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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It may be hard to get too many inside runners with that look, though....IF THE MODEL IS RIGHT...pretty big time -NAO.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It kinds of seems like the same forecast from 2023, just amplified, which doesn't engender a ton of confidence from me.
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  5. Brian5671
    Nice late summer day-76 and partly cloudy here
  6. Met1985
    I'm hoping for a waterspout lol.
  7. Damage In Tolland
    Absolute ass
  8. GaWx
    Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO: JFM ’24: strong -NAO JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27. However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.
  9. mitchnick
    The Euro's 23/24 winter forecast just stunk. As I previously posted, the Cfs2 was already showing a warm winter by mid September. This year, the difference between the 2 right now is not that great and they are similar to the Cansips, Jamstec, and NMME. So it's going to be a massive failure by all modeling or a consensus success. The only caveat being there's still time for modeling to change to something better or worse depending on one's perspective .
  10. Chinook
    Yeah 140kt by the NHC. That is Cat-5. Insanity
  11. Chinook
    El Nino for the win
  12. jaxjagman
    We certainly can use some rain here,back into a abnormal drought and the yard is starting to get patches
  13. weatherwiz
    For sure. While I've been a huge negative on the AI side of things, I do think they are going to provide value but so long as they are used properly. Unfortunately though, we're also going backwards with a lot of the changes done within the field. The lack of weather balloon launches I think too has been extremely detrimental to forecasting, particularly short-term. Once we, if we, get to the point of quantum computing we will see substantial strides forward with modelling and forecasting.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I will say is that with somewhat less MC influence, perhaps it may be a it easier to pop a -NAO during the coming season, but still a lot working against it in the grand scheme of things....solar cycle is about as hostile as it gets with geomagnetic energy peaking a couple of years removed from solar max.
  15. WxWatcher007
    It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea.
  16. Brian5671
    Nice day out there and great to open up the house for some fresh air 76 here partly cloudy
  17. weatherwiz
    Taker told Mick he was out of his mind when Mick told him to do it. Taker refused at first but Mick was insistent
  18. WxWatcher007
    And 500mb
  19. weatherwiz
    In terms of the statement, "looking at normal temp 15 days out is more accurate" around 15 days out or so climatology is going to have more "skill" versus a forecast model. Something I learned recently but the reason why say the GFS goes out to 15 days is because that is around the period when climatology holds better skill than forecast models.
  20. Moonhowl
    Have fun at the lake hope the storms miss down your way.
  21. Moonhowl
    Wind is blowing and rain dumping in Asheville at the moment.
  22. bncho
    I wouldn’t be too down about it to be completely honest—with all our super Ninos, whether they were basin wide, east based, whatever—we always needed luck. The way I see it is what many other good posters have said on here, it’s essentially a coin flip as of right now and it’s impossible to tell which way it’ll go until winter arrives
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Forecast -NAO is def. more severe this year than 2023, but it was biased too negatively in 2023, and I suspect that is again the case. That being said, this reality is certainly not prohibitive to some intervals of blocking, I just think the model is overdoing it.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sept 2026: Sept 2023:
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shrivel!!!
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023. Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.
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