mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 We'll start positive here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 psuhoffman, on 16 January 2011 - 12:19 PM, said: GGEM is about 1" for the region... is that what were holding out for now 1" of snow on a 120 hour model prog? No thanks. This is the worst possible winter I can imagine. If its not going to snow (and I mean more then these useless 1-3" events) at least it could warm up so I could play some golf and go for a bike ride. This is a nightmare. Cold and dreary with insignificant precip just to make it completely miserable out. I disagree with you, last winter jaded your outlook for our area, i will take numerous 1-3" snowstorms instead of hoping for the 1 foot storm and crying every time a model inevitably does not give it to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Still thinking that Tues morning rush is going to be a mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Reading through the last couple of quotes from people it's simply amazing. Some of you sound straight from the accuweather forum. The reason I switched was because I wanted to learn more about weather and not hear all the weenies go off about how the winter is over and it's never going to snow again etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Still thinking that Tues morning rush is going to be a mess... Treated roads won't be a problem at all even if it's all freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Still thinking that Tues morning rush is going to be a mess... it will probably be a mess even if it doesnt precipitate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 do you gentlemen rememberr 95???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Treated roads won't be a problem at all even if it's all freezing rain. The AFM shows .1-.2" of ice. I am not sure how that will all be taking care of by treating the roads. Besides a lil snow underneath to is possible it will probably be a mess even if it doesnt precipitate Well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 psuhoffman, on 16 January 2011 - 12:19 PM, said: GGEM is about 1" for the region... is that what were holding out for now 1" of snow on a 120 hour model prog? No thanks. This is the worst possible winter I can imagine. If its not going to snow (and I mean more then these useless 1-3" events) at least it could warm up so I could play some golf and go for a bike ride. This is a nightmare. Cold and dreary with insignificant precip just to make it completely miserable out. I disagree with you, last winter jaded your outlook for our area, i will take numerous 1-3" snowstorms instead of hoping for the 1 foot storm and crying every time a model inevitably does not give it to us. Last winter has not affected my outlook for "MY" area. I know my local snowfall climo very well as well as the entire region. I consider 6" or more significant, so first off I do not need a foot of snow. My location averages 39" with a mode of 30". We do not get there 2" at a time. On average Manchester gets 2.5 6" events per winter. We average just over one 10" event per winter. If I lived in DC or Baltimore I would have to change my expectations because climo would not be on my side. But living where I do, it is not unreasonable to expect at least one significant snowfall per winter. Its very rare for this area not to have one in a season. As bad as this pattern has been for DC, compared to climo its even worse for places like Martinsburg, Harrisburg, and Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The AFM shows .1-.2" of ice. I am not sure how that will all be taking care of by treating the roads. Besides a lil snow underneath to is possible the AFM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Reading through the last couple of quotes from people it's simply amazing. Some of you sound straight from the accuweather forum. The reason I switched was because I wanted to learn more about weather and not hear all the weenies go off about how the winter is over and it's never going to snow again etc. Yup. I enjoy our climate, the busts come in bunches, but we do very well for our lattitude, & proximity to the Ocean. 3 HECS in 7yrs is a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Maybe an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Maybe an inch? 24 01/17 12Z 22 17 85 3 0.01 0.00 531 551 -5.6 -23.2 1026.6 81 -SN 031BKN084 CLR 249FEW291 23 22 4.8 30 01/17 18Z 30 21 142 7 0.01 0.00 534 554 -5.1 -21.8 1024.8 82 -SN 027BKN061 CLR 306FEW375 30 22 15.0 36 01/18 00Z 29 26 122 7 0.01 0.00 537 555 -4.0 -20.7 1023.4 97 -SN 024BKN050 157BKN229 242BKN370 31 29 0.5 42 01/18 06Z 29 28 90 5 0.11 0.00 539 555 -0.5 -20.2 1020.0 100 -SN 025BKN078 116BKN230 231BKN366 29 28 0.0 48 01/18 12Z 31 31 20 6 0.07 0.00 542 553 1.3 -19.4 1014.0 100 -FZRN 011BKN092 117BKN170 248BKN353 31 29 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the AFM? Area Forecast Matrices. It helps to delineate times of changeovers/mixes in precip and QPF ranges http://www.weather.gov/data/LWX/AFMLWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The AFM shows .1-.2" of ice. I am not sure how that will all be taking care of by treating the roads. Besides a lil snow underneath to is possible Well even rain makes the commute horrendous around here. .1-.2" of ice will form on trees and untreated surfaces but it has a tough time freezing when it becomes a saline solution on the roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 