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Euro showing cooler weather this weekend but then wants to build another heat dome right over us. The way this summer has gone im inclined to believe it.

Hey folks in the DMV - Big brobdingnagian rain blob is moving inexorably YOUR way! It's gonna RAIN BUT GOOD on you all! Hey could ya please send some of that OUR way please? We got nuthin but a big 'ole Sonoran upper level RIDGE over Texas - and it's supposed to stay put thru early October with upper 90s every day, upper 70s to low 80s every night! Ugh!

AI

Euro

Euro deluge

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

We don’t look at the GFS, but it’s a damn good hit. AI twin is west too.

0.80" here. Not bad. Good drink for the vegetable garden.

OK, I'll send it Tuesday. What's the postage like for 2" of rain? Got 0.36" with tonight's surprise storm. I'll take it, though Centennial Airport (measuring station 4 miles south) got 1.01".

I'll trade you 2" of rain for a low dew point. I've got extra. I just want a dew point of like 30 or something, really.

.19" on the day here....so spitting.

The Phoon headed towrads SE Janpan is doing nothing,its warning the Yellow Sea and even Sea of Japan SSTS,general speaking there really dont seem like there is break down of the PDO any where soon,these waters shouldnt be warm but cold in a +PDO

Yes, you can clearly see the outflow plume on the N side getting squashed by nrly shear. It is moving steadily S now as well. S movement outside an eye wobble loop usually means not good times ahead as it takes quite strong flow to push a TC bodily S. Most of the time, the LLCC gets exposed in short order. An exception I can think of was Joaquin Oct 2015, but that was much farther S (22-23N) and over the Gulf Stream. Solid, strong banding on the E side of Fay now, but the W side convection is waning.

Yes. Gonna be close. Window has begun to close. If I was to wager I would say Fay does not make it to Hurricane status. Unless there is a Special Update (doubtful) between now and 5am I don’t think it makes it. I highly doubt it would be upgraded at 5am. We’ll see soon enough.

And there full LEAVES on the TREES! One thing @CoastalWxneeds to account for here for the winds.

Wow..

Looks like NHC keeps this just below hurricane status