StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 can you say scrape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS is really trying hard to throw snow on us! Looks good for Charleston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How's the nam look? I'm not at my computer. 1) Of the last three NAM runs, the 12Z is easily the most favorable (and sort of comparable to yesterday's 18Z NAM) with qpf furthest west. It gives CHS (city itself but nada at the inland airport) ~.05" of qpf and SAV (city itself) ~.02" of qpf (nada at the more inland airport). The prior two runs gave both essentially nothing. 2) The 6Z GFS is easily the most favorable of the last four GFS runs as it is giving measurable snow to CHS and even down to NBC (Beaufort) and SAV, where Bufkit gives 0.1" of snow from 0.04" of qpf and temp.'s down to 31F! At CHS, Bufkit gives a whopping 1.7" of snow from 0.15" qpf with temp.'s dropping all the way down to 28 F! At MYR, it gives 1.3" of snow from 0.06" qpf and gets temp.'s down to 29 F. 3) I haven't looked at today's 12Z GFS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GFS has 700mb RH a little more inland through hr24 with light snow roughly half way between Columbia and the coast. Gotta say it again, from a modeling prespective, this really shows how good the Euro is in that it was the ONLY model showing this possibility of coastal snow a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Showing some love to the coastal carolinas! It looks good to me...but how much snow is the question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GFS @ 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WOW, gfs looks to be coming around! LOVE the trends right now. Stormfury and gawx what do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 SNOW!!! Hey I had a link where did it go? Sorry about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1) Of the last three NAM runs, the 12Z is easily the most favorable (and sort of comparable to yesterday's 18Z NAM) with qpf furthest west. It gives CHS (city itself but nada at the inland airport) ~.05" of qpf and SAV (city itself) ~.02" of qpf (nada at the more inland airport). The prior two runs gave both essentially nothing. 2) The 6Z GFS is easily the most favorable of the last four GFS runs as it is giving measurable snow to CHS and even down to NBC (Beaufort) and SAV, where Bufkit gives 0.1" of snow from 0.04" of qpf and temp.'s down to 31F! At CHS, Bufkit gives a whopping 1.7" of snow from 0.15" qpf with temp.'s dropping all the way down to 28 F! At MYR, it gives 1.3" of snow from 0.06" qpf and gets temp.'s down to 29 F. 3) I haven't looked at today's 12Z GFS yet. To add to the above, the 12Z GFS has even more qpf from SAV to MYR (further west with the precip. shield) and is clearly the wettest of the last five GFS runs. Once it is available, Bufkit and MeteoStar data for this run will be interesting to say the least! So, to summarize, the 12Z GFS run is the best of the last five and the 12Z NAM is the best of the last three. Trend is friendly. Edit: 12Z gfs snowfall maps I've just seen actually give ~2-3" of snow from Edisto to MYR with lesser amounts south of there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 even the 9z SREF is closet it has been to the coast with its qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 for poops and giggles, sorry if its a big map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z gfs definitely colder at the sfc. Details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=99&field=ptype Hopefully this link will work...still new at this! I like to see blue on the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cg...=99&field=ptype Hopefully this link will work...still new at this! I like to see blue on the coast! Shows snow for CHS and coastal SC from tomorrow at approximately 11am to 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jaydog I see you lurking. Is the gun still out of the holster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 RGEM starting to sling some moisture back, although it stays north of ILM for the most part, but given the other guidance, I would expect it to also occur further south than what is shown, from CHS to MHX along the immediate coast. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 StnID: kmyr Model: gfs3 Run: 20110121/1200 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ====================================================================================================================== 110121/1500Z 3 34014KT 44.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110121/1800Z 6 35010KT 45.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110121/2100Z 9 36009KT 43.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0000Z 12 01009KT 37.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/0300Z 15 03010KT 34.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0600Z 18 03011KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0900Z 21 02012KT 30.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/1200Z 24 02013KT 31.