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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 1d Nepal observed their warmest August nationwide, with the most anomalous region being the border with China/Tibet. It is hard to imagine that record warm temps did not hasten the bedrock/glacier collapse disaster.

Here' the past 30 days temperature data for the Everest Base Camp. All days are above freezing, reaching as warm as 10C. Temperatures below freezing have been rare in the past month. Even Camp 2 at 6464m has been above freezing most days. It took me a few seconds to google up this data. https://scidata.appstate.edu/everest/

50 here this morning. Please let Blizz sleep a few more months. I'm trying to enjoy the last of the warm weather. I'm sure he'll get plenty opportunities to shine this upcoming winter.

New all-time weekly Nino 1+2 ONI at +4.6. This surpasses the previous record set back in June 1983 of +4.5. The highest 1997-1998 was able to achieve was only +4.0. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 02SEP2026 25.3 4.6 13AUG1997 25.0 4.0 29JUN1983 27.0 4.5

A post-collapse picture of the Nepal avalanche site shows multiple meltwater streams from the glacier remains. Including those clearly sourced from cooler elevations above the collapsed zone. Further supporting the above freezing temperature estimates for the site.

Many spots in the Northeast are in the top 5 or 10 for 80° days through September 5th with the early start back in March.

49-50F this AM. Brisk baby

48 degrees this morning. About time for Blizz to do some stretching to loosen up.

This Wednesday looks to be 85F+. Ch6 website....still there. 57F/DP 56F at 6am

47 here.

1 storm can do wonders. Get ready.

Yep just like Jan 2016. That's one of the analog years everyone is throwing around ( 2015-2016 ). Good thing is that the STJ will be very active so there shouldn't be a shortage of storms even if they are rain or a mix bag.

Yep I cant wait for hoodie and sweat pants season.

We now have the lowest Atlantic ACE season-to-date -- 4.4 units as of 9/6. This is the lowest in the satellite era, and prior, since 1941. Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is too low.

Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino? The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer. See here: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I looked at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer. Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case. So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino? Such as <gasp!> the upcoming winter for the CONUS? Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted? I often wondered if we could get a wicked -NAO during very strong El Nino, what would come out of that? @CoastalWx likely would come up w/ this scenario. "Well, we saw what happened in the epic -NAO in 2009-10. Hmm, since the Mid-Atlantic got crushed, and much of New England missed out, maybe that means the STJ active and warmth pushed N, and the cold pressing more S, that would make SNE in "snow weenie heaven!!!!" I could also add in @ineedsnow here as to thinking that! Also, since I am not an uber winter weenie, is there any actual difference between the AO and NAO? You look at NOAA here, and I don't see anything. The graph looks a lot like NAO phases. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation

It's been having eruptions off and on for years now. I wouldn't worry too much about it for now. It's nowhere near the same volcano as the original Krakatau was so it wouldn't be able to erupt how it did in the 1880's

That's good historical info. The only item I would as in, is "how strong was El Nino in those years?" Strength of El Nino can be a big factor. And the presence of El Nino is not always a "slam dunk." The type of El Nino is important. Modoki El Nino, which has the highest SST anomalies in cntrl tropical Pacific rather than the ern, that can lead to an epic season, like 2004! Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino. The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer. See here: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I look at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer. Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case. So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino? It might make no difference overall, but what about on more regional levels? And I am not just talking about Atlantic TCs later season, but other things like the upcoming winter for the CONUS? Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted? How that sets up or its phase in a given winter has big implications for NAMR!

Another "dud season" record. 4.4 ACE units through 9/6 for the Atlantic is the lowest season-to-date ACE in the satellite era, and prior, going back to 1941. Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is mostly too low.