Yorkpa25 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Watch the EURO have a warmer more gfs type solution. Seems to be getting beat to the punch lately. Warm and strung out first wave, warm second wave and the coastal a bit weaker,prob mid 980s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Storm #2 may end up being all rain or rain/snow if the euro is anywhere close but at least winter settles in christmas week with other chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What does the GFS show beyond the rainstorm next week? Does the cold come in at all? Any other LR potential before 12/25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What does the GFS show beyond the rainstorm next week? Does the cold come in at all? Any other LR potential before 12/25? Cold,with a storm potential here and there..... Nothing like the 1st half. PNA spike, and the we go split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What does the GFS show beyond the rainstorm next week? Does the cold come in at all? Any other LR potential before 12/25? The storm near Christmas is suppressed well to the south. Really cold air in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It happens on my phone all the time, autocorrect is a blessing and a curse... No slack needed, I was just playing around... Haha, I know. Sorry if that previous post came off hostile. Not my intention at all brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The storm near Christmas is suppressed well to the south. Really cold air in the long range. You can say that again. 0C 850 Christmas morning all the way down to Tampa. BBRRRRRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Last week the Euro/UKMET were honking a phased deep system cutting through the Lakes for this past weekend, while the GFS was being more progressive with the northern vort, hence missing the phase and shearing the whole thing out into two relatively weak* pieces, which in the end is exactly what happened (*tell that to MSP, which got a widespread 10-16" event, nonetheless). It will be interesting to see if that was the GFS's blind squirrel nut for the season or if the GFS's better handling of the northern stream actually means something long-term. Until we get an antecedent cold air mass, any significant snow threat is going to be a thread-the-needle, though. Although we might have some more fun around Christmas and in the week or two after once we do establish said air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z euro is a rainstorm track right over the region...good snows out in western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laminar Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z euro is a rainstorm track right over the region...good snows out in western pa Is this the second or third shortwave(storm)? This 12z Euro is very confusing in the way it divides the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 50 Mile east shift like the November storm per euro would be unbelievable with the type storm it has. Coastal flooding with a 972 MB low would be very bad. Not sure what the winds would be like with this storm? Would assume 25-30 mph sustained 45 mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Is this the second or third shortwave(storm)? This 12z Euro is very confusing in the way it divides the energy. 3rd energy...takes a lower delmarva to just inside benchmark track...pretty much 80% of storm is rain...though once storm pulls away places may change over to snow esp pocs which could do well and into lehigh valley and nw burbs would see some monor accums..city possibly possibly before it end its a sub 980 storm...still way out in.time 7-8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Both waves 1-2 are weak, it's bombs the 3rd wave... A 970's storm off the coast, stacked ,would be a snowstorm to the immediate coast with the euro track and strength* . Bc the 3rd wave is the one to develop, this gets pushed back to next Thursday. Gotta love an active pacific wreaking havoc on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 time to head to the new england mountains for my six feet of snow next week can't say it won't be an active storm track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Both waves 1-2 are weak, it's bombs the 3rd wave... A 970's storm off the coast, stacked ,would be a snowstorm to the immediate coast with the euro track and strength* . Bc the 3rd wave is the one to develop, this gets pushed back to next Thursday. Gotta love an active pacific wreaking havoc on the models. no way a snowstorm to the coast...the airmass ahead of it is blah...the mid levels are to warm...once the winds switch to the north yea maybe then we switch...its still a week out but if that track played out with that airmass the majority of the precip would be rain from abe south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Both waves 1-2 are weak, it's bombs the 3rd wave... A 970's storm off the coast, stacked ,would be a snowstorm to the immediate coast with the euro track and strength* . Bc the 3rd wave is the one to develop, this gets pushed back to next Thursday. Gotta love an active pacific wreaking havoc on the models. You need a good Quebec High (or some sort of proxy) before you can get snow-crushed. The Euro shows exactly what I'm talking about...even with a pretty darn good track (within 50 miles of perfect, I'd say) we're still almost all rain because the antecedent cold air just isn't there yet. Could intense dynamics pull something off? Sure, anything's possible. But this is not, right now anyway, a spread-the-wealth snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If we don't get a pseudo 50/50 it will torch us, man that is a bomb on the EURO though. tombo @ 192 hrs is it still precipitating in our area because it looks cold enough at that point. I'm going off free maps of course. 240hr EURO doesn't look good though...It's cold but it looks transient and would torch a few days later prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You need a good Quebec High (or some sort of proxy) before you can get snow-crushed. The Euro shows exactly what I'm talking about...even with a pretty darn good track (within 50 miles of perfect, I'd say) we're still almost all rain because the antecedent cold air just isn't there yet. Could intense dynamics pull something off? Sure, anything's possible. But this is not, right now anyway, a spread-the-wealth snow event. Your point is valid.. However, we could sit here and debate this all afternoon. But fact is, euro just went to a 3rd solution, an outlier of its own. See we don't really know how this is going to evolve. The signal is there. It's just gonna take till at least this weekend to figure of the Synoptics of everything. Then, we can debate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'd rather miss out on this one and set up the GFS pattern later on where we actually get the cold air before the potential storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'll take my chances on any storm track east of my location in December. Cold air in place or not. Not saying its going to snow but there are worse tracks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'll take my chances on any storm track east of my location in December. Cold air in place or not. Not saying its going to snow but there are worse tracks possible. Look at coastal NJ back early November/late October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Look at coastal NJ back early November/late October... Yup. It's a long ways off, I don't think many of us would complain if we saw a storm that produced rain followed by a thump of wet snow on the backside before it moved away. Can't be too greedy these days, especially after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yup. It's a long ways off, I don't think many of us would complain if we saw a storm that produced rain followed by a thump of wet snow on the backside before it moved away. Can't be too greedy these days, especially after last *****extended autumn*******. Fixed. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Look at coastal NJ back early November/late October... Models far out with that one had a stronger storm like this but were warm as well. The as we got closer they trended colder A lot is on the table here to consider. Right now I am interested to see if the euro decides to go in lock and repeat mode while GFS does some flipping about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With the MJO in the sh3tter and NAO,PNA and AO not looking good, the teleconnections do not bode well for this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With the MJO in the sh3tter and NAO,PNA and AO not looking good, the teleconnections do not bode well for this storm.. is this a joke..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With the MJO in the sh3tter and NAO,PNA and AO not looking good, the teleconnections do not bode well for this storm.. MJO is not that bad and we are nearing an Archambeault event between the 17th and 22nd to tank the NAO. Edited: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Your point is valid.. However, we could sit here and debate this all afternoon. But fact is, euro just went to a 3rd solution, an outlier of its own. See we don't really know how this is going to evolve. The signal is there. It's just gonna take till at least this weekend to figure of the Synoptics of everything. Then, we can debate... I can totally agree to this! With so many different pieces of energy in play, let's settle on a particular storm solution first, and then debate rain vs. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 is this a joke..? sounds like an intoxicated reply. hoping white can hang on for scanton area need a ski day late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 is this a joke..? Well the GEFS is showing a stubborn East Pacific trough (as if that's new this season) but in general yeah, I'm not sure what he's saying. If anything, you might even have a bit of an Archambault signal around D5 (per the GFS spaghetti plots for the NAO, anyway) and again towards the last third of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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