Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[Winter Wizard]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just can't get over the environment. 50-60 knots of bulk shear per mesoanalysis with >40 knots of effective shear. Forecast is for ~200 m2/s2 of of effective helicity with MLCAPE approaching and exceeding 2000-2500 J/KG. Forecast hodos. Based on what CAMS are spitting out its very difficult to believe we will come out of today without any significant severe. Hopefully anyone camping or out in those areas is aware and has shelter plans.

 

Hopefully the moose are aware.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just can't get over the environment. 50-60 knots of bulk shear per mesoanalysis with >40 knots of effective shear. Forecast is for ~200 m2/s2 of of effective helicity with MLCAPE approaching and exceeding 2000-2500 J/KG. Forecast hodos. Based on what CAMS are spitting out its very difficult to believe we will come out of today without any significant severe. Hopefully anyone camping or out in those areas is aware and has shelter plans.

 

The thing about this event is that even if we blow the surface based opportunity, you could still rip some elevated hailers through with golf balls or greater.

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

About as useless as today’s event then. An EF3 will probably rip up a few million trees and no one will know. 

I don't know if Maine has ever had a confirmed EF3 (or stronger).

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I don't know if Maine has ever had a confirmed EF3 (or stronger).

They have not. But it is also exceedingly difficult to rate up to EF3 with tree damage alone.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The thing about this event is that even if we blow the surface based opportunity, you could still rip some elevated hailers through with golf balls or greater.

For sure. Tons of CAPE up in the hail zone