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D.C. chase

Went negative a bit late this run as it rounds the base, If you get a bit better ridge out west to start this a bit sooner this could go boom.

Super isolated on gfs like a 25 mile band of snow up 95

Yeah, def not gonna play out like that. It's good enough that we all should be interested

Use pivotalweather.com it's much faster

Such a narrow jack zone. Weird depiction. But it's not inconsistent with other models and itself. Idk

Still a day out to see more changes, But good to see something positive any ways, Keep it trending north, Sharper looking trough at H5 this run.

flurries verbatim

Looks like the closed low digs into the base of the trough much better this run but ultimately, aloft doesn't appear too conducive for sfc low development

Second thought, it's a little more impressive than I realized earlier.

yeah, GFS made a shift towards the ECMWF with a more favorable TPV orientation

Well I'll hug the 12z GFS for Sunday morning

It also got down to 29 at KSAV, which was a few degrees colder than the forecasted lower 30s. But it didn’t quite get down to the coldest yet this season, which is the incredible 28 of Nov 11th.

GFS back in the fold. Good to see. Euro better not step back.

It was my first winter back in the area since 2016, and that jan blizzard was still fresh in mind when I was telling my wife what to expect from the winters here. Maybe I jinxed it

Getting there

Maps? I'm waiting on slow ass tropical tidbits.

Snow is white though

Looking meh for all parties involved, but at least there is some historical precedent to a clipper juicing up leading up to gametime. If I was to guess, though, areas slightly to most of our south have the best shot at this one again.

GFS decent for Sunday...I-95 jack DC to Balt

Going to be a bit better on the 12z GFS then 06z run, Baby steps.

Of course soon as I start a thread the gfs says enjoy a few sprinkles on Friday. Oh well.

Gotcha- yea, I don't think they will hit warning there TBH.

Gfs more amplified for sunday