All Activity

If we had this kind of thing in summers like 1993, 2010, etc, do you think they would have recorded even more 90/95/100 degree days?

Oh wow happed to look outside and it is raining here. Quite the surprise I mean I saw that it was getting a bit darker out but that has happened so many times before I ignored it.

What a beast. That perfect eye on the San Juan radar.

You don't even need to get that far into the interior on many of these sea breeze days, I'm a few miles south of Sunrise Highway (but also a few miles north of the ocean), and it often doesn't get here until after 3-4 pm. I'm a little suspicious of 6-7 days of 100+ lol, the summer hasn't been hot enough to do that (1993 and 2010 were wall to wall heat.) Wait, are you sure EWR has had 7 days of 100+ Chris? I thought they only had 4. They're still behind 1949 and 1993 but now it's getting close.

This is trochoidal wobbling of the core, as of right now the eye is deviating back to the NW. The greater motion of the storm is as forecast

I mentioned earlier that Erin is embedded in an above mean background pressure regime. So if we get readings down near 910 hPa before Erin levels off, we may see some higher sustained winds yet. We saw this during Dorian and Irma near their peaks, though I'm not saying Erin will get that intense. 150 kts/175 mph sustained doesn't seem unreasonable now, however.

There was a zero chance of that ever coming here, but I love seeing Cat 5's in the middle of the ocean not affecting anyone.

Unfortunately, I'm not in Queens, I'm in Nassau County so there's no way to do that here, do you know if they are planning on expanding the micronet to Nassau County? Lots of us exceeded JFK's 102 degrees in late June. I remember the sea breeze made it there and then got stuck there before backing off lol.

Wow Erin up to 160 already. We dodged a bullet for sure

Don could you run the numbers for 1949 and 1944 at NYC too with this new weighting system you're using? They seem like they are very close (1949 is 9th and 1944 is 10th), if you used your new weighting system would 1944 leapfrog over 1949? August 1944 had so many heat records that still stand to this day. It would be interesting to see how summers rank in terms of record highs and let's bring September into the mix. For either NYC or JFK (or both) can summers be ranked in terms of most record daily high temperatures in JJAS?

Wow at that dropsonde from the previous pass, which splashed down in the SW eyewall.

So, uh, Erin's on the south side if rhe cone again.

While the GFS’s initialization was egregiously high, in a storm with a small intense inner core like this, it will always be playing catchup. Global models simply do not have the granular resolution to initialize a small core correctly, especially in a genuinely extreme RI scenario. Their resolution is far too coarse. Only telescoping models like HAFS have the ability to initialize a storm with Erin’s structure correctly

The new micronet stations in Queens give us a wider understanding of the local sea beeeze influences. Stations closer to the water have fewer 90° and 100° days. So interior portions of Queens are closer to the type of heat which places like Newark and Harrison regularly experience. 2025 days reaching 90° and 100° JFK……………..…90 days…15…100 days…2 Ozone Park……..90 days…17….100 days…2 Maspeth………….90 days..23…100 days…2 LGA…………………90 days…25…100 days..2 Astoria……………..90 days…25…100 days 3 Corona…………….90 days…30...100 days…6 Queensbridge….90 days…31….100 days..3 Harrison…………..90 days…35…100 days…6 Newark…………….90 days…37….100 days..7

You're probably right, I recorded 90 on Thursday and I'm 5 miles east of JFK, while the airport was stuck at 85 (not just that day but the entire week.)

Start a thread in this forum. Call it local impacts of climate change. I got no problem with that. It’s a great tropic. I’d read it so would everyone else. Tom Dick and Harry type daily weather events discussion belongs here. Rain next week, dry pattern this month, ice storm, hurricane, that sort of thing. All that stuff should be here. Septembers getting warmer over the years, warm anomalies increasing in February over the years should be there. That way you can be quantitative and say Septembers are getting warmer and heres the data. Example: If it’s modeled to be 89 on September 12, that is a pattern development for the September thread. You don’t want to say it’s hot on September 12 because of climate change if it turns out it’s 41 on September 14th. Wouldn’t want to say climate change has reversed in 2 days. This is conflating 2 dynamics. All good my friend.

Perfect time to get good data.

so wild so many changes and yet there were no changes between 1948 and 1991 Chris, what made them make all these changes, they should have left it at the 1948 location, this makes the data not look so comparable.... and what was its original location, can that be plotted on a map? It lists its 1948 location as 0 of PO lol Is the present location near Rockaway Parkway, that runs right along the east side of the airport? I can definitely confirm that my readings were much more in line with JFK prior to 1995. Since then, I'm usually a few degrees hotter in the summer. 2010 was the one exception, it makes me wonder how many 90/95/100 days JFK would have recorded in 2010 at the old location lol? PS it's hotter even east of JFK on Long Island, as long as you get away from that Bay....

Well, apparently, recon wants to sample Erin close to peak because they're positioning for yet another pass; this time should be through the NE and SW quadrants of the eye.

Wasn’t today supposed to be coc k and smoke? Dews upper 60’s- 70 . Lol

We throw a lot of faith on models despite the GFS just initializing at 982mb at 12z.

Records:Highs:EWR: 99 (1944)NYC: 95 (2015)LGA: 94 (1944)JFK: 94 (1978) 1944 endless summer continued.... PS Tony, I thought the NYC record high for today was 96 set in 1944-- or was that for yesterday?

as others have stated, unfortunately it is literally the opposite setup.

I like Don's idea of using 1951-1980 climate norms, because it fits in with what a lot of us grew up with. PS it's ALL really interesting, not just temperature trends but dew point and precipitation trends too. I really hate high humidity, but it's still interesting to talk about. You can hate something and still find the discussion on it interesting.