Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Folks, I spoke too soon in saying "no dice". The coast from Beaufort, SC, (0.04") to the city of Charleston, itself, (0.09') actually gets qpf on this run vs. ~nothing on the 0Z Euro. MYR also gets 0.09" vs. ~0.01" on the 0Z Euro. All qpf is for when 850's are 0C or colder. Trends, my friends, trends. looks warm at hr 60 66 hr is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Keep talking...me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 so to get the current score on things Nam says a coastal scrap/just offshore JMA says congrats coastal NC LOL Euro says well maybe things will change just in time for coastal magic? GFS says "yeah right" Pretty much sums it up correctly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks warm at hr 60 66 hr is better Yes, taken literally, the 12Z Euro is quite a bit too warm at 2M. However, IF this setup really were to materialize (with those below 0C 850's) and IF we can somehow get some steady precip., those 2 meter temp.'s will likely be a good bit colder with a near isothermal layer from 850 mb to the sfc imo with maritime influences not there due to northerly winds. As I mentioned, the 12Z NAM now has SAV down to 32F (and td of 25) with light snow at10 AM Sat. The Euro's 2 meter temp.'s have a warm bias in these situations in the SE US. For example, SAV and CHS (cities, not the inland airport stations) both got down to as low as 32F on 1/10/11 when precip. was falling. However, the Euro runs had them both only down to near 40F as they had that 40F isotherm staying inland fron the immediate coast due to an overestimation of the marine layer's influence. Granted, those cold sfc temp.'s were helped by wedging from a high to the north, which brought the sfc down to colder than the 850 temp.'s. However, this time the 850's will be colder...so a better shot at snow if a nice precip. area can actually get established without raising 850's to above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the euro was a decent run. Went from nada to .09" for CHS and MB. Hopefully this is just the beginning of the euro catching back on to what it was showing a few days ago and we will continue to trend better as we close in on the event. If we were sitting here 60hrs out with the NAM giving us .5" we'd be nervous as heck, but in this setup things can only get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 does anyone have the map for in between hours? Would like to see where the low is in relationship to the coast at hour 60,66... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good luck, y'all! And never say never...I've seen it snow in Myrtle Beach in May! That was in 84 or 85. A weird little (and I do mean little) storm that dumped a couple of inches in mid-Myrtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Latest AFD KILM 12:30PM... Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1228 PM EST Thursday Jan 20 2011 Synopsis... a warm front will lift north across the area this afternoon. A strong cold front will move quickly off the coast by Friday morning...bringing a chance for rain. Arctic high pressure will build in Friday and persist through Sunday. A coastal low may impact the region on Monday and Tuesday. Cool and dry high pressure returns on Wednesday. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 10 am Monday...pressure pattern finally taking some shape as the morning GOES on...with weak high pressure ridging into the Carolinas from the north. Ill-defined front to our south will lift north as a warm front later today...allowing for maximum temperatures very close to normal this afternoon. Current forecast highs in the middle/upper 50s look well on track. Cold front will take shape to our west and quickly be pushed east across the area overnight as a northern stream impulse scoots from the upper Midwest well into the Great Lakes...and phases with a southern stream vorticity currently over the Texas Panhandle. Speed of this system will keep this system starved for moisture...so the window for precipitation is very narrow on either side of frontal passage. Current 30-40 probability of precipitation for tonight looking a bit generous...but will maintain for now and reassess when the full suite of 12z model data is in. && Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... as of 3 am Thursday...cold front will be exiting the area Friday morning with cold and dry high pressure building in behind it for the weekend. Winds will veer around through the morning hours as front moves farther off shore. Any lingering moisture along the coast will be scoured out by early afternoon as deep northwest flow sets up. Pcp water values up closer to an inch early morning will drop to less than a quarter of an inch after noon on Friday. Expect skies to clear Friday afternoon with gusty northwest winds. 850 temperatures up near 5c Friday morning will drop to less than 0c by afternoon. Expect temperatures to remain in the 40s most places. Dew point temperatures will be down in the teens by afternoon and should remain below 20 through most of Sat. Winds should hold up enough to keep temperatures from dropping into the teens Friday night but expect readings down in the lower end of the 20s over most of the area. Developing coastal low off the southeast coast on Sat may brush close enough to the Carolina coast to produce some clouds but current forecast holds any pcp off shore. Shortwave digs down across the East Coast and should hold the system off shore. By Sat evening the shortwave swings off shore and expect cold and dry weather to continue into Sunday. Temperatures on Sat will have trouble making it into the 40s and will drop down once again into the 20s. && Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... as of 3 am Thursday...cold and dry weather will start out the period on Sunday as Arctic high pressure dominates. High pressure gets squeezed out on Monday as low pressure system tracks up from the Gulf Coast moving northeast up through the off shore waters of the East Coast. Coastal trough develops ahead of the low along the Carolina coast as cold air remains wedged in through inland Carolinas. Expect best lift and chance of pcp late Monday into early Tuesday. Track and strength of this system will affect the forecast for the first couple of days of the work week. Right now the European model (ecmwf) and Gem track the low closer to the coast while the GFS holds it off shore more. Should see some drying on Wednesday as system departs local area. Have not introduced any mixed pcp in the forecast although it may come into play for a very short time. Temperatures should continue below normal through the week. && Pray for a'lil more WEST Trend My friends..... 