20 replies to this topic

[Hoosier]

I was curious to see how often a High Risk is issued in the Lakes and/or Ohio Valley so I began working on a project a while back. With the help of convectiveoutlook.com, I was able to go all the way back into the late 1980's. I believe I have all of the high risks that have been issued since the late 1990's, but I'm fairly confident that I am missing at least a few from before then. Because of potential missing dates, the data below should be interpreted as the minimum number of high risk days that have occurred for a particular area. In my opinion, these numbers may be too low in some areas by about 1-3 but probably not more than that.

As we all know, SPC issues several day 1 convective outlooks each day. It is possible to be in several high risk outlooks on the same day. For purposes of this post, a day with 1 high risk outlook is no different than a day with 4. In some cases, the high risk boundary barely crossed a state line. Nonetheless, it was counted as a high risk day for the state.

Anyway, here is the list of high risks by state:


Illinois:

11/15/89
6/2/90
6/16/92
6/17/92
11/27/94
5/13/95
4/19/96
7/1/97
4/15/98
6/14/98
4/8/99
4/11/01
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/10/03
5/24/04
5/30/04
11/15/05
3/12/06
6/7/07
2/5/08
4/24/10
10/26/10
5/25/11


Indiana:

11/15/89
6/2/90
6/17/92
11/27/94
4/19/96
4/15/98
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/10/03
5/30/04
11/15/05
10/26/10
5/25/11


Ohio:

6/2/90
6/17/92
4/19/96
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/10/03
5/30/04
11/15/05
10/26/10


Wisconsin:

6/2/90
6/17/92
8/27/94
7/1/97
4/11/01
6/11/01
4/16/02
7/31/02
5/30/04
6/7/07


Michigan:

6/2/90
6/17/92
8/27/94
10/24/01
7/31/02
5/10/03
5/30/04
6/7/07
10/26/10


Kentucky:

11/15/89
6/2/90
11/27/94
4/19/96
4/15/98
6/14/98
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/4/03
5/5/03
5/10/03
5/30/04
11/15/05
4/7/06
2/5/08
4/24/10
5/1/10
10/26/10
5/25/11


At least two days featured a high risk in parts of all 6 states: June 2, 1990 and May 30, 2004


6/2/90 (thanks to baroclinicity for this image)


 Day115Z.png   88.32K   2 downloads




5/30/04 (clipped the extreme southwest corner of Michigan)



 day1otlk_20040530_2000_prt.gif   9.61K   3 downloads


To narrow things down a bit, I divided the region into equal size boxes. One box is larger than the rest but covers less US area. Boxes go from left to right starting at the top, i.e. the northwestern most box is box 1 and the southeastern most box is box 11. The numbers indicate the number of days that a high risk outlook touched any part of that box.


 highriskmap2.png   9.31K   4 downloads


As you can see, the southwestern most box (box 8) has experienced the greatest number of high risk days, with areas farther northeast experiencing steady declines. While the boxes provide another perspective, they can be misleading. Any particular location in each box likely hasn't experienced anywhere near the number of high risk days. With that in mind, here is a list of high risk days for selected cities:


Chicago: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/10/03, 5/30/04

Milwaukee: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94

Indianapolis: 6/2/90, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11

Detroit: 6/2/90, 10/24/01, 10/26/10

Columbus: 10/24/01, 11/10/02, 5/10/03, 10/26/10

Louisville: 11/15/89, 6/2/90, 11/27/94, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 11/10/02, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11

St. Louis: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 4/19/96, 4/15/98, 6/14/98, 4/8/99, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06, 5/25/11

Grand Rapids: 6/2/90, 6/17/92

Toledo: 6/2/90, 10/24/01, 10/26/10

Fort Wayne: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10

Madison: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 7/1/97, 4/11/01, 6/11/01, 5/30/04, 6/7/07

Cedar Rapids: 6/2/90, 6/16/92, 6/17/92, 7/1/97, 4/8/99, 4/11/01, 3/12/06, 6/7/07

Evansville: 6/2/90, 11/27/94, 4/19/96, 4/15/98, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11

Springfield, IL: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 4/19/96, 4/8/99, 4/11/01, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06

Green Bay: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 6/7/07

La Crosse: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 7/1/97, 6/11/01, 6/7/07

Moline: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 7/1/97, 4/11/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06, 6/7/07


and this thread wouldn't be complete without some homerism...


Lafayette: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10

[Andy]

nice work!

[hm8]

Very nice.

Patrick Marsh did something herefor the whole US (and with moderate risks)

[Hoosier]

Andy, on 21 February 2012 - 10:03 PM, said:

nice work!

I just realized I forgot to post the high risk dates for each box.  Maybe later tonight or tomorrow.

[Hoosier]

hm8, on 21 February 2012 - 10:06 PM, said:

Very nice.

Patrick Marsh did something herefor the whole US (and with moderate risks)

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/wp-content/gallery/2011images/highriskclimo.png

Yep, I'm aware of that. He lists some dates that aren't in Beau's high risk archive (presumably some of which would cover part of the area) which is why I think I'm missing some.

[andyhb]

Gonna go out on a limb and say we see at least one in this region this year.

[hm8]

Hoosier, on 21 February 2012 - 10:10 PM, said:

Yep, I'm aware of that. He lists some dates that aren't in Beau's high risk archive (presumably some of which would cover part of the area) which is why I think I'm missing some.

Btw I didn't mean that to come across like "its already been done" kinda way in case thats how it sounded ahaha. Yours is more detailed

[Hoosier]

hm8, on 21 February 2012 - 10:19 PM, said:

Btw I didn't mean that to come across like "its already been done" kinda way in case thats how it sounded ahaha. Yours is more detailed

No problem. I didn't take it that way.