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/1500Z 27 01013KT 28.9F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.5 0.028|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 30 36011KT 27.9F SNOW 20:1| 1.4|| 1.9 0.067|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/2100Z 33 36009KT 29.7F SNOW 23:1| 0.9|| 2.8 0.039|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 36 36009KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 2.8 0.000|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- Can someone tell me how much snow this is for Myrtle? TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can someone tell me how much snow this is for Myrtle? TIA! About 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 About 3". Thanks! It's looking really good for us, even better for you I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks! It's looking really good for us, even better for you I think! No problem! And yeah, I'm hoping the western trend continues. Wouldn't take much for us to get >.25" qpf at all. This will surprise a lot of people here on the coast. Not even a mention of any possibility here in CHS. I'm just excited about the possibility of getting snow in the middle of the day, it is so rare for us to not have to worry about temps at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12Z gfs per MeteoStar vs. 6Z gfs qpf at SAV (inland airport..city would get more...close to 0.10"): .03" vs .01". However, first part of this IP or ZR since 850's start at +1 C. Coldest temp. now down to 31 F vs. 32 F on the 6Z gfs. CHS airport: 12z gfs gives a whopping 0.26" of qpf all as snow! Lowest temp now down to 26F with the help of evap. cooling! This translates into ~3" of snow!! MYR: 12Z gfs gives 0.18" of qpf all as snow with lowest down to 29F! This would mean ~2" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12Z gfs per MeteoStar vs. 6Z gfs qpf at SAV (inland airport..city would get more): .03" vs .01". However, first part of this IP or ZR since 850's start at +1 C. Coldest temp. now down to 31 F vs. 32 F on the 6Z gfs. CHS airport: 12z gfs gives a whopping 0.26" of qpf all as snow! Lowest temp now down to 26F with the help of evap. cooling! This translates into ~3" of snow!! MYR: 12Z gfs gives 0.18" of qpf all as snow with lowest down to 29F! This would mean ~2" of snow! Would downtown CHS get more than the airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 high ratios will help too, I think in '89 MYR got like 14" out of around .4 or .5 precip if i remember correctly. Not that this is '89, but the scenerio and sneakiness seem familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12Z gfs per MeteoStar vs. 6Z gfs qpf at SAV (inland airport..city would get more): .03" vs .01". However, first part of this IP or ZR since 850's start at +1 C. Coldest temp. now down to 31 F vs. 32 F on the 6Z gfs. CHS airport: 12z gfs gives a whopping 0.26" of qpf all as snow! Lowest temp now down to 26F with the help of evap. cooling! This translates into ~3" of snow!! MYR: 12Z gfs gives 0.18" of qpf all as snow with lowest down to 29F! This would mean ~2" of snow! Awesome...thanks so much for the info GaWx! Being this close to the event, should we worry about changes in the other direction or should we be confident that we are going to see snow on the coast? Should we even care what EURO says today? Sorry for all the questions...learning here! TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, this could be a huge surprise! Lady Gaga Day is tomorrow, and so is College of Charleston and Citadel basketball games. 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, this could be a huge surprise! Lady Gaga Day is tomorrow, and so is College of Charleston and Citadel basketball games. 2"? Yep I agree. No local mets are talking about the possibility. The CofC game is at 4, and the GFS says the event should start around noon and last into the atfernoon. We could have a HUGE mess on our hands if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Josh Marthers mentioned it very, very briefly at the end of his forecast this morning, like a BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Would downtown CHS get more than the airport? I'd say "yes" due to the airport being down to 26F, leaving plenty of room. So, I could see the airport down to 26F while it is, say 30F near the coast. Since even higher qpf would be likely nearer to the coast (say ~0.30-0.35"), I'd think this could give an additional 1" or so downtown. So, perhaps 3" airport and 4" downtown? IF this occurs after last year's snow, all I could say would be "wow" considering climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z Euro not looking so good for SN lovers along the Carolina coast... SAV ---> 0 QPF, 700mb RH never goes above 41%, and surface temps are 5C CHS ---> 0.04" QPF, 700mb RH tops out at 79%, and surface temps are 3C with 850's -2 to -4 MYR ---> 0.04" QPF, 700mb RH tops out a 85%, and surface temps are 4C with 850's -3 to -4 ILM ---> 0.08" QPF, 700mb RH tops out a 95%, and surface temps are 3.5C with 850's -4 PGV ---> 0.01", 700mb RH 55%, surface temp, -1.5C, 850's -7C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not only that, but The Citadel plays at 7 tomorrow, and the Stingrays probably have their biggest-attended game of the season, "Pink in the Rink" at that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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