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Chris, that 2022-2023 season was an exception in that it was def. more -PNA that year....it was about as extreme as it gets and it definitely foiled what would have otherwise been a damn good December and March...at least at my latitude. Give that season again with a bit less -PNA and I would be happy.

So... unless I'm wrong, the pattern for summer is established. Weakness in the southern and eastern USA. Generally at or ABOVE normal temps around here. Next chance for FF opportunity in our NYC subforum seems to be in the July 8-15 time frame THOUGH AI seems to deny.

Last Summer was hot, but before then, it wasn't anything major.. mostly the higher averages were from min's. The Winter has been ridiculously -PNA and a little +WPO going a long way to extend that SE ridge north. Even them out and it's +3F over 50 years, there have been some really cold periods too. I just think there is too much focus on explainable things acting like it's a whole globe warming trend. Some of these fluctuation patterns have been in fluctuation during the Winter.. now 80% of the months of the whole year since 2013 have been above average.. so I'll consider that we realistically have a 20% chance of having a cold Winter month. But it's not some global happening that pollution is causing a SE ridge, and not over Montana.

I agree, too....but I would still bet on more snowfall than last year for my locale because I don't think it will be as dry.

Yes...this fits with what I am saying about a decidedly +NAO season still having a period or two of extensive blocking...which don't have to mean a HECS necessarily, either.

The summers began to warm faster in the Northeast starting in 2010. Since then the Northeast has experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. We are on track this summer to make it 13 out of 16. We haven’t had a really cool summer in the Northeast since 2009. All the 3 slightly cooler summers were due to the warmer climate normals. We would often get a cooler summer like 2009 after a series of warmer summers. The winter warming began to really accelerate with the super El Niño in 15-16. So the Northeast has experienced 9 out of the last 10 winters running warmer than average to record warm. This recent 24-25 winter would have only been considered average in earlier 30 year climate eras. We haven’t had a colder winter in the Northeast by historical averages since 14-15. The winter warming across the Northeast has been faster than the summer warming by several degrees.

Agreed on premise. Too bad we have to be sarcastic and use CP as a cooling center. Powers that be have created the situation and for the diehards (point specific accuracy), not acceptable.

still raining here but back edge pushing through...

Greta and Stein holding us, caressing us while whispering odd socially inept things.

Yes, but things also appear to be linging up for a decent period or two of -NAO/-AO....it doesn't have to mean a -NAO/-AO season, nor does it have to mean a wall-to-wall omnipotent PV...ins fact, it most often somewhere in between. Think eclectic, and non-binary.

Nah this stays. Will go away Friday but right back into what we dew best.

Yup. 68.2° here. Near 70 mins used to be rare here. Notsomuch anymore.

Southern edge of NYC subforum verified 5+. See attached. SVR was reserved for southern edge of our subforum - NJ. Two day totals attached as of 730AM July 2. (You can unpin whenever you want).

Someone not heeding the advice below may have been optimistic about the 2023-2024 El Nino due to the belief that the relatively paltry MEI and RONI values were more favorable for cold and snow opportunities in the east. I know that I was. This is a perfect example of why the pose below is so crucial. One other peice of advice would be to not be afraid to admit mistakes and never stop learning.

24 hour total as of 7am was 2.69" and it's still raining.

This is why its important to be multidimensional and as all exhuastive and all-encompassing as possible when doing an outlook...there are no silver bullets. 2011-2012 was also a moderately strong Modoki La Nina that occured during high solar. I think if I had to offer advice to anyone doing an outlook, that sentence would be read "be eclectic in your approach as possible and be ever mindful that nothing operates in a vacuum".

ok this dewey shit can go away now. 72/70 barely got a rain shower last night, and got <0.1" yesterday morning.

No relief up north. Was about 70 for the low.

Chris articulated it best when he said that the west warm pool was competing with, and masking the El Nino to an extent....this is why the RONI and especially the MEI were relatively low.

That was the year thousands of people died in the MW, especially near Chicago.

This matches my memory of 1993 being the last year when we had good data coming out of Central Park. I noticed that wind speeds, snowfall and temperature data were lower quality after that. Do you think using ASOS itself also has something to do with the poor data or is it purely a siting issue? I also see lower quality wind reports and precip type reports coming out of there.

Yea, I'm optimistic about perhaps a-NAO month and a good period or two, but not the DM period in the mean.

Got 1.58" yesterday in New Holland. Dumped right as I left work, fortunately I had my maintenance guy give me a lift in the golf cart out to my car

But average temperatures <> extreme temperatures I would much rather have higher highs than have average temperatures increase. The differences between our highs and lows seems to be becoming less.

0.01” overnight. For the event .50”. I will take it after not having any measurable rain fall since June 28th.