Central PA Autumn 2026

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 44 here.  Weekend forecast has been deteriorating quickly, as that coastal storm wants to stay nice and tucked -- words that hopefully we're uttering come January.  Crystal ball says we end September with a mean temp of 69.2, a little over a degree above average and good for a tie for 25th place all-time.  Book it.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 44 here.  Weekend forecast has been deteriorating quickly, as that coastal storm wants to stay nice and tucked -- words that hopefully we're uttering come January.  Crystal ball says we end September with a mean temp of 69.2, a little over a degree above average and good for a tie for 25th place all-time.  Book it.

Let's hope your (ours) college team fares better tomorrow than your (not mine  ) NFL team did last night. Geez, that was ugly. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

It was frost everywhere out here this morning. No one else had frost? 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Well, maybe everywhere's a little bit of a stretch, but it was on all the roofs and cars out here early this morning. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Let's hope your (ours) college team fares better tomorrow than your (not mine  ) NFL team did last night. Geez, that was ugly. 

I don't know what you're talking about 

Buy yeah, seems like a lost season.  Gonna be a tough watch this year.  The issues are too many to list.  As for PSU, really bad news about Koby Howard.  Thinking they'll be taking some tough losses eventually too, just hopefully not tomorrow night. Football, what I let it do to me.  Aye.

[Voyager]

Per my NWS forecast, I could see a high end qpf of 1.5" from this storm. Wind here gusts to 30mph, but not likely in my sheltered backyard.

[Yardstickgozinya]

National Weather Service State College PA
153 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased wind gusts and POPs/QPF this weekend
* Stratified wx to rain vs. rain showers
* Lowered maxT Sunday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the
first weekend of Fall

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of
rain for the first weekend of Fall

Sensible weather conditions continue to trend incrementally
bearish on the margin particularly later Saturday through
Sunday as wind and rain impacts extend westward from powerful
Nor`easter tracking toward the NJ/Long Island/southern New
England coast. Latest model guidance favored a minor increase in
wind gusts and westward expansion of higher POPs/QPF to the
Allegheny Front. Locations throughout the Susquehanna Valley
will see the most persistent rain and strongest wind gusts up to
40 mph. We lowered max temps a few degrees Sunday due to the
combination of clouds, wind, and rain. We can`t rule out some
localized/minor impacts (sporadic power outages and tree damage)
due to the wind gusts especially across the eastern portions of
the CWA.

It`s still hard to say how far west the precip will reach with
the western Alleghenies most likely to continue an extended dry
stretch through much of next week. As the nor`easter lifts to
the northeast, conditions should steadily improve by the middle
of next week with temperatures poised to rebound above the
historical average for the end of September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR flight cats through tonight with increasing high
to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis
restrictions may occur in valley fog tonight and have kept
mention of VCFG at western and central airfields. LLWS forecast
throughout ZNY sector tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet
moves into the area on the west-side of powerful Nor`easter.
Rain could reach KMDT/KLNS by Saturday afternoon/evening.
Highest confidence in sub-VFR will be over the eastern half of
the airspace through Sunday. Winds/gusts from 330-030 degrees
will increase Saturday into Sunday maxing out around 30kts.

Outlook...

Mon-Wed...Improving conditions trending VFR by midweek.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

[canderson]

MDT might get 3/4” inch Sunday. There goes my concert. 

[ChescoWx]

Latest NBM with model rain

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's so weird how strong this noreaster is for September. It's so windy out it feels like it's another month and not September. I was also reading that the record breaking super el nino is slightly related to why we got a noreaster this strong this early in the season which is interesting but not surprising.

[Yardstickgozinya]

 

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
342 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased/darkened the sky cover grids across the board for
  the next 60 hrs
* Increased winds and gusts slightly, especially over the east
  today and Sunday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the
first weekend of Fall

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of
rain for the first weekend of Fall

Big storm will tuck itself between Long Island and NJ for the
weekend. It will deepen to about 990mb depending on your
numerical model/ensemble member of choice. At least one solution
has the sfc low getting as far W as the Delaware River. Most
keep the western extent of it`s wobbly track around the Jersey
Shore.

