downeastnc Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 So when do we start seeing G IV missions flying over the southwest atlantic? Looks like tomorrow 000 NOUS42 KNHC 231435 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1035 AM EDT SAT 23 AUGUST 2014 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2014 TCPOD NUMBER.....14-084 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 43 A. 24/1730Z, 2330Z A. 24/2100Z B. AFXXX 0804A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0904A CYCLONE C. 24/1515Z C. 24/1800Z D. 23.1N 74.0W D. 23.3N 74.1W E. 24/1715Z TO 24/2330Z E. 24/2000Z TO 25/0000Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42 A. 25/0530Z, 1130Z A. 25/0900Z B. AFXXX 1004A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 1104A CYCLONE C. 25/0300Z C. 25/0600Z D. 23.9N 74.4W D. 24.0N 74.4W E. 25/0515Z TO 25/1130Z E. 25/0800Z TO 25/1200Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 3. REMARKS: A G-IV RESEARCH MISSION WILL DEPART KMCF AT 24/1730Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Can't wait to see what all the 'Gloom and Doom' Weather authority FB pages start painting.... What would JB do? What are his thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Yeah that's a awful big cone of uncertainty at 5 days huh lol...... More like a bubble than a cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Epic hurricane coming to possibly hit NC, SC, FL, and GA. It's possibly going to be a cat 4 rivaling Hugo.They usually seem to find a residential area with a high concentration of trailer homes, so that should put Waycross directly in the cross hairs!GSP mentioned the coldfront and trough is 24 hours faster on today's model runs than yesterday's , so that could cause the recurve possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Hurricane Hunters just found 1002.3mb over Turks & Caicos Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 This thing looks to be getting its act together nicely on visible Since it is HUGE ...it will obviously take some time to strengthen... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30 weather underground has nice up to the minute or so links for obs over Turks/Caicos thru the nite http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78114.html? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 18z HWRF Going crazy with it pushing it to Cat 4 off the SC/GA coast with pressures of 954mb. Pressure: Wind Speeds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 This brings me no rain.....again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The cone of uncertainty has shifted East with the latest update from NHC. Local guy said winds are at 40 mph, per latest update, but still hasn't been named because its very poorly organized!? I have never heard of this before and thought the winds and closed circulation were the key for TS name, organization shouldn't matter! Anybody heard of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 This one's gone. Yawn yawn, another fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 This one's gone. Yawn yawn, another fish storm. Yeah I think we are seeing a dominate track being nailed down OTS. But still worth giving a look every couple of hours. Who knows whats going to happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Looks like a great track for surfers if this thing can get nice and wound up. Too bad I won't be able to take any time off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Has there been a single convective cloud pop up in the Gulf of Mexico this hurricane season? Everything in the Atlantic for the last few seasons have been either choked out by the SAL and the ones that do develop are no-doubt fish storm. Remember back at the turn of the century when all these climate experts said we were entering a multi-decade run of busy activity in the Atlantic basin? So much for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Has there been a single convective cloud pop up in the Gulf of Mexico this hurricane season? Everything in the Atlantic for the last few seasons have been either choked out by the SAL and the ones that do develop are no-doubt fish storm. Remember back at the turn of the century when all these climate experts said we were entering a multi-decade run of busy activity in the Atlantic basin? So much for that... Yeah, it's been quiet for a while now. When is the last time we had a real land falling system come into the se coast and go inland (not a coastal skirter)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Has there been a single convective cloud pop up in the Gulf of Mexico this hurricane season? Everything in the Atlantic for the last few seasons have been either choked out by the SAL and the ones that do develop are no-doubt fish storm. Remember back at the turn of the century when all these climate experts said we were entering a multi-decade run of busy activity in the Atlantic basin? So much for that... I still think we're in the multi-decade run of busy activity which began around 1995, when we entered the positive AMO stage. They last 30-40 years, so we're about half way through. Of course there are down times, which I believe we're in currently. If you look at the +AMO back from about 1925 to about 1965, they had -AMO periods mixed in. Of course the 40s and 50s were very active, but there were quiet years in the bunch. The Atlantic has been very active up until about 2012. We're just in a little quiet period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Yeah, it's been quiet for a while now. When is the last