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If you want it, I was able to do some area averages in QGIS myself for 80 °N relative to ERA5 1991–2020 Normals May -0.2 °C June -0.4 °C July -0.2 °C August 0.9 °C Another piece of evidence—Arctic Sea ice extent is near the 2011–2020 average. It was not a crazy melt summer but it was not particularly cold, either.

I just got 3.7 ton of coal on Saturday @$220.00 a ton plus delivery from wifes brother in-law. Just have to clean furnace yet an replace stove pipe of my Harmon VF 3000 stoker boiler. Furnace is 37 years old, and still going strong. So I'm partially ready.

Yeah now brightening up.

The September departures across the region match the pattern of strong onshore flow with plenty of clouds and rain. The coolest sites are BDR and LGA with persistent ENW flow off the LI Sound keeping the highs cooler. NYC shows the wet foliage too close to the ASOS lowering the departures artificially. JFK and EWR further from the LI Sound are probably closer to what NYC would show if the site was properly maintained. MPO was the warmest part of the area away from the marine influence. It recorded its 4th warmest September average minimum temperature since the new site was established in 2000. Marches the theme of the warmer minimums leading the departures across the area. September 2026 BDR…-0.7 LGA….-0.6 NYC….-0.9 JFK…..+0.8 ISP…...+0.5 EWR….+0.5 NBW….+1.7 SMQ…..+1.5 MPO…..+1.8 Time Series Summary for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA - Month of Sep Warmest average low temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 55.3 0 2 2018 54.8 0 3 2015 53.3 0 4 2026 52.8 1 5 2021 52.1 0

Sun breaking out a bit

I am looking forward to tracking the first frost/freeze!

Weekend looking much better now

Same

Cloudy again this morning. The forecast is for mostly sunny skies

The Euro issues an extended forecast every two months. These really long range forecasts aren’t always the most accurate. But Nino 1.2 has reached a new all-rime high of +5.345. This is even beyond what the Euro was forecasting. So the warm pool in the EPAC is stronger than anything that we have seen. This makes it plausible that this event could linger at least into next June. Even models like the CFS which had this peaking in +1.2 at only +4.5 are showing it going into at least next June in 1+2. The record breaking WWBs just keep pushing the warm pool further east than model forecasts. So such an extreme heat build up in the EPAC will take to wind down.

Did you notice that the 3 ensembles as of 0z runs continue showing a decently +NAO thru mid October? @Stormchaserchuck1

Add more sheet drizzle

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

The ecmwf was upgraded on May 12, 2026. What do you notice? IFS users will also see the introduction of the new NEMO4-SI³ ocean and sea-ice model, bringing substantial improvements in forecasts and analysis over the marine areas, as well as over 40 new ocean and sea ice-related variables. Key improvements include a more accurate representation of how sea ice affects the power of waves and the interactions between waves and ocean currents, often at play in rougher seas. Other improvements for IFS include improved tropical upper-air temperature and wind forecasts, and improvements to temperature and humidity forecasts around the tropopause. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/ifs-cycle-50r1-aifsv2-live What's likely happening here is actually the new ecmwf 2 m temperatures over the Arctic are more accurate as the near surface inversion is more properly coupled to the ice and the cold ocean. The old 2 m ERA40 climatology is what's too warm.

Low of 62. A little muggy coming up but otherwise solid weather ahead.

This plot is not consistent with 2 m temperature being 2 C below the much older 1958 to 2002 climatology all summer. This area is all ocean/ice.

The rather obvious issue is youre comparing the ecmwf operational forecast 2 m temperature all summer to the ERA40 (old climatology) temperature of the reanalysis (apples to oranges). Copernicus/ECMWF climate pulse i posted is comparing the reanalysis anomalies to 1991-2020 ERA5 climatology and clearly by that standard (apples to apples) the summer temperatures are not crazy anomalous.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·20 minutes ago · Quick turnaround to summerlike warmth to end September and start October Showers expected Friday with cooler weekend forecast trending drier Increasing confidence in frost/freeze risk early next week

Did not expect another .13 last night. wtf.