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EPS mean's making up for CC credits this spring... It's like what's been missing gets added in one 5 day stint. Under a solstice sun. zomb

Probably around the 24th-27th is a decent shot.

Yes.

I’m pretty confident that under 70 afternoons are gone from Monday on for a long spell. Let’s get some 95-102 days in here!

Got a little warmer here than I expected. Sun has finally made its appearance, though certainly not a blue sky kinda day. The lower visibilities are apparent when looking south towards Sugarloaf (which I can hardly see) and w/nw to the Catoctin's.

we have to look at 90 degree days to judge heat not average temperatures. In September 1983 for example, there were 7 90 degree days and a scorching 99 on September 11th. I wonder how many Junes have had 7 90 degree days and peaked at 99? Maybe a couple at most.

It's really like it begins now... From this point on you're gaining a little more summer vibes every day. Front on Thursday is a whisky variety ( severe?) and it's mostly a dry line ...setting stage for a synoptic roll out and the heat arrives.

I think he means a snowstorm to break the dews in December.

My statement was based off the already fake and overly warm latest climate normals.

Well the thing is.. there really is no end

Not sure where that is but SNE General was under .15. A terrible job by anyone calling for rain and using euro

hoping we can manage some big storms at the end of it

July 2, 1993 we had a split of 66/62 (actually similar to today with windy onshore flow and heavy rain.) A few days later we were off to the races with one of the most extreme heatwaves on record and one of the hottest summers on record, many of whose records still stand today (3 days in a row of 100+ at NYC, 5 days in a row of 100+ at EWR and 9 100+ days for the season at EWR, most 90 degree days at NYC with 39, tied 1991.)

If we can keep the ridge from elongating too much into SE Canada in later runs, then a flatter EPS high like below will keep the flow more westerly.

Yes, I wonder if 1980 would be a good analog, I think we had big storms and big heat that summer. A late starting summer but it lasted a long time.

We have to look at recent trends more, September become a summer month now. Even October.

And maybe big storms. Sometimes we see derechos or big storm complexes on the periphery of these heat dome ridges.

This kind of reminds me of the evolution of the hot summer of 1980. From Tony's daily posts you can see that there were a bunch of cold low records from 1980 even at JFK from early to mid June. But the summer really began around June 20th as heat from the west expanded eastward. Although Saint Louis was the epicenter of the heat that summer, NYC had their hottest July-August couplet on record that year with those 62 days averaging over 80 degrees with August 1980 the hottest August on record here! The heat matched up with astronomical summer really well as it began on June 20th and ended September 20th. I remember a few of us brought up 1980 as an analog to this summer.

Sun’s out! Up to 59°

Yes that definitely looks like a NW flow event here, we could have the highest temperatures of the tristate area here!!

Hard to tell over a week out. But the EPS mean has westerly flow. So my guess is that most of the area away from the immediate shore will see their first mid to possibly upper 90s of the season. It’s a strong signal from an ensemble mean to see a 594 DM heat dome in the East over a week out.

That stuff in SW, VA is liking the environment we have in place. It's a tropical jungle out here in the lowland forest.

Terrible here at Colt State Park. Lots of parties ruined. Breezy, light drizzle/rain, 59 degrees. Although there may differing opinions on how much summertime ball sweat some of us enjoy, anything is better than this shit on a Saturday in June.

Cam from Plymouth right now looking north. Sky is def brightening here.

That one turned out to be more about DP the way I recall... I mean 94 was impressive enough, but we had DPs in the garden sites of Wunder like 82... is was sick. KFIT was 94/76 and that site is a notorious DP hole. I thought legit at the time, because the day it maxed ( 96/78 here) both my living room window AC unit, and my fucking refrigerator ( yes, the kitchen main appliance one...) died. As in throw away... right then and there. I remember scrambling to set up ice chests to store stuff, while of course ... no place had any window units in stock because everyone and their buddy Jack made a run on them. I did find a mom n pop that had a window unit, and also similarly a frig - but the frig is actually too big for this kitchen of mine ( oh wel - ), and the window unit made so much sound it was like a aeronautical test at an emission controls complex... I have mini splits now. Bring it on. But yeah...that one turned out to more HI than actual temperature.