Wx4cast Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just looked at 12 ECEN it looks to be quite a bit west of the OP run (which is also west) with the developing Miller A low. GFS and UK are similar to each other and EC thru 72 hours then depart seaward with low. However if I use my UK "Tuck" rule on lows moving EN-NE across the SEUS then I could easily and confidently adjust its low track beyond 72 hours NW of its forecast path towards what EC is showing. Also using pattern-type analogs from forecast data from both UK and GFS adjustments NW to low track appear likely with these models. Quick scan by me of GEFS 12z shows its farther east of EC and ECEN but looks west of its OP run.... It is a La Nina year...adjustments W and N often occur. Lastly TG likes this storm....she's on a roll this winter so far.... And for me this far out (like yesterday's/today's event) I find it all of the following: enticing, intriguing, and interesting. It has my interest peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i like the idea of splitting out synoptic storms threats into their own thread.....i think we should have kept using your storms thread for the last event instead of migrating back into the Discussion thread. not sure what others think though. thanks for your thoughts as usual. i think the lower HV looks like a great spot for this one. i think all of NY state along the thruway sees some snow. TG in a better spot than us up here, but i think the brunt stays S and E of her too. i just wish heights on the East coast would rise quicker so that it be a true hugger, rather than moving ENE from the Cape. i think that southern lead wave along the gulf coast really screws that up by dampening heights initially. still time to adjust i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 i like the idea of splitting out synoptic storms threats into their own thread.....i think we should have kept using your storms thread for the last event instead of migrating back into the Discussion thread. not sure what others think though. thanks for your thoughts as usual. i think the lower HV looks like a great spot for this one. i think all of NY state along the thruway sees some snow. TG in a better spot than us up here, but i think the brunt stays S and E of her too. i just wish heights on the East coast would rise quicker so that it be a true hugger, rather than moving ENE from the Cape. i think that southern lead wave along the gulf coast really screws that up by dampening heights initially. still time to adjust i suppose. Something to ponder, hard to gauge: more extensive snow pack across NEUS and parts of (SE) Canada. LL are colder now, air more dense, more HP. NAM time perhaps as event draws near. BTW- I agree with you threats should have their own thread. Nothing worse then getting a mixed jumble of posts about LES, whiners, tools posting "Alice in Wonderland" GFS day 10+ weenie storms and an ongoing event all in one thread. BTW- You're welcome ( for posting my thoughts). Wish I had more time to post here more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z NAM looks great and 18Z GFS came west about 300 miles. I think that tonight's model runs will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Big westward adjustment from the 12z: Agree much with what Andy said. The h500 doesn't "appear" to be a great setup....but it has MUCH potential to radically amplify more with the relatively flat height field to it's north as it traverses across the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BTW, the speed of the 18z GFS looks to be ridiculously fast for a 3 countour closed h500 low, stacked with the lower levels.....watch for a slowing trend in future outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 thew 18z RGEM is a bit more amped up at 48h than even the NAM. a bit less confluence, a less opressive vortex... i think thats a great sign for those of you along the thruway and in ENY.....shows that the NAM is not out to lunch at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Big westward adjustment from the 12z: Agree much with what Andy said. The h500 doesn't "appear" to be a great setup....but it has MUCH potential to radically amplify more with the relatively flat height field to it's north as it traverses across the OV. I'm always leery of the models forecasting H5 features lagging way west (> 10 degrees longitude) of where they're forecast ing surface cyclogenesis to be. We are starting to get into the <5 day period (of onset) now. GFS will start to "grasp" things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like the title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm always leery of the models forecasting H5 features lagging way west (> 10 degrees longitude) of where they're forecast ing surface cyclogenesis to be. We are starting to get into the <5 day period (of onset) now. GFS will start to "grasp" things. One question (if verification is indeed a coastal hugger) is why has the NOGAPS "grasped" this better than the GFS??? What part of this pattern does the GFS have such a problem, where the inferior NOGAPS is not? Or maybe it's not that simple. This would be a tremendous win for ensemble modeling ...for the SREF's, GGEM, GFS, and Euro siblings all would have sniffed this out....again, pending verification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like the title I figured you would! One question (if verification is indeed a coastal hugger) is why has the NOGAPS "grasped" this better than the GFS??? What part of this