[Stebo48858]

andyhb, on 21 February 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

Gonna go out on a limb and say we see at least one in this region this year.

I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV.

[cyclone77]

Outstanding Hoosier. Very interesting.

[Hoosier]

Stebo48858, on 21 February 2012 - 10:59 PM, said:

I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV.

Based on past history, it's very likely that there will be at least 1. Only 4 years didn't have a high risk somewhere in the area - 1991, 1993, 2000, 2009. One of the days I wonder about is 3/27/91 but I can't find any info on what risk level there was.

[Stebo48858]

Hoosier, on 21 February 2012 - 11:37 PM, said:

Based on past history, it's very likely that there will be at least 1. Only 4 years didn't have a high risk somewhere in the area - 1991, 1993, 2000, 2009. One of the days I wonder about is 3/27/91 but I can't find any info on what risk level there was.

That is one I am unsure of, but I remember that being one hell of an outbreak. Just looking back at the NCDC stuff, Kalamazoo County had 4.50" hail among all the tornadoes that occurred in MI that day/evening.

[Hoosier]

Stebo48858, on 21 February 2012 - 11:54 PM, said:

That is one I am unsure of, but I remember that being one hell of an outbreak. Just looking back at the NCDC stuff, Kalamazoo County had 4.50" hail among all the tornadoes that occurred in MI that day/evening.

Yeah it was a pretty decent outbreak. O'Hare had an 84 mph wind gust, the highest on record there, although that isn't the official Chicago wind record because the official site has moved around over the years.

[B-Rent]

I never realized there is almost an even split between spring/summer, and fall High Risks.


Sent from my iPad HD

[KokomoWX]

I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana.

[TheWeatherPimp]

KokomoWX, on 22 February 2012 - 09:38 AM, said:

I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana.

I did a research paper about Indiana's fall severe weather season when I was at Ball State. It was definitely very interesting to see how many major outbreaks we had in October and November.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

KokomoWX, on 22 February 2012 - 09:38 AM, said:

I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana.

The one in October of 2010 was a month after I moved to Louisville.... that was an insane storm system. A tornado dropped down less than a mile northwest of my workplace at the locks on the Ohio River. There was quite a bit of damage around the area.


That said, thanks for this thread... very interesting! I find it intriguing that Louisville...and the state of Indiana as a whole... went 4 years without seeing a high risk between 2005 and 2010.

[Hoosier]

Here are the high risk days corresponding to each region on the map in the first post. Again, these are the days where a high risk outlook touched any part of the box.


Region 1 (northern MN/northern WI/western UP): 5

6/17/92
8/27/94
4/16/02
7/31/02
6/7/07


Region 2 (central/eastern UP): 3

6/17/92
8/27/94
6/7/07


Region 3 (southeast MN/northeast IA/WI): 11

6/2/90
6/16/92
6/17/92
8/27/94
7/1/97
4/11/01
6/11/01
4/16/02
5/30/04
6/7/07
6/5/08


Region 4 (far eastern WI/MI): 6

6/2/90
6/17/92
8/27/94
10/24/01
5/30/04
6/7/07


Region 5 (much of eastern MI): 4

6/2/90
6/17/92
10/24/01
10/26/10


Region 6 (parts of IA/IL/MO): 20

6/2/90
6/16/92
6/17/92
5/13/95
4/19/96
7/1/97
4/15/98
6/14/98
4/8/99
4/11/01
10/24/01
5/4/03
5/10/03
5/22/04
5/24/04
5/30/04
11/15/05
3/12/06
6/7/07
5/25/11


Region 7 (parts of eastern IL/IN/southern MI/extreme western OH): 13

6/2/90
6/17/92
5/13/95
4/19/96
4/15/98
4/8/99
4/11/01
10/24/01
5/10/03
5/30/04
11/15/05
10/26/10
5/25/11


Region 8 (most of OH/parts of southeast MI): 8

6/2/90
6/17/92
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/10/03
5/30/04
11/15/05
10/26/10


Region 9 (parts of MO/southwestern IL/western KY and TN/small part of AR): 28

11/15/89
6/2/90
6/16/92
6/17/92
11/27/94
5/13/95
4/19/96
4/15/98
4/16/98
6/14/98
4/8/99
5/4/99
4/11/01
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/4/03
5/5/03
5/10/03
5/24/04
5/30/04
11/15/05
3/12/06
4/7/06
2/5/08
4/24/10
4/30/10
5/1/10
5/25/11


Region 10 (southeastern IL/southern IN/central KY and TN): 21

11/15/89
6/2/90
11/27/94
4/19/96
4/15/98
4/16/98
6/14/98
4/8/99
4/11/01
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/5/03
5/10/03
5/30/04
11/15/05
4/7/06
2/5/08
4/24/10
5/1/10
10/26/10
5/25/11


Region 11 (extreme southern OH/eastern KY and TN and adjacent eastern area): 10

11/15/89
4/19/96
6/14/98
10/24/01
11/10/02
5/5/03
5/10/03
5/30/04
11/15/05
10/26/10

[SpartyOn]

hm8, on 21 February 2012 - 10:06 PM, said:

Very nice.

Patrick Marsh did something herefor the whole US (and with moderate risks)

Severe alley

[Stebo48858]

Stebo48858, on 21 February 2012 - 10:59 PM, said:

I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV.

One down and we are only at March 3rd...

[andyhb]

Stebo48858, on 3 March 2012 - 01:15 AM, said:

One down and we are only at March 3rd...

Actually at this point at this early in the year with a major tornado outbreak already verified in the area, I'm beginning to think more than two...