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Mid-Winter Crisis or Start of Something Big?


mitchnick

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psuhoffman, on 16 January 2011 - 12:19 PM, said:

GGEM is about 1" for the region... is that what were holding out for now 1" of snow on a 120 hour model prog? No thanks. This is the worst possible winter I can imagine. If its not going to snow (and I mean more then these useless 1-3" events) at least it could warm up so I could play some golf and go for a bike ride. This is a nightmare. Cold and dreary with insignificant precip just to make it completely miserable out.

I disagree with you, last winter jaded your outlook for our area, i will take numerous 1-3" snowstorms instead of hoping for the 1 foot storm and crying every time a model inevitably does not give it to us.

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Treated roads won't be a problem at all even if it's all freezing rain.

The AFM shows .1-.2" of ice. I am not sure how that will all be taking care of by treating the roads. Besides a lil snow underneath to is possible

it will probably be a mess even if it doesnt precipitate

Well played.

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psuhoffman, on 16 January 2011 - 12:19 PM, said:

GGEM is about 1" for the region... is that what were holding out for now 1" of snow on a 120 hour model prog? No thanks. This is the worst possible winter I can imagine. If its not going to snow (and I mean more then these useless 1-3" events) at least it could warm up so I could play some golf and go for a bike ride. This is a nightmare. Cold and dreary with insignificant precip just to make it completely miserable out.

I disagree with you, last winter jaded your outlook for our area, i will take numerous 1-3" snowstorms instead of hoping for the 1 foot storm and crying every time a model inevitably does not give it to us.

Last winter has not affected my outlook for "MY" area. I know my local snowfall climo very well as well as the entire region. I consider 6" or more significant, so first off I do not need a foot of snow. My location averages 39" with a mode of 30". We do not get there 2" at a time. On average Manchester gets 2.5 6" events per winter. We average just over one 10" event per winter. If I lived in DC or Baltimore I would have to change my expectations because climo would not be on my side. But living where I do, it is not unreasonable to expect at least one significant snowfall per winter. Its very rare for this area not to have one in a season. As bad as this pattern has been for DC, compared to climo its even worse for places like Martinsburg, Harrisburg, and Hagerstown.

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Reading through the last couple of quotes from people it's simply amazing. Some of you sound straight from the accuweather forum. The reason I switched was because I wanted to learn more about weather and not hear all the weenies go off about how the winter is over and it's never going to snow again etc.

Yup.

I enjoy our climate, the busts come in bunches, but we do very well for our lattitude, & proximity to the Ocean. 3 HECS in 7yrs is a blessing.

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Maybe an inch?

24 01/17 12Z 22 17 85 3 0.01 0.00 531 551 -5.6 -23.2 1026.6 81 -SN 031BKN084 CLR 249FEW291 23 22 4.8

30 01/17 18Z 30 21 142 7 0.01 0.00 534 554 -5.1 -21.8 1024.8 82 -SN 027BKN061 CLR 306FEW375 30 22 15.0

36 01/18 00Z 29 26 122 7 0.01 0.00 537 555 -4.0 -20.7 1023.4 97 -SN 024BKN050 157BKN229 242BKN370 31 29 0.5

42 01/18 06Z 29 28 90 5 0.11 0.00 539 555 -0.5 -20.2 1020.0 100 -SN 025BKN078 116BKN230 231BKN366 29 28 0.0

48 01/18 12Z 31 31 20 6 0.07 0.00 542 553 1.3 -19.4 1014.0 100 -FZRN 011BKN092 117BKN170 248BKN353 31 29 0.0

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The AFM shows .1-.2" of ice. I am not sure how that will all be taking care of by treating the roads. Besides a lil snow underneath to is possible

Well even rain makes the commute horrendous around here. .1-.2" of ice will form on trees and untreated surfaces but it has a tough time freezing when it becomes a saline solution on the roadways.

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Last winter has not affected my outlook for "MY" area. I know my local snowfall climo very well as well as the entire region. I consider 6" or more significant, so first off I do not need a foot of snow. My location averages 39" with a mode of 30". We do not get there 2" at a time. On average Manchester gets 2.5 6" events per winter. We average just over one 10" event per winter. If I lived in DC or Baltimore I would have to change my expectations because climo would not be on my side. But living where I do, it is not unreasonable to expect at least one significant snowfall per winter. Its very rare for this area not to have one in a season. As bad as this pattern has been for DC, compared to climo its even worse for places like Martinsburg, Harrisburg, and Hagerstown.

I understand your frustration but it is ONLY January 16th, especially in a Nina winter we have at least 2 months left to get a significant snowstorm and i firmly believe you will get your one big snow before winter is over. Hell if the Euro is right it might come this Saturday night if not i am sure it will come in the second half of February or early March. If i am wrong you can remind me of it at the end of winter and i will take it like a man.

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I understand your frustration but it is ONLY January 16th, especially in a Nina winter we have at least 2 months left to get a significant snowstorm and i firmly believe you will get your one big snow before winter is over. Hell if the Euro is right it might come this Saturday night if not i am sure it will come in the second half of February or early March. If i am wrong you can remind me of it at the end of winter and i will take it like a man.

You may be right, I guess my frustration is that usually around here when it is not snowing it tends to be warm. One thing I like about this area is that we do not usually have to suffer through many cold/dry winters like this. Up north they are much more common, especially in the midwest. Here its usually feast or famine but the famine at least comes with warm/nice weather. I can at least get outside and play tennis, hike, bike, or golf. This pattern is just miserable. Its not just the lack of snow.

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It does seem like all models right now do have a nice little storm for at least Richmond at around 120. GFS is about a 3-4" storm for them. I hope that at least happens for them

i dont.. richmond getting more snow than us again would be a disaster

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I'm also happy with numerous 1-3" events only if it stays cold as it has. Here in Bel Air, MD, we have had a few this winter and last week's event gave us around 4-5". Still have good snowcover on the lawn and actually was able to use the snow blower. The cold has been good for snowcover but hell on my BGE bill.

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You may be right, I guess my frustration is that usually around here when it is not snowing it tends to be warm. One thing I like about this area is that we do not usually have to suffer through many cold/dry winters like this. Up north they are much more common, especially in the midwest. Here its usually feast or famine but the famine at least comes with warm/nice weather. I can at least get outside and play tennis, hike, bike, or golf. This pattern is just miserable. Its not just the lack of snow.

I feel your pain, but one of the reasons i love living here is the 4 totally different seasons. Of course i would love snow but even if it does not i like it when it is cold. Also seeing alot of lone range experts who think that we are in the midst of a late 50's thru 1970 period make me feel real good about future winters for our area.

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