pattern does the GFS have such a problem, where the inferior NOGAPS is not? Or maybe it's not that simple. This would be a tremendous win for ensemble modeling ...for the SREF's, GGEM, GFS, and Euro siblings all would have sniffed this out....again, pending verification... I really don't know George. It may truly be a case of not being that simple. It may be a case of GFS and its truncation issues perhaps? I do know from my days as a marine met and shiprouter the "GAPS" was actually pretty good on lows and LP development in southern lats (South of 30N) pretty decent with TC's too. Now I know that this model has undergone some improvements (IMO for the worse, since my marine met days) but who knows. I don't claim to. TBH, again IMO, I think the ECEN and GEFS have been awesome this year. Again IMO better than their OP counterparts, especially in the +60-72 hour period. I'll also add that while I am not a big NAM fan I think it has gained my respect over the past few months especially within 48 hours of an event. Aside from its being a bit slow in starting and stopping an "event" its been pretty good inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OKX put out an HWO. They must have looked at the 18z runs. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OKX put out an HWO. They must have looked at the 18z runs. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME. Sounds very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z runs coming in more amplified, again, esp the NAM/SREF and RGEM thru 48. GFS delivers a swath of light-moderate snowfall to the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00Z NAM 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS has trended West almost 200 miles today...But it shows the phasing coming in to late to be of any good..It's too early to worry. The models won't have a good feel for this until most likely Monday. I think we will see phasing start when the storm gets up around Virginia. I do think this will be a major storm bringing someone a lot of snow. We will just have to wait 36-40 hours before we know who that will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wouldn't mind getting another 3-6" from this storm. Here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wouldn't mind getting another 3-6" from this storm. Here's hoping. thats very optimistic......hopefully you are right looks to pass S and SE of the region though, perhaps ottawa can get into some light snow for a light accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well after a quick perusal of 00z and 06z OP models...EC, UK, NAM and GFS game on for at least a moderate snowfall for CNY and ENY, especially for all areas along and south of I 90. This said upper HV and S'rn Dacks may be in the game too depending on how the coastal low evolves and ultimately tracks. The track and evolution of the H 7 and H850 lows will also be critical too. I'll talk more about this later today. I have to head out now but I'll be back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nice call andy,12z nam is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thats very optimistic......hopefully you are right looks to pass S and SE of the region though, perhaps ottawa can get into some light snow for a light accumulation. yes, it looks like Toronto will get more than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well after a quick perusal of 00z and 06z OP models...EC, UK, NAM and GFS game on for at least a moderate snowfall for CNY and ENY, especially for all areas along and south of I 90. This said upper HV and S'rn Dacks may be in the game too depending on how the coastal low evolves and ultimately tracks. The track and evolution of the H 7 and H850 lows will also be critical too. I'll talk more about this later today. I have to head out now but I'll be back... I agree...It to early to talk amounts..That said, Right now south of ALB and parts of Southern Vermount, look to see at least 8 inches of snow. If this comes together like I think it will. We could see Lake Champlain do a rare LES event into Nothern Vermount. The models should have a good handle on this in 24 hours...Right now they are trying to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 A few musings on the upcoming storm: 06z GEFS close to00z- ECEM with low near the New England BM. 12Z NAM still west IF it were to verify that track would place most of ENY and WNE in the maximum QPF. 12z GFS appears close to both last night's 00z EC and the ECEM. To me mixed signals on amount of QPF: Low's origin should favor mod-heavy "liquid" but SREFs (grant it we are still a bit out of the SREFS "wheelhouse") are rather paltry on amts > 3/10ths of an inch. (Speaking of the SREFS the 03 cycle had a very favorable LP track for ENY near Block Island). GEFS anomaly data for 850 winds however are AOA 2.5 with strong SE flow yet PWATS on Tuesday at 1000 mbs are only around +1 to +2 with the greatest anomalies AOA +2 off the SNE coast perhaps grazing the CC and ACK. Another feature to watch on this storm is the Mid-level C/O low that the models have tracking across IL-IN-OH-WNY. As this feature moves ene along the above track it will fill as it moves across the Alleghenies a NEW C/O will form near where the 2ndary or coastal wave will be tracking. During this time period of weakening of the initial C/O to the redevelopment of the new C/O low closer to the coastal low, the precip will likely either lighten up considerably or perhaps even stop in some areas for a while (especially across