jaxjagman Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Least we are starting to see the the PDO changing for that matter as well so is the IOD,IOD should be warmer in a strong NINO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 On 10/6/2026 at 3:45 PM, Carvers Gap said: Sorry for the long pause. My mom passed away last week after a long illness. She fought the good fight, and ran a great race. She bought me my first weather radio when I was a kid. So, just kind of regrouping mentally. Both the Oct CANSIPS and Euro seasonals are depicting a DJF(March as well) Hudson Bay block. That block can really go either way here in the subforum. Some winters that locks in a pretty cold pattern, and other times(as Jeff has note), we see zonal result. That is a tricky, trick block. It is great for storm tracks, but iffy for cold supply. BN heights are found over the SE for DJFM w/ deepening results found in February. Classic El Nino. That could be snowy and cold, rainy and meh, or a combo of both. Cold sources could be lacking in Canada. Carver. Very sorry for your loss. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golf757075 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 I hope we don't have a big strong low in the Pacific, which is typical in stronger Niños. Hoping its further west to allow occasional cold shots to come south. The -PDO is interesting if it persists, because typically its in sync with Niños. Also, the climate models are just tools. I know most take them with a grain of salt, but am hoping its colder here than they currently indicate. El niños haven't been too kind to us lately, but niñas have done better imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 On 10/6/2026 at 4:45 PM, Carvers Gap said: Sorry for the long pause. My mom passed away last week after a long illness. She fought the good fight, and ran a great race. She bought me my first weather radio when I was a kid. So, just kind of regrouping mentally. Both the Oct CANSIPS and Euro seasonals are depicting a DJF(March as well) Hudson Bay block. That block can really go either way here in the subforum. Some winters that locks in a pretty cold pattern, and other times(as Jeff has note), we see zonal result. That is a tricky, trick block. It is great for storm tracks, but iffy for cold supply. BN heights are found over the SE for DJFM w/ deepening results found in February. Classic El Nino. That could be snowy and cold, rainy and meh, or a combo of both. Cold sources could be lacking in Canada. I have been out of town for the last week....I am sorry to hear this, Carver...my condolences to you and your family. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted October 17 Share Posted October 17 https://snow.wall.cloud/?cwa=MEG&view=overview&signal=PNA&outcome=occurrencehttps://snow.wall.cloud/?cwa=OHX&view=overview&signal=PNA&outcome=occurrencehttps://snow.wall.cloud/?cwa=HUN&view=overview&signal=PNA&outcome=occurrencehttps://snow.wall.cloud/?cwa=MRX&view=overview&signal=PNA&outcome=occurrenceThought I would repost dr Johnathan wall snow signal cwa forcast since it’s available now for Meg ohx and hun also the majority of the cwa 157 at the moment all across the conus . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 18 Share Posted October 18 Euro has been fairly consistent the last several day of strenghtening the MJO into the IO,CFS is going into the Maritime but seemingly could just be interference via Rossby Wave,hard to go against the Euro IMO as consistent its been the last several days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 18 Share Posted October 18 Frosty 31 degrees this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 You got your freeze @John..lol.We was 4 degrees BN yesterday,would rather see some rain right now,looks like thats not going to work out very well the next 7-days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 We'll probably get periods of -NAO as the massive tropical warmth pushes poleward and tries to reflect back. However, cold air supply will be a problem. Fighting the PDO could be a problem. I'm still looking for a really mild winter. First for November, if any of these weekly products are even close.. tee up severe leading into Thanksgiving! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KakashiHatake2000 Posted Sunday at 04:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:19 AM Saw this posted on another form and also all over social media but we will see about this I guess I am a snow (weenie) . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM DT is sounding the bell regarding the SSWE and its never-seen-before timing in a Super El Nino setup. I guess that means the QBO plots should be crashing at some point on the horizon? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golf757075 Posted yesterday at 01:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:17 AM 6 hours ago, *Flash* said: DT is sounding the bell regarding the SSWE and its never-seen-before timing in a Super El Nino setup. I guess that means the QBO plots should be crashing at some point on the horizon? My only concern is even if we see it, to get cold enough for snow will be confined to the higher elevations and if the PV gets stronger after, it will make it even more tough to get cold with the super strong niño. Unless this SSW debunks going trends, which i hope it does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago If the weeklies are to be believed, we likely see snow by the first or second week of December. Huge if of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 7 hours ago, John1122 said: If the weeklies are to be believed, we likely see snow by the first or second week of December. Huge if of course. If the SSW works out and things move along quickly, may be looking at the possibility of an old fashioned Thanksgiving Mountain Snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago I remain bearish despite SSW talk. First, the signal is better for Europe than it is for NA. Next, we've seen Novembers with such warmings go cold in Europe and keep Eastern US ridge. Couple good X accounts that post more Southeast AmWx had sources (on X). Anyway, I like the warm forecast, so I just liked and scrolled on. Some chatter about Arctic blocking and snow cover came up. Wrong pressure signal though. Eastern Siberia is low press. China is normal. For cold we want China low press and Siberia surface high. That's the cold building. Currently eastern Siberia snow build is not blocking, but storminess. Continue robust Pacific jet. Continue mild Southeast US. Bonus: Scandinavia block could get more bullish for Europe. I hope not for their sake, and because one country keeps bombing civilian heating of another country that way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 12 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: I remain bearish despite SSW talk. First, the signal is better for Europe than it is for NA. Next, we've seen Novembers with such warmings go cold in Europe and keep Eastern US ridge. Couple good X accounts that post more Southeast AmWx had sources (on X). Anyway, I like the warm forecast, so I just liked and scrolled on. Some chatter about Arctic blocking and snow cover came up. Wrong pressure signal though. Eastern Siberia is low press. China is normal. For cold we want China low press and Siberia surface high. That's the cold building. Currently eastern Siberia snow build is not blocking, but storminess. Continue robust Pacific jet. Continue mild Southeast US. Bonus: Scandinavia block could get more bullish for Europe. I hope not for their sake, and because one country keeps bombing civilian heating of another country that way. It's hard to go for much cold with a strong Nino. Even if the SSW were to create strong HLB the strong Nino enhanced Jet may keep the what would be downstream Eastern Trough shunted NE. For the sake of winter weather lover's, let's hope that's not the Case and we get at least a period of wintry wx in what normally would be Nino's warmest Time (late Nov/December). Depending on how fast the Nino fades, we may get lucky late Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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