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See you guys in Maine
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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion
NorthArlington101 replied to snowfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
At least it bombs out over Cape Cod. They deserve it -
Well that part is our fault. We choose what we give time to...and in a setup like this I wouldn't give it much beyond a curious look at the model runs vs. a serious tracking look.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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Congrats ACK on the op GFS.
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We don’t win anything man. Weather… sports? When is the last time you got double digits
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You gotta start looking at this like a slot machine man. We win some. We lose a lot more. But when we hit the big one....
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The gif that keeps on gifing
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Uh oh… -
The only thing it’s capturing is our time wasted
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3 shortwaves on the map at 180 and not a damn thing will come out of it
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CMC not looking great either through 120hrs. Similar to GFS.
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At 144 it is trying to capture and tug it. So close.
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Nina gonna nina...seems favorable wave spacing is one of the hardest things to get!
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CMC a bit GFS-like so far through 120hr. Probably not going to look great either through 7 days.
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Imagine if that kicker the wave spacing was better
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Frustrating to go from a ticking time bomb at 12z across a few deterministic models to a fropa at 0z. Is what it is.
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Just too late to catch it. We are really close to big storm for the entire east coast. Way to early to toss yet.
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Disgusting start to the 00z models
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The GFS is not good for next week. But the AI-GFS looks somewhat promising. And it continues a multi-run improving trend.
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3 steps forward 19 steps back
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Don’t think we want a closed upper level low over Michigan…slight change lol
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On nearly every chase day I've had where I've seen tornadoes, or was within striking distance of tornadoes but missed them due to being dumb, I've seen that sky when approaching/arriving in the target area.
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I'm not sure it means anything, but the 0z GFS-AI looks much better for next week than the GFS. It's also an improvement over 18z. The only time this year that the GFS consistently gave our area snowy runs was Dec 26. And it was wrong. Pretty much any other time it has differed from other guidance and didn't show a wintry outcome, it was right.
