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Subsurface warmth continuing to increase. Getting close to +12 now in spots. The +30C warm pool shifting further east is also a first.

We didn't have a hint of a cloud yesterday......most of the most beautiful evah.

It’s actually quite frosty in the back field despite 39°

NOAA CORe showing (probably?) slightly below-normal temps in May, near-normal temps in June, and near-normal temps in July in the Arctic 80+N area. Contoured at 1F. Very difficult to get real surface temperature departures at all in this area at peak summer due to the cooling and stabilizing effect of the slushy ocean.

CERES net radiation (available thru July) is behaving as expected in a nino, topping out as global temperatures rise and outgoing radiation increases. The 3-year average indicates that net radiation has stabilized at a high level in the past couple of years. Rapid global warming will continue until there is a drop off.

80 on Friday?

Low off 46 degrees this morning. Beautiful sky!

Min 39.0° Lots of 20s up north. HIE 27, HUL 28 Coldest I saw was 23° at Estcourt.

Pfft, if this is what we have to look forward to in the el nino - gray, misty, wet every weekend - bring back the la nina.

JMA has a great site with many different ENSO composites. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

@bluewavewhere are you getting that second anomaly/significance chart from?

One of the historically fun obs out of SCH KSCH 041300Z 30016G26KT 5/16SM TSSN FG OVC005 00/M A2978 RMK LTG HIT TREE AE SLPNO T0000////

Looks like a drier interval relative to JAS coming up this week. The next heavy rainfall potential may come around Columbus Day. Tropical moisture with the super El Niño STJ is forecast to stream north from the Gulf around a strong Southeast ridge.

October is showing overlapping influences compared to past El Nino climatology. The typical -EPO blocking ridge is displaced further south than usual into the Western US. This is a continuing theme from last spring with enhanced mid-latitude ridges. It’s developing a little more south of 2015 which would be the closest match. The North Pacific low looks displaced or stretched into a +WPO position.

The "what if" and "could be" scenarios along w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and opinion are all that matters. It is the business paradigm, and a deplorable one at that. ENSO does not work necessarily in a linear fashion for all regions of the globe, so the notion that this is strongest one on record = worse by default is flawed. Also, you can't compare ones long ago (1877-78) to what would happen today in terms of societal impact. 50M fatalities then and equating to now? Back then, the world was very different. You did not have scale of global economic trade and communication, let alone forecasts that allow us to prepare. And we did just fine in all other very strong El Ninos since 1950, so why is this one going to be *any* different overall? I say "overall" b/c that is key. Yes, the Atlantic TC season is more suppressed than ever, and the EPAC is record levels, but focusing on such details is narrow-minded. What is happening in the big picture, and taking into account to what has happened before in very strong El Ninos, is actually happening as expected for TCs in the Atlantic and EPAC. And we already see signs for the STJ getting active in the LR and already a wet pattern across the Gulf Coast States, and perhaps our first Gulf wave/Miller A storm. There is far to much focus on what is different and the negative, and the same and positive are ignored, ever notice that? You'd think El Nino leads to pure atmospheric chaos, when it clearly does not. It is well understood and has plenty of order, as evidenced what was said in the previous paragraph. And yet you get fear-mongering articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/23/climate/super-el-nino-heat-deaths Notice it is "could cause", again, conditional supposition. But here what they do not tell you. Such warmer global conditions mitigate significant cold-related issues/fatalities globally, and cold causes more fatalities than warm in the mean. The article says that there could be an excess of 3500 fatalities in the U.S. alone, but no mention of lives saved due things like the lack of hurricanes and a mild winter. Clear cherry-picking/omission of facts here. Want harder info and proof? See here about the impacts of the 1997-98 event. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/80/9/1520-0477_1999_080_1819_ioenog_2_0_co_2.xml So they found for costs: • $1.7 billion, and uninsured losses were estimated as $ 1.1 billion based on the fact that insured storm losses normally represent 65% of all structural losses from storms • federal government relief = $400 million; • state assistance costs = $125 million; • agricultural losses = $650 to $700 million; • lost sales in snow-removal equipment = $60- $80 million • losses in the tourist industry = $ 180 to $200 million. For benefits: • reduced heating costs = $6.7 billion; • increased sales of merchandise, homes, and other goods = $5.6 billion; • reductions in costs of street/highway removal of ice and snow = $350-$400 million; • reductions in normal losses due to absence of snowmelt floods and no Atlantic hurricanes = $6.9 billion; • income from increased construction and related employment = $450-$500 million • reduced operating costs to airlines and trucking industry = $160-$ 175million. Totals: LOSSES Human lives lost = 189 Economic losses and costs = $4.2-$4.5 billion BENEFITS Human lives saved = 850 Economic gains = $19.6-$ 19.9 billion So how is this bad net-net? Very strong El Nino has a considerable net benefit. and from an individual intuitive/empirical observation POV, it is not hard to see how such benefits come about in society. The savings in heating costs *alone* exceed all other losses.

really you prefer minus -50-60 below zero degrees in the winter then more power to you..