Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Portions of the subforum (mainly northwest of the Illinois River) have been upgraded to a Slight Risk: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MO... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO MN...WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO IL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG HEATING FROM SOUTHERN WI...ACROSS EASTERN IA...INTO MO. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION AND TRENDS IN DESTABILIZATION... HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THIS REGION TO SLIGHT RISK. ILX is also hitting hard at the hopefully drought-busting heavy rains that will arrive in our region just in time for the holiday weekend (perfect timing for many ). http://www.weather.gov/ilx/holiday-heavyrain So this thread could be a catch-all for whatever severe risks/heavy rain events transpire throughout this holiday weekend and into the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Somebody is going to end up with a lot of rain. Also look what the rain area does to the temps. This might be overdone...would be very impressive to see temps stuck in the 50s/near 60 in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Some varying solutions in the guidance tonight. Latest HRRR offers up a split, leaving most of Chicago metro with basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Yikes, those temps would be extremely impressive, considering we are heading into the dog days of summer, seriously though some pretty foul timing. Few models have some 7" lollipops in east central Missouri, with a 5" zone just north of STL. Not gonn be good for the poor river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I do recall a few years ago we had a July 4th where temps didn't reach above 70. I'm thinking 2010 perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 St Louis is going with a band of 4-6", locally higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 St Louis is going with a band of 4-6", locally higher. Maybe some 2' drifts too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Maybe some 2' drifts too? No, looks like a wet rain this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Get ready Stebo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Get ready Stebo! HRRRMW_prec_precacc_015.png I will pound the 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Wind damage reported in Denver, Iowa (north of Waterloo). Per DMX: NWUS53 KDMX 302208LSRDMXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA508 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0230 PM TSTM WND DMG DENVER 42.67N 92.33W06/30/2016 BREMER IA PUBLICPUBLIC REPORTED MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF TREEDAMAGE INCLUDING NUMEROUS BRANCHES DOWN.RELAYED VIA KWWL. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED. KWWL-7 Waterloo story: http://www.kwwl.com/story/32349520/2016/06/30/strong-storms-cause-damage-in-bremer-county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 DVN also reporting two hail reports this evening, the first from Arbela, MO (Scotland County); and the other from Bushnell, IL (McDonough County): PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL716 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0555 PM HAIL ARBELA 40.46N 92.02W06/30/2016 E1.00 INCH SCOTLAND MO PUBLICRELAYED BY NWS ST LOUIS. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL818 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0813 PM HAIL BUSHNELL 40.55N 90.50W06/30/2016 E0.50 INCH MCDONOUGH IL LAW ENFORCEMENTPEA TO DIME SIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Upstream radar looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Upstream radar looks like garbage. Remember what I said, I am well prepared for a 0.00" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Remember what I said, I am well prepared for a 0.00" tonight. Going into the big heat spell with quite possibly almost no rain in the prior 2 weeks (by that time, even longer for you) will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Not one drop here tonight. Rain was way too scattered to benefit many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Some decent stuff down by Kankakee but it's a narrow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Going into the big heat spell with quite possibly almost no rain in the prior 2 weeks (by that time, even longer for you) will be fun.Add in the fact that areas to the south are going to get rain and you add that ambient moisture to the mix. Going to be very hot and potentially very humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Lather up at the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Alek' call for a more southerly solution for the Sunday/Monday timeframe looks money, a majority of the models have shifted the bulk of the heavy precipitation south over the last few runs. Still should see a good 1" soaker. STL gonna get a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Latest Day 3 for Sunday has a small Slight for far S IL, far SW IN, W KY, and SE MO for now--while SPC is not ruling a larger Slight Risk area in later outlooks: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html ...PARTS OF SERN KS/ERN OK EWD TO SERN VA/CAROLINAS COASTS... A ROUGHLY W-E SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE NC/VA AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BENEATH ENHANCED /30 TO 45 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS. AWAY FROM AREAS OF LINGERING CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION...HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...AND SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS REGARDING RIPPLES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD -- AND THUS IN LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE CONCENTRATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS...WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD LOW-PROBABILITY RISK AREA ATTM. WITH MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE AREA OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL INVOF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...WILL HIGHLIGHT A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS OF SEVERE RISK WITHIN THE BROADER RISK AREA RESERVED FOR LATER OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 No Day 4-8 risk areas posted yet but SPC not ruling out severe in part of this subforum for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016 VALID 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUT SHOWS LARGE-SCALE/GENERAL SIMILARITY THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6-7...DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT EVEN EARLY ON WITH THE DETAILS IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF MORE SUBTLE FEATURES /THOSE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAILY CONVECTIVE EPISODES/. THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS ALOFT BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL...WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT/ZONAL H5 PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD SUGGESTIVE OF MEMBER-TO-MEMBER OFFSETS IN LOCATION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS. IN GENERAL...HINTS THAT SOME SEVERE RISK WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY DAY 4 EXIST WITHIN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND POSSIBLY WWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. DETAILS THOUGH REMAIN QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF PREDICTABILITY OF SMALLER-SCALE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW FIELD. FOCUS FOR SEVERE RISK SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT NWWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AREA/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE DAYS 5-6 TIME FRAME...WITH A SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO SHIFT W-E ACROSS THIS REGION. AGAIN HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION OF FEATURES PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING OF SPECIFIC RISK AREAS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DEVIATIONS INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD -- EVEN WITH LARGER-SCALE FEATURES...AN OVERALL LACK OF CERTAINTY/CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATING AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD SUGGESTS MAINTENANCE OF LOW-PREDICTABILITY WORDING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ..GOSS.. 07/01/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 ILX's latest Special Weather Statement for the central and southern parts of the CWA concerning the heavy rain is now indicating that the I-70 corridor will be the hot spot for the heaviest rain (3-4 inches), with 2-3 possible along the I-72 corridor. http://www.weather.gov/ilx/holiday-heavyrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 12z NAM stronger/slower and more north than 00z run...don't think that wound up solution will happen 12z gfs so far a touch stronger and a touch more north assuming NAM is going 50% overboard compared to 00z....both models trending slightly stronger and slightly more north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 LOL.....12z 4K NAM 22 inch bulls eye just north of MCI, also more south then NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 LOL.....12z 4K NAM 22 inch bulls eye just north of MCI, also more south then NAM That model is usually good for wild bullseyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Ended up with around .3 at DTW, judging by the lack of puddles at home I'd say we got a bit less. I'm shocked we got anything though, radar looked fairly scarce last night before I went to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 past couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Looks like the axis of heaviest rain has been shifting north of models as of late. It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues. Don't see why not with lack of blocking to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Looks like the axis of heaviest rain has been shifting north of models as of late. It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues. Don't see why not with lack of blocking to our north The initial sfc high/dry air feed is a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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