October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Also, and something @CoastalWxshould pay attention more to, the high in Quebec is 5 mb stronger than fcst.  15z Wed it was 1041 mb, which is an exceptional high pressure value for this area in Sep.  00z it was 1038 mb.

So again, don't underestimate the wind potential here.  It is just as much about the high to the N than the low to the S!  The high holds its ground for the entire event.
 

1041 is very impressive. 

[vortex95]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. 

Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. 

We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. 

If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often. 

 

Prob of TS graphic from ECMWF...great!  Did not know about that from WxModels.  The ECMWF site itself has it as well.
 

[WxWatcher007]

FWIW, the GFS is slightly stronger and further west. 

[vortex95]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. 

Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. 

We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. 

If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often. 

 

Those TC probs are *non-trivial*.  Certainly enough to say something in the TWO, so you see what I mean.  This is not a far-fetched situation from a model probability standpoint, and lots of decision go/no go as from model probs.  As I like to say, you can't have it both ways here!  Highlight systems w/ 0/0 percent chance and then ignore something like this?

And beyond the the model probs, from a empirical fcst skill/experience, such a formation is quite possible.  So objective end subjective combined, that's how to do it!
 

[DirtySnowDen]

The uncertainty is what’s has my “brain-a-tickin’

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW, the GFS is slightly stronger and further west. 

Picking up on the stronger high pressure…?  And we are getting closer in now, maybe it’s getting a clue?   And yes…that 1041 high is very impressive, have we ever/how often have we seen that in September while a system will be climbing the coast? 

[DirtySnowDen]

I’d like this thing to go OTS, but considering the time frame, I’m expecting something of a “landfall” in RI, the high pressure to the north is going to be the determining factor and how it splits. Another smaller, yet important factor, is going to be how strong the Low deepens upon their “dance.” 

[Prismshine Productions]

Wonder if Polo being Polo is downstream pumping to cause a bit more atmospheric friction?... It was not forecasted to get as strong as it did

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Picking up on the stronger high pressure…?  And we are getting closer in now, maybe it’s getting a clue?   And yes…that 1041 high is very impressive, have we ever/how often have we seen that in September while a system will be climbing the coast? 

Maybe it’s getting a clue, but there’s still a ways to go before we have our well formed low. 

At the moment it’s still a highly strung out weak low attached to a frontal boundary.

 

[Cyclone-68]

Probably a dumb question but what was the strongest sub tropical storm to ever happen in the Atlantic?

[Prismshine Productions]

Probably a dumb question but what was the strongest sub tropical storm to ever happen in the Atlantic?

Unnamed Subtropical Storm 1968
85mph
979mb

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

He loves absolutism….and it’s backfired on him more than once. 

Dude trust me. Scotty knows 

[CoastalWx]

Euro trying for nj again. Lol 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro trying for nj again. Lol 

Robust but south. Gotta imagine the Euro and GFS meet in the middle as they usually do.