999 replies to this topic

[Thundersnow12]

Chicago Storm, on 22 February 2012 - 11:03 PM, said:

new LOT map...

beat me to it!

[BeastFromtheEast]

Killer point and click for back home(Hoffman Estates IL)! Should be headed home early Friday Aft so hope to see the aftermath!

Quote

Thursday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

[snowstormcanuck]

michsnowfreak, on 22 February 2012 - 11:04 PM, said:

Agree. A definite improvement per trends, but verbatum its insane the difference sensible weatherwise between the NAM and GFS. the difference between being buried in cement snow or rain/snow mix. Luckily the GFS is the outlier.

toronto blizzard, on 22 February 2012 - 11:04 PM, said:

You believe the 00z GFS

Based on the analysis coming out of many of the WFOs suggesting the northern camp models are too far north with a variety of key features, I'm inclined to agree that the 0z GFS is still too far north. NAM may be too wet though, even if its storm track is more realistic.

[BowMeHunter]

BeastFromtheEast, on 22 February 2012 - 11:08 PM, said:

Nice point and click for back at home(Hoffman Estates IL)! Should be headed home early Friday Aft so hope to see the aftermath!

Nice.... at noon today that was a sloppy inch forecast.

[Thundersnow12]

0z NAM putting out .60" liquid in 6hr from 7pm-1am at DPA with sfc temps around 30/31.

[snowstormcanuck]

Angrysummons, on 22 February 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:

Like the Euro was any good. Those pos strung out lows it kept pushing out where terrific.

Honestly, 3 days ago it was the only one (well maybe the UKIE too) that was trying to develop this last piece of energy coming out the Rockies into anything. All the other models were focusing on the wave currently over NYS. Just one odd run last night and it quickly corrected itself at 12z.

Not to count my chickens before they've hatched, but if we're going to give out an award here, it surely has to go to the EURO.

[BeastFromtheEast]

BowMeHunter, on 22 February 2012 - 11:11 PM, said:

Nice.... at noon today that was a sloppy inch forecast.

Yep.. The Crazy world of wx. Really sucks the northern edge is looking drier though.. Still think we can sneak a few inches in though up here in MKE.

[BeastFromtheEast]

Thundersnow12, on 22 February 2012 - 11:11 PM, said:

0z NAM putting out .60" liquid in 6hr from 7pm-1am at DPA with sfc temps around 30/31.

Almost perfect timing

[Geos]

BeastFromtheEast, on 22 February 2012 - 11:13 PM, said:

Yep.. The Crazy world of wx. Really sucks the northern edge is looking drier though.. Still think we can sneak a few inches in though.

Local forecast here is for 4-8". Heavy Snow in the evening. Thunder possible!

5-9" for southern 2/3rd's of Lake County. 4-8" for most of McHenry County.

[hm8]

24 RUC

[Geos]

That's crazy, 40-45 dbz snowfall! Looks like 45+ near Detroit!

[BowMeHunter]

BeastFromtheEast, on 22 February 2012 - 11:13 PM, said:

Yep.. The Crazy world of wx. Really sucks the northern edge is looking drier though.. Still think we can sneak a few inches in though.

never really was much of a storm threat here anyways when the thread was started. If any of us up here fell for the recent GFS runs we only have ourself to blame for any disappointment.. Hopefully the euro still brings a few inches up here while getting more moisture for those in the storm zone.

[Hoosier]

Liking a 75-100 mile wide band of 3-6" snows roughly I-80 northward. However I think there will at least be some embedded 7-10" amounts if not a continuous narrow band.

[hm8]

I'll be in Ann Arbor Thursday night into Friday and then going back north to my home in Oakland County....hopefully I'll see TSSN tomorrow night since AA always the heavy snow bands over it, and then I'll go home to a bigger snowpack up north

[cyclone77]

DSM made some big changes and bumped things south. DSM proper went from nothing to a winter storm warning.

The above long range RUC graphic is sick. Gonna be pure rippage in Michigan tomorrow night.

[Thundersnow12]

cyclone77, on 22 February 2012 - 11:37 PM, said:

DSM made some big changes and bumped things south. DSM proper went from nothing to a winter storm warning.

The above long range RUC graphic is sick. Gonna be pure rippage in Michigan tomorrow night.

And northeast IL!!

[Indystorm]

This somewhat surprising impending snowstorm looks to please a good many of us along I-80. Would certainly cap off the winter season with a major snow after all the nickel and dime stuff Michiana has seen, which I know is more than many of you have experienced.

[cyclone77]

Thundersnow12, on 22 February 2012 - 11:42 PM, said:

And northeast IL!!

Yep, and northeast Illinois. Ontario too eventually.