50/75 miles? I'm about 10-14 miles from the Coast/beach... Though as the bird flies, most likley 5 miles... Seems like WE also have a good chance with the NEXT system, hopefully and this is just a "pre-lude" to a real good Coastal crusher Early next week?..... Heres a intesting forcast Map from wunderground.. Dated Sat, jan 22@ 1PM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18Z NAM....yay for Charleston...boo for me! I'm still liking how close this potential is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18Z NAM....yay for Charleston...boo for me! I'm still liking how close this potential is. The .1" creeps closer to the coast with each run. Although if this is going to be an accumulating snow we better start seeing some serious trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The .1" creeps closer to the coast with each run. Although if this is going to be an accumulating snow we better start seeing some serious trends tonight. Actually, the trend on the 18Z nam is further from the coast vs. the 12Z nam. Remember, folks, I'm just a messenger and am not too fond of guns being pointed at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually, the trend on the 18Z nam is further from the coast vs. the 12Z nam. Remember, folks, I'm just a messenger and am not too fond of guns being pointed at me. yea, was going to post that it looks east on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, lets see how the GFS looks. 00z nam will be an important run too. If it trends further offshore the chances for snow will look extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yikes. 00z might have just put the nail in the coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The shortwave in question is still not in the good data network yet. It should be in the 12z guidance. These are the types of setups that can bring last minute surprises to the coastal plain of the Carolinas. I've seen it before and sure I haven't seen the last of those either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS giving a little love to the coast now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How's the gfs look? I'm on my phone and can't take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So. Close. I hope that we get better trends tomorrow in the 12z runs once we get better data ingested like stormfury alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0z GFSgives a little taste to KCHS - look a little down the road and wants to give an hour of ice a little later in the frame. 110122/0300Z 27 02006KT 36.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0600Z 30 03008KT 35.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0900Z 33 02010KT 32.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/1200Z 36 01010KT 30.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/1500Z 39 36009KT 29.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.4 0.035|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 42 36008KT 34.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.008|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/2100Z 45 35008KT 39.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.000|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 48 35006KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.4 0.000|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110123/0300Z 51 36004KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0600Z 54 02004KT 29.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0900Z 57 32003KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/1200Z 60 31003KT 30.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110123/1500Z 63 30003KT 41.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/1800Z 66 24003KT 48.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/2100Z 69 24003KT 48.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110124/0000Z 72 27003KT 34.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110124/0300Z 75 VRB02KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110124/0600Z 78 VRB02KT 31.8F ICE 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110124/0900Z 81 36004KT 36.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110124/1200Z 84 01005KT 36.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0z GFSgives a little taste to KCHS - look a little down the road and wants to give an hour of ice a little later in the frame. Nice to see it give us something. A big change from earlier runs that left us high and dry. Lets hope tomorrows trends are good seeing as better data on the s/w will be ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 coastal counties need to keep an eye open... GFS' low track is pretty darn close... and every single one of its ensemble members throws precip all the way to near I-95.... I think we might have a 36 hour last minute trend on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Getting interesting........ Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kcre.dat I don't care how little snow this shows, just to see the word "snow" on the GFS output makes me smile! Talk about last minute trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The shortwave in question is still not in the good data network yet. It should be in the 12z guidance. These are the types of setups that can bring last minute surprises to the coastal plain of the Carolinas. I've seen it before and sure I haven't seen the last of those either. SF, how right can you be..Living on the Coast here most of My life, see, I've been a commerical fisherman et al, and I don't give a dern what the **MODELS** call for on the coast. I've seen to many "BUSTS", where NWS/or even our Local TV Mets bust's all the time. For example, precip. forcast's, wind direction etc.. Hopefully, It just may become, like in 89, a Nowcast type thing... If you remember back then, We were NOT even to get sn,or NO Precip, but ended up with 20+ inches....(here in ILM)... So, were with-in 24/36 hours of the event, ALOT of things could change.... I'm not buying into the Models saying No sn/rain for you as a Low creeps up the coast.. Though if it happens, Lordy, they got it right "for once"... from our KLIM AFD >snip< Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... as of 3 am Friday...a low pressure system off the Florida coast Sat morning will move northeast with moisture on the back end brushing the Carolina coast Sat afternoon. A shortwave digging down the East Coast should help to push it farther off the coast away from area by the end of the day but may bring enough moisture Sat afternoon along the coast to produce some pcp. At this point it looks like shortwave will help to trigger some middle to high clouds over the area but pcp should hold off shore. May see a few flurries but moisture profiles and sounding data still showing plenty of dry air at the low levels. For now will keep all pcp off shore as models are still indicating this.>snip< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z runs will be key, if the GFS continues the west trend we will be in business. Even another small west trend will put the coast in the .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow Dancing, Snow Dancing!!! Yep, if 12Z models show snow I'm all in, if not, gonna give up and maybe get some things done around the house today. LOL! Good Luck to all my coastal buddies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the thing that people are missing when they dont see the precip on the coast, is that the heavy precip is JUST off the coast... it doesnt take a monumental shift, just a bump and coastal counties in NC and SC are gonna get it.... personally, I think the OBX look golden right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How's the nam look? I'm not at my computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Close as it gets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.