areas west of I81). Thus WNY may get only borderline moderate snow amounts circa 6" BUT it could be less. For now I am leaning toward a blend of the SREF/ECEM/GEFS on the track of the LP which would place the LP just west of the 40N70W BM. I would think that along a line from Ulster County Eastern eastern Schoharie in the Catskills north to about Saratoga Springs then on to S. VT has a high chance 70% of 7" of snow with about a 25% chance for a heavy snow (12"+) Areas to the north and west of this line have a 50% of getting up to 7" of snow. Again these are but preliminary impacts on my part and are not a forecast per se. I don't think any solid numbers should be made until at least Monday evening at the earliest. More later after I digest the 12z EC and ECEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If we can muster up 7 inches here the snowmobile trails should be decent. Nws bgm has not said much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A few musings on the upcoming storm: 06z GEFS close to00z- ECEM with low near the New England BM. 12Z NAM still west IF it were to verify that track would place most of ENY and WNE in the maximum QPF. 12z GFS appears close to both last night's 00z EC and the ECEM. To me mixed signals on amount of QPF: Low's origin should favor mod-heavy "liquid" but SREFs (grant it we are still a bit out of the SREFS "wheelhouse") are rather paltry on amts > 3/10ths of an inch. (Speaking of the SREFS the 03 cycle had a very favorable LP track for ENY near Block Island). GEFS anomaly data for 850 winds however are AOA 2.5 with strong SE flow yet PWATS on Tuesday at 1000 mbs are only around +1 to +2 with the greatest anomalies AOA +2 off the SNE coast perhaps grazing the CC and ACK. Another feature to watch on this storm is the Mid-level C/O low that the models have tracking across IL-IN-OH-WNY. As this feature moves ene along the above track it will fill as it moves across the Alleghenies a NEW C/O will form near where the 2ndary or coastal wave will be tracking. During this time period of weakening of the initial C/O to the redevelopment of the new C/O low closer to the coastal low, the precip will likely either lighten up considerably or perhaps even stop in some areas for a while (especially across areas west of I81). Thus WNY may get only borderline moderate snow amounts circa 6" BUT it could be less. For now I am leaning toward a blend of the SREF/ECEM/GEFS on the track of the LP which would place the LP just west of the 40N70W BM. I would think that along a line from Ulster County Eastern eastern Schoharie in the Catskills north to about Saratoga Springs then on to S. VT has a high chance 70% of 7" of snow with about a 25% chance for a heavy snow (12"+) Areas to the north and west of this line have a 50% of getting up to 7" of snow. Again these are but preliminary impacts on my part and are not a forecast per se. I don't think any solid numbers should be made until at least Monday evening at the earliest. More later after I digest the 12z EC and ECEM. sounds reasonble, storm looks to be a nonevent up here and along the international border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 sounds reasonble, storm looks to be a nonevent up here and along the international border. next weekend looks more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice write-up from BUF on the system this week. Hopefully this holds serve and all/most of upstate NY can reach at least advisory level snow. ON TUESDAY OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...WHICH HAS BEEN A RARITY SO FAR THIS WINTER. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY SURFACELOW WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILESECONDARY COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ABSORB THE PRIMARY LOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE PRIMARY OHIO VALLEY LOW...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE STEADILY DEEPENING. FORECAST BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A VERY DEEP LAYER OF FAVORABLE TEMPS/MOISTURE FOR DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING THE WRAP AROUND PHASE OF THE STORM SUGGESTING RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BY SYNOPTIC SNOW STANDARDS. SREF PLUME ANALYSIS FROM SELECTED POINTS ACROSS THE CWA SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TIMING AND QPF...WITH SREF MEAN SUGGESTING QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.30-0.40 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL QPF IS TYPICALLY A LITTLE HIGH WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...BUT EVEN SHAVING A LITTLE QPF OFF THE TOP SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5 OR 4-6 INCH TYPE EVENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TYPICAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 next weekend looks more interesting LR wasnt very exciting today but yeah, we'll have to keep an eye on next weekend and the early part of that week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LR wasnt very exciting today but yeah, we'll have to keep an eye on next weekend and the early part of that week I could be totally misreading the latest GFS, bit it seems to show the storm actually hitting us on Thursday. Mind you, I've been finding that some of the model maps have been mixed up lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z GFS 18z NAM This is the year to live in the HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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