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There's nothing suggesting it'll be that warm. I say that with the understanding that the Niño is at record levels, but the same models that have been showing a record Niño don't have it that warm. But actually you and I are on the same page wrt how the winter should play out despite any differences of opinion on modeling. Of course, that could change if modeling goes into the crapper as we approach met winter.

Love these temps. Heck of a way to run a torch..

There were a couple Mets and enthusiasts in the New England forum that strongly hinted at this possibility months ago. Hats off to those gentlemen so far.

High of 91. Down to 74 currently. Feels a lot better.

While I think that the NAO will average positive in the DJFM mean, I do not expect wall-to-wall +NAO, and there are some signs of some pretty significant blocking in the second half....even EURO has that, though it's probably overdone. Sept:

@mitchnickIf you look at the Pacific right now, then look at the CANSIPS.....the El Nino is very east-based, whereas the CANSIPS has been trending further east with each run, but is still central-based. It's also much too cool with the waters east of Japan. These inconsistencies coupled with the trend of guidance to underestimate the magnitude of ridges over the past decade plus should leave you very skeptical of the CANSIPS trending NORTHWARD with the lower heights, thus constricting the Canadian edge even further to the north.

Today's Highs: PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 83 EWR: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 no intra hour highs TTN: 81 ACY: 81 ISP: 80 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 NYC: 79

No, it isn't because the EURO is more accurate in the Pacific THIS YEAR. If you want to say all seasonal guidance should be taken with a grain of salt, I agree....but CANSIPS requires a larger grain.

Actually, I was just playing the part of a weenie with JI. But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24 is sorta beyond absurd too.

Ji and "great assessment" isn't something you hear every day lmao

I think the AO will be negative.....EPO and NAO+ in the seasonal mean.

Great assessment.

That logic so absurd considering how poorly the CANSIPS is doing THIS YEAR in the Pacific.

We need something . Anything but this incessant boredom

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall

Thankfully a nice Steiner here today . Pretty decent day other than a sprinkle . This looks to be about 3-4 weeks of very little rain for the region . By early Octorcher things should be quite dry

It will happen well before 2:00 tomorrow

A nice evening for watching Football! Light northerly breezes filtering in dryer air has arrived!

A disappointing 0.20" today.

Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss.

Central Ohio has 9" more rainfall in 31 days, than at this time last year