One of the local stations forecast 6-8" for the QC. Pretty bold move there, but he could be right. Sure wish we didn't have to worry about the rain/snow line, but I guess that keeps it interesting.

[RobertSul]

What I wouldn't give for that to verify verbatim... that 45-50DBZ is IMBY.

hm8, on 22 February 2012 - 11:19 PM, said:

24 RUC

http://ruc.noaa.gov/...f_t7sfc_f24.png

[BeastFromtheEast]

cyclone77, on 22 February 2012 - 11:46 PM, said:

Yep, and northeast Illinois. Ontario too eventually.

One of the local stations forecast 6-8" for the QC. Pretty bold move there, but he could be right. Sure wish we didn't have to worry about the rain/snow line, but I guess that keeps it interesting.

Those who ride the edge are often times the big winners.. High Risk but Very Very High Reward! GL!

[Ajdos]

hm8, on 22 February 2012 - 11:19 PM, said:

24 RUC

GULP.

[Thundersnow12]

4z RUC taking the sfc low down to 987mb just north of STL at 21z tomorrow, and these are also hot

 ruc_namer_018_700_rh_ht.gif   82.46K   1 downloads

 ruc_namer_018_850_temp_ht.gif   68.2K   2 downloads

[cyclone77]

BeastFromtheEast, on 22 February 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

Those who ride the edge are often times the big winners.. High Risk but Very Very High Reward! GL!

Yeah that's 100% true, but man it can be stressful lol.

DVN update stresses the difficulty of the forecast for the QCA..

...
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING
TO BE VERY TRICKY WITH THIS EVENT...WITH A VERY TIGHT 850MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE WET SNOW IS LIKELY
TO MELT EVEN AS MORE FALLS ON TOP AS WELL DUE TO THE WARMER
SURFACE TEMPS AND THE WARM GROUND. TOTAL SNOW FALL MAY GET PRETTY
HIGH...BUT SNOW DEPTHS AT THE END WILL BE MUCH LESS. THUNDERSNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THERE WAS SOME THUNDER BEFORE 00Z
IN SE MONTANA...

[Geos]

cyclone77, on 22 February 2012 - 11:51 PM, said:

Yeah that's 100% true, but man it can be stressful lol.

DVN update stresses the difficulty of the forecast for the QCA..

...
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING
TO BE VERY TRICKY WITH THIS EVENT...WITH A VERY TIGHT 850MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE WET SNOW IS LIKELY
TO MELT EVEN AS MORE FALLS ON TOP AS WELL DUE TO THE WARMER
SURFACE TEMPS AND THE WARM GROUND. TOTAL SNOW FALL MAY GET PRETTY
HIGH...BUT SNOW DEPTHS AT THE END WILL BE MUCH LESS. THUNDERSNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THERE WAS SOME THUNDER BEFORE 00Z
IN SE MONTANA...

Yeah those can be stressful times! Looks like 7" is forecast for your area. Can't wait to see the 6z runs and EURO now!

[cyclone77]

See, even my Davis is confused lol....

The forecast graphic is circled.

[Thundersnow12]

 hrw-nmm_eus_024_700_rh_ht.gif   89.21K   1 downloads

[Thundersnow12]

0z NMM looks like its favorite along and south of I-88.

[Ajdos]

OMG TWC GOIG BIG!
Snow in the evening will taper to showers of rain and wet snow overnight. Low 32F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 90%. Snow accumulating 1 to 2 inches.

[cyclone77]

Thundersnow12, on 23 February 2012 - 12:00 AM, said:

hrw-nmm_eus_024_700_rh_ht.gif

The dynamics with this thing is extremely impressive.

[cyclone77]

World Series champs WRF looking noice...

[Hoosier]

cyclone77, on 23 February 2012 - 12:05 AM, said:

The dynamics with this thing is extremely impressive.

Yep. I don't know if anything can match the Super Bowl thunderfest of a few years ago but these are some of the best thundersnow signals at least since GHD.

[DAFF]

TWC EC and TWN are looking at the same maps...... How does dBZ relate to snow fall?? Is it intensity??

[andyhb]

DAFF, on 23 February 2012 - 12:09 AM, said:

TWC EC and TWN are looking at the same maps...... How does dBZ relate to snow fall?? Is it intensity??

Generally, the more dBZ, the more precipitation, be it snow, hail, rain or even other things like debris within a tornado.

[DAFF]

Perhaps the next Sunday's system will drop south too. Going to be very hard to get any sleep the next day or so. Like a kid the night before Chrismas.

[cyclone77]

Very impressive loop of reflectivity from the 4km WRF-NMM. Very intense banding over Iowa during the day tomorrow.

http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/