The wind already made a gust near 30KT at Wellsboro (KN38)
around midnight and VAD Wind Profile from KCCX has 50KT winds
not even 4kft aloft. KPHL has just gusted to 40KT (which is wind
advy level). We may have to consider a wind advy, but current
and previous thinking is that most gusts should stay in the 30s
over our CWA. Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill and Sullivan
Counties are the most-possible locations to get a 40+KT gust.
The gradient stays similar in tightness from mid-day today
through Sunday evening.

Very light rainfall has already begun at PHL, and will work back
to the west through the day. Expect some drops to hit the ground
before 10 AM, and perhaps before 8 AM, in Lancaster Co. QPF is
minor. The highest rainfall will be later tonight and through
the day Sunday. Storm total numbers range from near 1" in New
Holland and Dushore to less than a tenth of an inch from State
College west.

As the nor`easter lifts to the northeast later Monday,
conditions should steadily improve with temperatures poised to
rebound above the historical average for the end of September.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR flight cats through the night with increasing
high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized
vis restrictions may occur in valley fog later tonight, but the
probability of prolonged restrictions at any TAF sites is too
low to include in the forecast. LLWS is expected throughout the
ZNY airspace tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into
the area on the west-side of a powerful Nor`easter. Surface
winds increase to 10-15 knots out of the northeast after sunrise
and gusts of 25-30 knots are expected for much of the day. The
highest gusts will occur at southeastern sites. Light rain will
approach MDT and LNS during the afternoon, but the rest of the
region should remain dry into the the first part of Saturday
night.

A strong low-level jet will remain in place over much of Central
PA through much of Saturday night, but the strongest winds may
remain just above 2000 feet for most locations. Because of this,
LLWS has been kept out of most of the TAFs. After a break in the
rain during the evening, another round of steady rain moves in
from the east as the surface low moves closer to the region. The
biggest uncertainty in the forecast is just how far west this
rain makes it during the day on Sunday. Ceilings should
gradually drop to MVFR at MDT and LNS as the steadier rain moves
in.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[Superstorm]

Light rain, but I see blue skies to west….pretty cool


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 57. Looks like some rain might move in earlier than expected. A high impact weekend upon us. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Really cool satellite image this morning showing the sharp edge to the system and the extended shadow cast by the easterly sun. 

[ChescoWx]

The Nor’easter is located off the NJ coast this morning and will drift toward and possibly into South Jersey by tomorrow AM and finally weaken on Monday. The ChescoWx model has over 1.80" of rain here in East Nantmeal by Monday morning. Winds could gust today as high as 40 mph causing some trees to fall and some power outages. Very chilly today with highs mostly remaining in the 50's. Once the storm passes we start a warming trend with highs by mid-week in the low to mid 70's which is a few degrees above normal for the very end of September.

[canderson]

I‘M just glad this will fleet out by kidney. My wife has a rally with 1,000 people coming to the Capitol. 
 

Anyone think an outdoor concert on the river at 8 pm Sunday actually happens? Lol 

[Voyager]

Moderate steady rain here. Started about a half hour ago. Looks to be rainy for the rest of morning/afternoon. 

[Superstorm]

Light rain. Temp down to 57F.


.

[TheDreamTraveler]

This nor'easter sure is looking just a little tad subtropical imo

[TheDreamTraveler]

Stole this from the NYC thread but figured some might appreciate it here

 

[canderson]

21 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Stole this from the NYC thread but figured some might appreciate it here

 

Strongest hurricane of the season!  

[Voyager]

It's not tropical, but it sure looks like it. Quite the eye our there.

So far .35" here in the Skook.

[AccuChris]

Picked up 0.53” so far today in Lebanon


.

[canderson]

I’m old enough to remember two days ago CTP said we’d be dry until middle of next week lol