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earthlight

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Guest Noreaster

Right or wrong, 18Z continues to show a little event end of week. 850 and 540 look good, anyone have a sounding? Its probably just a few rain showers.

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Right or wrong, 18Z continues to show a little event end of week. 850 and 540 look good, anyone have a sounding? Its probably just a few rain showers.

Probably rain, but I've seen setups like that produce small hail or graupel if it comes down heavy enough, because the upper air is very cold.

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ww0742_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 742

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1205 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

DELAWARE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND

SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

NORTHEAST VIRGINIA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 400 AM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

PATUXENT RIVER MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

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Here comes the first serious snow threat of the year, on Thanksgiving of all days...GFS shows overrunning and then a late blooming coastal:

Serious cold after in the long range, with a massive -NAO block:

This will be an interesting season if we can maintain a powerful -NAO in a strong La Niña; we should see an active northern stream this winter and some much colder air in Canada due to the enhanced polar vortex, so all hope is not lost if the Atlantic pattern holds.

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Here comes the first serious snow threat of the year, on Thanksgiving of all days...GFS shows overrunning and then a late blooming coastal:

Serious cold after in the long range, with a massive -NAO block:

This will be an interesting season if we can maintain a powerful -NAO in a strong La Niña; we should see an active northern stream this winter and some much colder air in Canada due to the enhanced polar vortex, so all hope is not lost if the Atlantic pattern holds.

It's interesting to see Miller A type storms on the models. I thought it wasn't common for Miller A storms to develop in a strong La Nina.

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It's interesting to see Miller A type storms on the models. I thought it wasn't common for Miller A storms to develop in a strong La Nina.

It isn't very common at all, and the long-range storm at 300hrs doesn't have much of a reflection at 500mb so it may be hocus-pocus. There does appear to be somewhat of a split flow developing with pieces of energy moving in from the northern stream trying to phase with a 516dm PV over Southeast Canada.

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John, what are your thoughts on the Thanksgiving overrunning event and the long-range pattern? Still optimistic?

I am cautiously optimistic at this point...I would like to see the split flow develop (obviously that would be ideal)..but I have felt for a while that we would cash in as far as snow goes in Early Dec. Don't see any reason to sway from that opinion now. :guitar:

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Guest Patrick

My commute this morning was just awful... I must have been following the storms/downpours all the way from Clifton NJ to White Plains.... saw a couple quick lightning flashes, a few very strong gusts, and torrential downpours...

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Amazing:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

659 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0429 AM TSTM WND GST MONTGOMERY 41.52N 74.24W

11/17/2010 M64.00 MPH ORANGE NY ASOS

0429 AM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW ELIZABETH 40.66N 74.23W

11/17/2010 M58.00 MPH UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT 429 AM.

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Definitely sounded louder than 40MPH, though I suppose sound is not the best way to measure a wind gust.

Was woke up at 4am last night to the strongest wind i have seen since the march noreaster.......very impressive

They look alot stronger then just 40mph....but very impressive none the less for mid november.

leaves ftl

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