E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 10/24/2026 at 6:34 PM, RedSky said:

Blue sky like every single day has that ever happened before

Yes, 2 years ago, it didn't rain during the entire month of October.

[ChescoWx]

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. This is about 3 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday we warm to near 70 degrees which is 6 to 10 degrees above normal, before we return to near normal by Saturday. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Monday with around 1.0" possible according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 6.16" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.

[ChescoWx]

Looking ahead at the ensemble models it looks like above normal temperatures continue over the next month. That said keep in mind that our average normal temperatures continue to drop quickly over this timeframe. It also looks to be wetter than normal. Some models are even hinting at some accumulating snow by the week before Thanksgiving. 

[ChescoWx]

10 of the 22 Chesco area stations most at relatively higher elevations have yet to record a below freezing temp. Here in EN I usually don't see a freeze till November and this year looks like no exception. Of note I receive the least amount of freezing days across these observation sites.

[penndotguy]

Just curious what is state of the El Niño? Is still waining? 

[MGorse]

50 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Just curious what is state of the El Niño? Is still waining? 

El Nino continues to strengthen. 

The latest from the Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 

[Birds~69]

Good night to grab a glass of whiskey and stare at the moon...

51F

[ChescoWx]

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the low to mid 40's. Highs will reach well into the 60's to near 70 degrees through Friday which is 5 to 9 degrees above normal before we chill down a bit to near normal by Saturday for the trick or treaters, but by Sunday we warm to the mid 60's which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. It has been a while since our last rain but a chance of a shower or two next Wednesday according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 3 day storm that left as much as 6.97" of rain at the Nottingham DEOS. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.

[ChescoWx]

I really can't remember such a great stretch of weather in a long time! The GFS for East Nantmeal keeps us mild through the first week of November

[The Iceman]

I'm far from a pro but the hobbyist in me thinks this winter is going to be a struggle. I think pac air will flood the continent and we struggle to get the cold air necessary for snow. I foresee a lot of cold rain. My guess for SE PA/NJ/DE would be 5 - 10" and most of that in one or two storms that either start as snow or end as snow.   Super balls to the wall east based Nino rarely plays out well here. I hope I'm wrong but I'm heading into winter with measured expectations. Euro weeklies looked pretty bleak imo, storm tracks look underneath of us but the continent is flooded with warm pac air. Perfect track rainstorms may be the theme much like 97-98. I do think it'll be wet though so there's a chance snowfall could end up surprising like 2015-2016 if everything comes together in a favorable week or two period(cold air, blocking). I don't see a 6 week hard freeze like last year thats for sure... I think DJF temps averages +2 - +4, precip is above normal, snow below normal. I honestly just hope we don't get skunked again like 19-20 or 22-23.

Temps:

Dec +1 - +3

Jan +2 - + 4

Feb +3 - +5 

 

Precip: 

Dec: Above average

Jan: Average

Feb: Above Average

 

[The Iceman]

@PhiEaglesfan712you brought up 94-95 in another thread and I spent my lunch break looking into that winter, that is a very good sneaky analog. Not as strong of an el nino but the solar and PDO are pretty good fits. Outside of this storm, it was a pretty bleak winter. Kind of like 2015-2016 though

 

[JTA66]

94-95 was basically a one hit wonder with an 8-10" in Feb. I remember having my windows open one January evening because we were in the 70's. At least the one-hit wonder in 2016 was a bomb, so I'll hold out weenie hope for that.

But terms like "strong, east-based El Nino" don't have me gassing up the snow blower.