As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits.
Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms)
Central Pennsylvania and portions of Maryland:
A warm front is expected to lift into the Northeast on Wednesday. The focus is across the warm sector where some strong wind shear combines with surface/low-level instability to enhance the severe
As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, a warmer, more humid air-mass floods into the Northeast. Some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits, particularly across portions of New York and west-central New England.
Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms)
Interior New England, New York, northwestern New Jersey and norther Pennsylvania:
As a warm front clears, an increas
Low pressure develops across Pennsylvania later today and I am expecting at least some isolated severe thunderstorms across the region.
Isolated thunderstorm threat...
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with just some high clouds across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Daytime heating is expected to push surface temperatures well into the 80's along with dew-points that are already in the upper 60's to lower 70's. In the warm sector well ahead of a cold front (east of the Appalachi
An upper level trough across the Great Lakes is associated with areas of surface low pressure in and around New York State. Bands of showers and thunderstorms have been pinwheeling through the eastern United States as a result. By afternoon, more organized thunderstorm development is expected and some storms could become severe.
Isolated severe thunderstorm threat...
Low pressure is spinning across New York State. An area of increased wind shear is in place along the east of the Appalachians.
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered.
A clipper system that gave way to a coastal low just south of Long Island resulted in generally 2 to 4 inches of snow across the state. There were a few localized totals of just over 4 inches, but there were no reports over 5.0 inches. The highest totals were across
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. Blowing and drifting snow made it difficult to obtain an accurate measurement. Some towns had multiple reports and totals that appeared to be too high based off of surrounding reports were not used.
Some warm-advection snow lifted into Connecticut as early as the ni
Here's a recap of the 2013 tornado season across the Northeast.
Connecticut had four reports of tornadoes during 2013, which is roughly twice the average amount of about two. Keep in mind that 2012 had no tornadoes in the state, so one could argue that this was nature's way of balancing itself out.
Elsewhere, New Jersey was the only other state in the Northeast with above average tornado reports. (They average two per year, but had three in 2013) Maine is not pictured here, but Maine had at le
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered.
Flurries began to move into Connecticut shortly after daybreak on January 21st. The snow gradually overspread the state from southwest to northeast and light accumulations were noted across southwestern Connecticut by midday.
As an area of low pressure developed of
Here are some snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered.
Light snow overspread the state from southwest to northeast shortly after midnight on February 5th. This was ahead of a low pressure system that was moving into the eastern Ohio Valley. The snow quickly became heavy at times around daybreak, with snowfall rates of 1
Here are some filtered snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered.
Flurries and light snow moved into Connecticut around daybreak on February 18th as low pressure formed east of New Jersey. The snow moved east and began to develop into a steadier area of snow across New Haven and Middlesex Counties. As a compact, but poten
A colder than average pattern may persist into April across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Based on the information I've been reviewing over the past several days, I have enough confidence to post a temperature outlook for the month of April.
As I see it, below average temperatures will likely continue from the Great Lakes into interior New England and up toward Hudson Bay Canada. I expect a continuation of troughiness extending from southeast Canada into portions of the Northeast. While the h
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across portions of the Plains and Mississippi River Valley.
Ongoing thunderstorms early this morning may be marginally severe across portions of Iowa, northern Missouri and Illinois. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely from late morning into the early afternoon hours further south before a more serious threat develops.
Sunday afternoon, low pressure will be in the vicinity of the central border between Texas and Oklahoma. An upper level shortwa
Following up a cold winter across much of the country, April has proven to be a transition month. Although the month started mild for a large portion of the country, much cooler air has moved in for the middle of the month. There are signs, however, that any negative temperature departures after April 20th into the start of May will be relatively insignificant.
Before looking at May, it makes sense to look at the April forecast. For the most part, everything is going to plan from the forecast t
Here are some filtered snowfall maps that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered.
After early afternoon highs in the lower 60s across much of Connecticut on April 15th, a strong cold front moved through the area at night. Rain quickly changed to sleet and snow across the higher elevations of western Connecticut between 8 and 11 p.m. Alth
There was a lot of anticipation leading up to July 15th. Some argued there was a "very impressive" severe setup unfolding for (southern) New England, but there was plenty of disagreement with the placement and potential severity of such an event.
For a quick summary, the severe weather parameters in place (both forecast prior and during) the event were marginal compared to past severe events in southern New England. Not one important severe weather parameter was terribly impressive and there we
The United States has a greater frequency of tornadoes than most other counties. For many factors, the vast majority of tornadoes occur east of the Rocky Mountains across the continental U.S. Although the central and southern Plains region is widely considered to be "Tornado Alley," there are other areas that see just as many tornadoes, if not even more.
The two graphics below are adaptations of NOAA/NWS SPC graphics found in their Tornado Environmental Browser. A broad area from the east slope
Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.
Light rain, with light snow across the higher elevations, developed across Connecticut during the evening hours of November 13th. The steadiest and heaviest snow fell around midnight and t
An early season storm is expected to bring a heavy, wet snow to the interior hills of the upper mid-Atlantic region and New England on Wednesday into very early Thanksgiving morning. While the big cities from Philadelphia to New York and Boston can expect some snow, the greatest amounts will be to their north and west.
Low pressure will develop along the Carolina coast this morning and ride up the East Coast. With the low passing close to, if not over Cape Cod, no strong high pressure center in
Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.
Light rain developed during the morning hours on November 26th and mixed with some sleet inland. Wet snow initially confined to the far northwestern corner of the state. As steadier precip
A major snow storm is projected to bring blizzard conditions to much of New England Monday night through Tuesday. When all is said and done, many areas in and around the Boston area can expect two feet of snow with locally higher amounts.
Despite the European model staying the course with greater snowfall amounts for areas around New York and New Jersey, it appears that most other data favors sharply decreasing snowfall amounts west of southern New England. As low pressure rapidly intensifies a
Here is a final snowfall forecast for the upper mid-Atlantic region and southern New England for the Blizzard of 2015. No major changes were made to the forecast, but the western fringe was trimmed somewhat.
It's becoming a nowcast situation, as the computer models are relatively all over the place. The 12z Euro is one extreme (heavy west), with the 00z RGEM further east and much less impressive. Based on radar trends, the previous forecast map and a consideration to the model consensus, here i
Here is a snowfall map using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.
Periods of light snow and flurries began on the morning of Monday, January 26th and continued through the afternoon. It wasn't until after dark that the snow became heavy at times, particularly across th
There have been no major changes to the previous forecast. Some of the snowfall totals have been trimmed back ever so slightly. A fairly widespread area of 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected, with a jackpot across much of interior Massachusetts, where most or all of the precipitation should fall as snow.
Snow becomes heavy at times early Monday morning and begins to mix with sleet and freezing rain by the morning rush around New York City. The mixing then spreads into southern New England by mi
Here is a snowfall map using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.
Occasional flurries developed on Sunday, February 1st across Connecticut. A steadier snow moved in after midnight with some moderate to heavy snow during the morning hours on February 1st.
By 7 to 8 a.m
Here is a snowfall map using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included.
This event was spread out over three days as low pressure passed along a frontal boundary, draped from the Ohio Valley into southern New England. On the first day, Saturday, February 7th, occasional flur