0.85" of total precip since December 2nd. I'll be happy with anything that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 6-8 hours of freezing rain, even at accretion rates of 0.02" per hour is enough to cause problems around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Last winter has not affected my outlook for "MY" area. I know my local snowfall climo very well as well as the entire region. I consider 6" or more significant, so first off I do not need a foot of snow. My location averages 39" with a mode of 30". We do not get there 2" at a time. On average Manchester gets 2.5 6" events per winter. We average just over one 10" event per winter. If I lived in DC or Baltimore I would have to change my expectations because climo would not be on my side. But living where I do, it is not unreasonable to expect at least one significant snowfall per winter. Its very rare for this area not to have one in a season. As bad as this pattern has been for DC, compared to climo its even worse for places like Martinsburg, Harrisburg, and Hagerstown. I understand your frustration but it is ONLY January 16th, especially in a Nina winter we have at least 2 months left to get a significant snowstorm and i firmly believe you will get your one big snow before winter is over. Hell if the Euro is right it might come this Saturday night if not i am sure it will come in the second half of February or early March. If i am wrong you can remind me of it at the end of winter and i will take it like a man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 6-8 hours of freezing rain, even at accretion rates of 0.02" per hour is enough to cause problems around here It has been a long time since I can remember when ice built up on the roads...decks, trees, hand rails...different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Heavy snows please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It has been a long time since I can remember when ice built up on the roads...decks, trees, hand rails...different story 1999 was the last major ice storm in this area and it was the worst of my life, most people did not have power for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Area Forecast Matrices. It helps to delineate times of changeovers/mixes in precip and QPF ranges http://www.weather.gov/data/LWX/AFMLWX too many numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I understand your frustration but it is ONLY January 16th, especially in a Nina winter we have at least 2 months left to get a significant snowstorm and i firmly believe you will get your one big snow before winter is over. Hell if the Euro is right it might come this Saturday night if not i am sure it will come in the second half of February or early March. If i am wrong you can remind me of it at the end of winter and i will take it like a man. You may be right, I guess my frustration is that usually around here when it is not snowing it tends to be warm. One thing I like about this area is that we do not usually have to suffer through many cold/dry winters like this. Up north they are much more common, especially in the midwest. Here its usually feast or famine but the famine at least comes with warm/nice weather. I can at least get outside and play tennis, hike, bike, or golf. This pattern is just miserable. Its not just the lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It does seem like all models right now do have a nice little storm for at least Richmond at around 120. GFS is about a 3-4" storm for them. I hope that at least happens for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It does seem like all models right now do have a nice little storm for at least Richmond at around 120. GFS is about a 3-4" storm for them. I hope that at least happens for them i dont.. richmond getting more snow than us again would be a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggiemoo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm also happy with numerous 1-3" events only if it stays cold as it has. Here in Bel Air, MD, we have had a few this winter and last week's event gave us around 4-5". Still have good snowcover on the lawn and actually was able to use the snow blower. The cold has been good for snowcover but hell on my BGE bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You may be right, I guess my frustration is that usually around here when it is not snowing it tends to be warm. One thing I like about this area is that we do not usually have to suffer through many cold/dry winters like this. Up north they are much more common, especially in the midwest. Here its usually feast or famine but the famine at least comes with warm/nice weather. I can at least get outside and play tennis, hike, bike, or golf. This pattern is just miserable. Its not just the lack of snow. I feel your pain, but one of the reasons i love living here is the 4 totally different seasons. Of course i would love snow but even if it does not i like it when it is cold. Also seeing alot of lone range experts who think that we are in the midst of a late 50's thru 1970 period make me feel real good about future winters for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like 12z GFS suggests .2" ice at IAD.. just over .1" at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i dont.. richmond getting more snow than us again would be a disaster GFS gives you 1"....congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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