time we had a real land falling system come into the se coast and go inland (not a coastal skirter)? Honestly...I'm starting to believe that the storm tracks like Hugo or Fran are just the big time exceptions rather than the rule. The one big thing you must have for an Atlantic storm to hit the Southeast Coast perpendicular is a 500mb surface ridge centered along or north of Bermuda. Here in recent history there has been too much lower heights in the Western Atlantic with the ridge only nosing into the SW Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I still think we're in the multi-decade run of busy activity which began around 1995, when we entered the positive AMO stage. They last 30-40 years, so we're about half way through. Of course there are down times, which I believe we're in currently. If you look at the +AMO back from about 1925 to about 1965, they had -AMO periods mixed in. Of course the 40s and 50s were very active, but there were quiet years in the bunch. The Atlantic has been very active up until about 2012. We're just in a little quiet period. You're probably correct on that...the period from 95 to about 2007 was really active and from there it has slowed some with the last couple being really slow. Also, just to piggy-back on the comments I made earlier about the Gulf...when I started seeing these flat ridges at 500 and 850mb showing up over Florida back in June, I figured the GOM would be on lockdown for a while. Maybe that will change going into September. One thing I do know...if one does develop in the NW Caribbean or Gulf, it will be sitting over un-tapped waters which could be troublesome for some area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Honestly...I'm starting to believe that the storm tracks like Hugo or Fran are just the big time exceptions rather than the rule. The one big thing you must have for an Atlantic storm to hit the Southeast Coast perpendicular is a 500mb surface ridge centered along or north of Bermuda. Here in recent history there has been too much lower heights in the Western Atlantic with the ridge only nosing into the SW Atlantic. They are rare, it takes a strong H sliding off the NE coast and usually some sort of SW drifting ULL feature over the lower Mississippi river valley or GOM. Fran was a beast though only time in my life we were gusting over 100 during a hurricane and really the only other time I know of other than Hazel it hit 100+ in gust for interior eastern NC. Sustained probably peaked around 60-65 during that time it was rough, especially since it was the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Watching the rapid scan over the last hour of daylight, it appears that the system has slowed or stalled, and might even be drifting to the West slightly (Unless what is visible is one of the multiple vortices mentioned earlier today in the NHC disco)... http://rammb.cira.co...oop_speed_ms=80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 We all should have looked into the Cristobal, and saw that it was going ots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 LOL +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Yeah, it's been quiet for a while now. When is the last time we had a real land falling system come into the se coast and go inland (not a coastal skirter)? Isabel 2003 was the last hurricane to make it well inland in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Isabel 2003 was the last hurricane to make it well inland in the Carolinas. Really Isabel was wimpy though for all but the NE corner of the state, here we got the SW eyewall and got maybe gust to 55 but 50 miles NE of here had gust well into the 80's and 90's..... Christobal looks like he might just be a pain in the but if he stalls it will be interesting to see if the models change up any.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Both Hurricane Hunter planes flying the storm just marked the lowest pressure due west of their previous passes. Broadening wider or moving west. Pressure down to 998mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Both Hurricane Hunter planes flying the storm just marked the lowest pressure due west of their previous passes. Broadening wider or moving west. Pressure down to 998mb. Gonna do its own thing it looks like, doubt it does enough crazy stuff to put anyone under the gun but I wouldn't be surprised to see some west shift in the track at 11 at least short term.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Gonna do its own thing it looks like, doubt it does enough crazy stuff to put anyone under the gun but I wouldn't be surprised to see some west shift in the track at 11 at least short term.... Yep. It will be fun to watch this thing shoot north when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 Check out Christobal pressure dropping and its now a hurricane..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Honestly...I'm starting to believe that the storm tracks like Hugo or Fran are just the big time exceptions rather than the rule. The one big thing you must have for an Atlantic storm to hit the Southeast Coast perpendicular is a 500mb surface ridge centered along or north of Bermuda. Here in recent history there has been too much lower heights in the Western Atlantic with the ridge only nosing into the SW Atlantic. You are spot on correct and thankfully directly devestating perpendicular hits in the Carolinas are a very rare event.However when they do happen, people best take them seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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