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But did they have the fun he had ?

Love that deep trough NW of Hawaii. You don't can kick when the players are in position - it would take a whole re-alignment of the N. Pacific 500mb pattern. I think the wild card is the MJO and what it does.

12z 3k NAM had SHSN moving through there

Nice to see the GEFS today at the end of its ens run show the pattern the weeklies have been showing. Always the risk of a can kick. My biggest concern has been that the trough gets stuck in the west and delays the cold coming east. Seems that risk is slowly decreasing. The 5-10th once cold is established it may be game on.

Wow, you must’ve been in a pretty narrow band. We got about three minutes of very light rain in Grittyfield and nothing since.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Point *Cold but less windy overnight. Wind chill values in the low 20s. One last round of weak shortwave energy moves through the region this evening before the stalled upper-level trough and cold pool move well offshore. Not anticipating anything other than increased cloud cover this afternoon and evening, as dry low-level air will make it difficult for any rain to reach the ground. Clouds begin to decrease tonight

No model had this..

Lol yup I feel like a kid on these days Feels great seeing the ground whiten again.. closing in on a inch still light to mod.. wasn't expecting this at all

Fair point. It's an online setting. I added the /s.

Kidding aside. Looks like a nice little burst down there. More fun than your rain and snow shower yesterday.

Even accumulating on the Pinto on blocks now

How about your tongue?

Cigarette?

Always hard to tell with you lol. The point stands.

Had a brief lull now dumping again and sticking to pavement

It might even be dead

...it was a joke

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Pavement a little to warm but grass is getting covered

Euro AI is a colder version of the OP at the end of the run. Big -EPO and the cold spills east.

That's why one should use a series of runs, not any single run. Below is the latest December monthly forecast.

Niña expected to weaken by then.

If this keeps up we might end up with our first inch ground covered!!

Click bait. WB CFS is useless. That's a single run. That model is volatile af and changes like the wind. Only somewhat useful when averaged over several runs. If you look at it on Tropical Tidbits it is the average of the last 12 runs.

I've found that N. Atlantic SSTAs for Wintertime NAO pattern have a real strong correlation the leading May - August. I think later in the Fall and the Winter is more a product of the pattern, but there are pretty high correlation numbers at this time of the year as well. I think the Summer when things stabilize, subsurface temps can be seen in the surface SSTA profile. There is data that allows us to plot a list of 75-analog years to something like following Winter NAO conditions. In May-Aug the correlation goes up to +0.5 (75%)! but in Nov-Dec it's +0.25 (62.5%). Still a pretty strong correlation: You really want to see cold water off the East coast from NC to off of New Foundland. Which I guess we have to some extent. The above map is default positive, so a negative NAO goes to the opposite of those anomalies. The tripole pattern pattern actually holds a future NAO state pretty well. The same tripole pattern works for Jan-Feb to March-Apr NAO, and really throughout the year. Pretty high leading pattern here, given how secondary SSTs are.