MJO812 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Some snow possible on Friday from the clipper? 12z GFS says maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Wind advisories are now up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Right or wrong, 18Z continues to show a little event end of week. 850 and 540 look good, anyone have a sounding? Its probably just a few rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Nice batch of rain approaching with some embedded storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Right or wrong, 18Z continues to show a little event end of week. 850 and 540 look good, anyone have a sounding? Its probably just a few rain showers. Probably rain, but I've seen setups like that produce small hail or graupel if it comes down heavy enough, because the upper air is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Nice batch of rain approaching with some embedded storms. About to start here....will let you guys know how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Its raining .12" already, heavier echos off to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 What did you expect? Its raining .12" already, heavier echos off to the south Raining here but at least it's not cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Rob Guarino winter outlook http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/3739/PART-IV-SNOW-TOTALS-WINTER-OUTLOOK-(PHILADELPHIA,-DC,-BOSTON,-NYC,-BALTIMORE) 24-30 inches of snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Here comes the convection...we will have to see if the more robust winds can mix down to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Rain echos are definitely expanding and intensifying in coverage as the cold front approaches. Looks like there could be some good elevated T-storms across the area during the late night, and a very rainy night regardless. Winds are really picking up outside now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NORTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 400 AM EST. HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Here comes the first serious snow threat of the year, on Thanksgiving of all days...GFS shows overrunning and then a late blooming coastal: Serious cold after in the long range, with a massive -NAO block: This will be an interesting season if we can maintain a powerful -NAO in a strong La Niña; we should see an active northern stream this winter and some much colder air in Canada due to the enhanced polar vortex, so all hope is not lost if the Atlantic pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Here comes the first serious snow threat of the year, on Thanksgiving of all days...GFS shows overrunning and then a late blooming coastal: Serious cold after in the long range, with a massive -NAO block: This will be an interesting season if we can maintain a powerful -NAO in a strong La Niña; we should see an active northern stream this winter and some much colder air in Canada due to the enhanced polar vortex, so all hope is not lost if the Atlantic pattern holds. It's interesting to see Miller A type storms on the models. I thought it wasn't common for Miller A storms to develop in a strong La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It's interesting to see Miller A type storms on the models. I thought it wasn't common for Miller A storms to develop in a strong La Nina. It isn't very common at all, and the long-range storm at 300hrs doesn't have much of a reflection at 500mb so it may be hocus-pocus. There does appear to be somewhat of a split flow developing with pieces of energy moving in from the northern stream trying to phase with a 516dm PV over Southeast Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 The severe thunderstorm watch was just expanded north/northeast and now extends to Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 DCA gusted to 47kts KDCA 170549Z 23032G47KT 1SM R01/3500VP6000FT +TSRA SQ SCT019 OVC050CB 17/14 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 24047/0548 TSB43RAB48 PRESRR OCNL LTGICCCCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The severe thunderstorm watch was just expanded north/northeast and now extends to Allentown Nasty squall line in C PA. John, what are your thoughts on the Thanksgiving overrunning event and the long-range pattern? Still optimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 0-6km bulk shear is approaching 80 kts directly ahead of the cold frontal passage...the instability is meager (only a couple hundred j/kg MUCAPE)...but obviously has been suffice to support a narrow band of convection which is mixing down the serious winds just off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 John, what are your thoughts on the Thanksgiving overrunning event and the long-range pattern? Still optimistic? I am cautiously optimistic at this point...I would like to see the split flow develop (obviously that would be ideal)..but I have felt for a while that we would cash in as far as snow goes in Early Dec. Don't see any reason to sway from that opinion now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 A testament to the kinematics of this system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 mount holly has the southern half of nj under a warning http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=01100010&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 5 boros are under a warning now too. Looks like straight line damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 wasnt terrible here...very very quick burst of rain and gusted id say just over 40 . . Trenton gusted to 54mph though so there are some intense gusts if your in the right spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 wasnt terrible here...very very quick burst of rain and gusted id say just over 40 . . Trenton gusted to 54mph though so there are some intense gusts if your in the right spot They line has really weakened in the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 My commute this morning was just awful... I must have been following the storms/downpours all the way from Clifton NJ to White Plains.... saw a couple quick lightning flashes, a few very strong gusts, and torrential downpours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 wasnt terrible here...very very quick burst of rain and gusted id say just over 40 . . Trenton gusted to 54mph though so there are some intense gusts if your in the right spot Definitely sounded louder than 40MPH, though I suppose sound is not the best way to measure a wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Definitely sounded louder than 40MPH, though I suppose sound is not the best way to measure a wind gust. I measured 58 MPH in Elizabeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Amazing: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 659 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0429 AM TSTM WND GST MONTGOMERY 41.52N 74.24W 11/17/2010 M64.00 MPH ORANGE NY ASOS 0429 AM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW ELIZABETH 40.66N 74.23W 11/17/2010 M58.00 MPH UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT 429 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Definitely sounded louder than 40MPH, though I suppose sound is not the best way to measure a wind gust. Was woke up at 4am last night to the strongest wind i have seen since the march noreaster.......very impressive They look alot stronger then just 40mph....but very impressive none the less for mid november. leaves ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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