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Looks like a high end tropical storm on the cusp of a hurricane

I agree. Especially when heat index are below 90°

Too bad so sad

0Z Icon is a fair bit SW of the 12Z. The 168 is not only well SW of the 12Z 180, but it’s also still moving NW by WNW and isn’t headed toward a trough like it was on 12Z.

Last year had the very cold hits but could not sustain. Things that happened as they did this season, cool and wet may into June and then hot and humid as hell itself with constant thunderstorms. Now zero thunderstorms. I found a lot of those winters that followed had lengthy but not spectacular cold This summer was like 2010 in my backyard. I remember 1966 with the persistent late afternoon thunderstorms . And others. Great reading everything y’all

Pretty well organized despite the marginal SSTs

Very good read!!

drunknstoned wx

The good news in the short-term for the US is that Erin climbed slightly from 17.4N to 17.6N since the previous advisory or at 275 degrees vs a prog to stay at 17.4N/270 degrees. Maybe this is a sign that the latitude will be mainly maintained instead of losing much. We’ll see. Edit: But the NHC is still progging the low point of 17.1N on Wednesday morning. That will be one key benchmark to compare the actual track to.

Have you ever heard of James nichols?

1) Massive implications for worldwide cooling trends due to Grand Solar Minimums. Possible LIA by 2030. 2) I have permanent left knee problems from helping my mom here in Texas with the donkeys. I am scared to death of ice. If I fall, I stay down. 3) Mid Atlantic in Winter 25-26 will be severely impacted. By 2030 we will be seeing massive global cooling transmigrations. Again, I will be dead. Application: Be very damn careful what you wish for. This, is what I get for obsessing over winter for 50 years. Now I am old and wishing I could move to the Amazon where I will be safe from any temperature below 80 degrees. NOW, THAT'S A JEBMAN POST!

I estimate I’ve gotten 33.85” during the last 90 days! May 14-31: 6.7” June 6.85” July 8.25” Aug 1-11: 12.05”! Last year I got 13.3” Aug 1-11, but that included a 3 day total of 10.9” from Debby. I never thought I’d be this close to 8/1-11/24 without a TC! My normal for May 14-Aug 11 is ~19.25” meaning I’ve gotten ~175% of normal! My backyard is like a very wet sponge wherever there’s no standing water. The mosquitos have been in heaven.

=)

Never. ever.

Same run as New England from 38 to Donna in 60 I guess so why would it stop?

lmao I was not expecting the GFS to shift that far west in a single run. Glad to know it still has no idea what it's doing

I think I will end up under 0.2” on Thursday

The Atlantic ridging may actually be doable. Erin has been south of modeled so far and the trend toward a stronger ridge seems to have some legs (though the GFS was always underdoing it imo). The issue is later--that UL steering pattern over the EC in the long range is anything but a NE landfall look--as folks have said. If that massive trough in Canada can be blunted and the ridging in the Atlantic continues to look stronger...then maybe we're talking.

The trend today has been a further south track and that seems more plausible given the convective trend tonight with Erin but generally agree. Still a long way to go.

Just pointing out the potential. Atlantic Canada has been on an exceptional run of hits from recurving TCs. I'm not sure historic is the word, but it would be very hard to do given where we are now. Keep in mind that the general trend today has been a further south track in the short term, and we don't know what that means long term given the uncertainty on how amplified the Atlantic ridge is and the depth of whatever troughing comes out of the eastern US/Canada.

KAUG, lol

Remember that you need two huge changes to occur: 1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic AND 2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. @CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. San Diego

When even SLK at almost 1,700ft is hitting 90F… you know it’s hot.

Gorgeous night for a swim

First one is 12z Bozo