the 18z ICON after all.

Gets .3+ to us, but too warm for city ha

Driving up to NYC next week to stay for a week.....hoping and praying they can squeeze out an inch or 2 while i'm there

Big jump though

For Sunday/Monday, availability of cold air will be crucial. Damming is establishing as I write from HP over the northern lakes and LP toward 50/50. NWS believes CAD will be limited. I am not convinced of that......................... I am currently leaning toward a colder solution.

Great snowfall maps!!!

Timing is off though. Northern stream too fast so missing any sort of phase.

Man this thing is coming hard

its a sloppy phase but a step towards euro

My deck is so expansive i don’t think i have the space to upload it here. You will just have to use your imagination. Unfortunately Deck Pic has been banned. I miss him .