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I think moving half an hour ahead is a fair compromise.

The longest day isn't really on the summer solstice, it's different days in different places depending on your latitude and some other factors. For us it's usually June 26th.

Your wife needs to be "reeducated" lol Permanent EDT is the way to go

Possibly, but otherwise these weather *wars* will continue. If we could come up with a single number to describe the city it would dampen down biases any one individual station might have (NYC poorly sited, LGA/EWR running too hot, JFK seabreeze interference, etc.)

It'll be disappointing ... that's the forecast for winter. this overall social media's real purpose is to serve as a support group for folks that have a weird kind of emotional regulation issue vs being "dosed" by big model depictions. annnnd like the last 10 years of pounding lessons yet zero apparent retention ... next winter will succeed in giving plenty of reasons to make the aa meetings on time. haha, stick to forecasting the dosage amplitude - you'll all be seasonal heroes

Interesting that both pac and atl have similar spatial patterns

The one other thing I really need to start doing is something like a weekly monitoring/assessment once we enter the Fall. Take some time and assess the real-time global regime, analyze how forecast models are evolving the pattern globally, and closely analyze the medium/long range and then try and do some sort of verification once we get into that time range. I just hope I get time to do this...I start grad school in a few months and doing 2 classes + still working so I am going to have to discipline myself

The best lapse rates are from like 850 to 600 at present, and of course as we heat up and clear out this shallow inversion it'll extend from the surface up. The upper levels are sort of meh. And that applies to both lapse rates and winds. I kind of think the tornado risk may be slightly underplayed, but the severe hail and straight line wind risk might be overplayed. Heavy downpours regardless, albeit hopefully transient enough to avoid flash flood risk.

How does the EURO AI work? It's not as hot as the regular Euro and focuses the 100 degree heat over NJ instead of taking it east through NYC and the coast.

Yes the miniscule loss in daylight is attributed to sunrise till Jul 9th when minimal slow decrease in sunset begins.

Average all of those locations?? They are miles away from each other. I find microclimates and tracking weather interesting and averaging among multiple locations kills that.

There are very varied impacts of volcanic eruptions that are dependent on magnitude and location of said eruption....I read some articules on it after Honga a couple of years ago.

I think we have another week of slightly later sunsets. (Here in Cherry Hill it peaks at 8:32pm) My wife, who is hoping for permanent EST would see a sunrise time as early as 4:30am! I know many wish to see permanent Standard time but I personally love the late sunsets.

Do you think at least partially transferring the NWS/NOAA functions to private ownership would help matters? Perhaps we can get a rich billionaire who cares about climate and weather to fund a supercomputing system sufficiently powerful to run 4dVar? I'm being ironic, I don't think any of them care, but the funding has to come from somewhere and we have a few billionaires funding space trips so why not get them to invest in climate and weather too? Note how NASA has partnerships with these private space companies, maybe NWS and NOAA need to do the same thing? Public funding only gets you so far and we are in the era when people want to spend less and save more, so maybe we are on the way to privatizing everything now and shifting the burden to those who can afford it....

My gut says anyone E of Altoona gets some strong storms and winds in to the 40s but the stronger severe stuff is E of Lancaster.

Agreed, probably not flushed out quite yet. One thing I really want to explore though is getting a better understanding of the wildfire smoke and that volcanic eruption from, what a year or two ago and developing much more knowledge of the chemical reactions which occur higher in the atmosphere. I know there must be multiple papers on this so that's where i will start but I have to think these episodes have had a much greater impact and is being overlooked. I mean the abundance of the smoke (assuming its getting into the stratosphere but the water vapor from the eruption)...the concentration of the particles have had to impact how the upper atmosphere structures and evolves.

The solution is to average out NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA and then you get the full of range of weather in New York City (which covers 5 boroughs). I believe LGA runs too hot now, look at how elevated their lows are compared to everyone else and it has the highest concentration of traffic now, which is much worse now than it was during the 30s-50s period when NYC was hotter (as was JFK.)

I think we are currently in a state of flux, but I don't think the prior regime has been completely "flushed out" quite yet....put it that way. Anyway, OT here.

Prior to the NWS leaving 30 Rock back in the early 1990s, they really did a great job maintaining the site at the castle. I actually got to meet the forecasters on a trip to the office back in the 80s. Granted they had plenty of struggles with vandals especially during the 1970s since the equipment was out in the open. So I guess they made the decision that hiding the equipment under the trees in 1995 was the way to go. Even though it has resulted in the high temperatures running 2° to perhaps 4° cooler on warm sunny days then they did when the ASOS was further from the trees. This is why the NWS didn’t like substituting LGA for NYC when they were waiting for the new equipment to arrive in the park. Since they are quoted in this NYT article stating that LGA used to run cooler than NYC in those days when the trees weren’t an issue. This is the opposite of what has happened in the last 30 years. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

That said, orientation is not a big deal when the ENSO event meager, as this one should be...but all things being equal, I'd still prefer to see to see it east-based. Defintely some interesting early season hedges to be made with a cool/ENSO easterly QBO combo....

With all of the issues turf grasses have you would almost think they aren’t native here. Oh wait. The same goes for european fruits too. Plums, peaches, apples, pears, cherries, and grapes? Lots of disease and pest issues. American persimmons and pawpaws? Not so much. Some of those native sedge grasses are a vibe though. I may do a little native garden with some of them.

I plan on doing this shortly. I've been working on composites a bit. I also want to work on a different approach which isn't as ENSO focused...which will help this year given we may be more neutral-ish. But I was thinking this...we are at a much different atmospheric state across the hemisphere now than we have been over the last several years, particularly across the PAC/CONUS...may not mean anything but we have been saying we need the atmosphere to flush out and maybe this is it!

Part of the issue lies in the initialization scheme. The top models (ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET) all use the 4dVar initialization. Some have used it for more than a decade. Despite its demonstrated benefits, it was never integrated in any of the GFS upgrades perhaps because the U.S. lacks sufficient computing capacity. All other things being equal, that puts the model at a disadvantage. Its resolution is also more coarse than that for the leading models. With the disinvestment in the NWS and NOAA now underway, that won't change anytime soon.

tomorrow is the first day of summer around 10:30 am? Just in time!

One of my favorite parts of convective forecasting is the nowcasting element! Yes it has, even elsewhere across the country too. 3km did much better in the midwest yesterday.