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Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino? The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer. See here: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I looked at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer. Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case. So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino? Such as <gasp!> upcoming winter for the CONUS? Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted? How that sets up or its phase in a given winter has big implications for NAMR! I often wondered if we could get a wicked -NAO during very strong El Nino, what would come out of that? @CoastalWx likely would come up w/ this scenario. "Well, we saw what happened in the epic -NAO in 2009-10. Hmm, since the Mid-Atlantic got crushed, and much of New England missed out, maybe that means the STJ active and warmth pushed N, and the cold pressing more S, that would make SNE in "snow weenie heaven!!!!" I could also add in @ineedsnow here as to thinking that! Also, since I am not an uber winter weenie, is there any actual difference b/c AO and NAO? You look at NOAA here, and I don't see anything. The graph looks a lot like NAO phases. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation

It's been having eruptions off and on for years now. I wouldn't worry too much about it for now. It's nowhere near the same volcano as the original Krakatau was so it wouldn't be able to erupt how it did in the 1880's

That's good historical info. The only item I would as in, is "how strong was El Nino in those years?" Strength of El Nino can be a big factor. And the presence of El Nino is not always a "slam dunk." The type of El Nino is important. Modoki El Nino, which has the highest SST anomalies in cntrl tropical Pacific rather than the ern, that can lead to an epic season, like 2004! Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino. The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer. See here: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I look at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer. Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case. So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino? It might make no difference overall, but what about on more regional levels? And I am not just talking about Atlantic TCs later season, but other things like the upcoming winter for the CONUS? Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted? How that sets up or its phase in a given winter has big implications for NAMR!

Another "dud season" record. 4.4 ACE units through 9/6 for the Atlantic is the lowest season-to-date ACE in the satellite era, and prior, going back to 1941. Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is mostly too low.

Hopefully, this flushes out some grass and hydrilla because it's been a pain in the a** in the last few weeks.

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

Everyone should remember... in winter, it only takes one storm. One blizzard, threading the eye of the needle, is all we need to have a great season.

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

Ref: Accu Weather for Central Park, September 24th for the first low in the 50’s, October 21st for the first low in the 40’s, November 23rd for the first low in the 30’s ….. As always …..

https://dem.ri.gov/agriculture/caps-program-pests-spotted-lanternfly

Ahhh it feels so nice outside

The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year.

Warm Dec

Yes to the second sentence, lol But people are about to find out how much of a problem Elias was. And if I had to bet...Alby stays. But if he doesn't, it's a shame. Dude never got the chance 90% of other rookie managers get. They should've fired Elias last year and started fresh THEN--but now they gotta humiliate somebody just coming in while cleaning house, smh

I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection.

That actually isn't that bad....has you like 4-5" below average and me 5-6". I think we'd all take that. Makes more sense to the than the robust CANSIPS and early EURO run.

SSW are overrated....they are often feast or famine....again, you don't need the PV to be decimated to get blocking. That is a misconception. W QBO obviously favors a stout PV, which makes it more impervious to heat propagation, so these seasons are prone to stratospheric reflection that can still get the job done. See latter January-early Feb 1983.

Well aware....