Tropical Depression Five

[NorthHillsWx]

One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…

[SnowenOutThere]

Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET and other global probably are of little value due to how tiny system is. But fwiw and for the record:

12Z UKMET initializes this as a TD:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

[WxWatcher007]

The radar presentation has improved quite a bit in the last few hours. We’ll see if it can develop an inner core quickly. If so, the ceiling rises substantially. 18z hurricane guidance now that there’s recon data on a defined center should be useful.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data through early this
afternoon showed the low-level circulation of this system gradually
becoming better defined, and it was sufficient to designate it as
Tropical Depression Five for the 18 UTC intermediate advisory. This
is consistent with the improved radar and satellite presentation of
the system, with a prominent curved band now evident to the south of
the center. The aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of
38 kt earlier today, and TAFB provided a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate
at 18 UTC. These data support a 30-kt intensity for this advisory.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to
investigate the system tonight.
 
The center of the depression lies to the north and east of prior
estimates based on the aircraft data and recent surface
observations. A low-level ridge over the southeastern United States
is steering the system toward the west-northwest (300/5 kt), and
this general motion should continue through the next couple of days.
The system is expected to move onshore along the northwestern Gulf
Coast within the warning area on Tuesday, with the updated 24-h
forecast point just offshore. There were no significant changes to
the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast was
adjusted slightly north of the previous prediction mainly due to the
repositioning of the center.
 
The tropical cyclone is fairly compact and has a small radius of
maximum wind. Although it only has about a day over the very warm
Gulf waters, strengthening is expected within a generally low shear
environment. Since the small size of the system makes it more
susceptible to quicker intensity changes, the NHC intensity forecast
has been raised and now lies above almost all of the intensity
guidance, including HCCA and IVCN. The legacy hurricane regional
models (HWRF/HMON) show even more strengthening than is forecast
here. While this does not appear to be the most likely scenario,
interests in the warning area are reminded to closely monitor the
latest forecast updates.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on
Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Bolivar,
Texas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, Louisiana.
 
2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and
Wednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely
across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may
also be possible.
 
3. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, Texas, to 
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana. Peak values of up to 
4 feet above ground level are possible within the watch area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 28.2N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 28.8N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 29.6N  93.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 30.6N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  02/1800Z 31.6N  96.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
  

[NorthHillsWx]

Latest HWRF says our first hurricane of 2026 will make landfall on the Tx/La border about this time tomorrow...

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty serious organizational trend ongoing. Would not shock me to see some significant strengthening soon. This might be one we are posting about “thankfully not having more time over water”. Outflow looks well established and storms are clearly aligning the MLC and newly formed SLC. Starting to see winds ramp up on buoy and oil rig obs too

[WxWatcher007]

Ugh. Short fuse TC development right along the coast. So hard to chase…

[Scott747]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ugh. Short fuse TC development right along the coast. So hard to chase…

Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.

 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.

 

I have a bunch of work stuff scheduled, but if this is the real deal I might just try a quick turnaround flight. Radar definitely looks increasingly robust and seeing this kind of organization at this time of the day is intriguing. 

[CoastalWx]

It lacks deep convection though. Not impressive on IR...but I do see the well defined circulation on radar.

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/2094534882815082520?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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[NorthHillsWx]

I like NHC call if around 50 kts landfall. Don’t think it has time for hurricane intensity unless it can throw up some serious overnight convection, but the overall organization and small circulation definitely favors intensification. That dry air to the north could choke off development, that needs to be watched, but otherwise it has a good look overall

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It lacks deep convection though. Not impressive on IR...but I do see the well defined circulation on radar.

True, but I think what matters here is that there’s still shallow convection firing around the center. The circulation has continued to become better defined with spiral banding now. Radar definitely helps. A well-timed DMAX burst in the morning with some frictional convergence could help this spin up nicely. Can see that a bit now that HAFS has recon data assimilated now.