Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[nrgjeff]

El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather!

My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.

[Matthew70]

Come on wooly worms!  Lol!

[John1122]

I'm seeing stories comparing this to the El Nino of 1877-78 which they say was the year without winter in North America. But looking back, Knoxville was near normal in December and -1.2 in Jan and similar in Feb. The El Nino developed in Jan 1877 and peaked in November. 

[Carvers Gap]

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN.  Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies.  Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing.  Every, single time.

I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times.  The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward.  I have been watching solar flux lately.  I know...I am bored w/ this pattern.  Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us.  I actually don't like solar flux spikes.  I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize.  

I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN.

Dec - AN

Jan - AN 

Feb - Normal

Snow for NE TN only!

Dec - BN

Jan - Normal

Feb - Normal

My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me.  The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level.  It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska.  Euro seasonal are not enthused.  That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly.  

I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track.  They may or may not result in anything.  But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter.  

Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN.  My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out.  The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip.  If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses.  If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates.  Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair.  Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold.

PDO is a wildcard.

[Carvers Gap]

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.

[fountainguy97]

From Ben Noll. I'll take my chances.

 

off topic. But it's a shame I have to always delete my old post images due to space. I completely understand why. Still unfortunate especially when going back years later and there arnt any model images.

[Golf757075]

On 8/7/2026 at 9:24 PM, fountainguy97 said:

From Ben Noll. I'll take my chances.

 

off topic. But it's a shame I have to always delete my old post images due to space. I completely understand why. Still unfortunate especially when going back years later and there arnt any model images.

If we can get any cold air, those images would verify imo this winter

[jaxjagman]

Maybe this Nino has a mind of it own,its still mind boggling to see the PDO so negative,it should be the oppostite right now.maybe that will change in the couple months ahead

Tn Valley in a typical strong NINO is dry unlike the 2015-16 Nino that was in a west based and central NINO unlike this year.We  just as well we are in a WQBO and should stay that way this winter

[*Flash*]

Good morning, all! Long time, no talk. I'm going to share more specific thoughts as we get closer to DJF, but for now I want to offer a reminder for those newer to the forum. When we start talking super ENSO, you're inevitably going to hear about the climatology-backed warm biases—and understandably so, given precedent.

But speaking strictly as a layman with more than 30 years of lived weather experience in Middle Tennessee, I've learned not to equate the seasonal mean with our ability to capitalize on a winter-weather window. Those windows may be fewer or shorter in a super ENSO regime, but every super ENSO winter I've experienced here has still produced at least one notable storm to hang a hat on.

Are we overdue for a dud? Absolutely. But some of the best winter-weather windows I've experienced have been sandwiched inside otherwise meh winters on paper.

Give me a highly amplified, mobile, extreme pattern with radical variables in play, and I'll take my chances.

[nrgjeff]

Yes it only takes one storm to make a season in the South. Perfect overrunning, a bowling ball, or an actual open wave bomb. Yeah, the latter seems less likely every year, but the other two still happen. 

Then it depends on location. 2025 was a rare, great winter for Chattanooga. January featured back-to-back snows including one that way overachieved by not going to ice sooner. Rest of the forum seemed unimpressed by their event(s).

But yeah, my main forecast is warm and rainy with occasional severe weather. Long time readers are used to my severe saber rattling. 

[John1122]

I'm seeing a lot of drum banging about the Euro seasonal throwing out a lot of +PNA/-NAO looks. AKA the holy grail for snow lovers.

[nrgjeff]

CFS and ECMWF are both pretty cold for core winter. However several other season models are warmer. I suppose if one cranks up the El Nino signal it goes cool South. +PNA would be expected if the PDO gets lined up - still TBD. Then yes the -NAO can happen with forcing downrange and poleward of the Tropics. That's all review for many readers, but with noting.

My thinking is that the modeling is not yet coded for such a warm Nino. I figure we flood the atmosphere with warmth across the board. Sadly if the South does get BN temps it might be cloudy crappy days with meh nights. Figure we'll get a few cold weeks, but most of summer I'm thinking blowtorch from El Nino Godzilla.

[John1122]

 

Euro snow mean is AN. 

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'm seeing a lot of drum banging about the Euro seasonal throwing out a lot of +PNA/-NAO looks. AKA the holy grail for snow lovers.

CANSIPS has had a big western ridge(AK) for two straight seasonal runs - July and August.

[Carvers Gap]

Generally, big Ninos are warm here IMBY.  But...it doesn't take my imagination much to think about what "could" happen if cold managed to find its way where w/ the STJ absolutely ripping.  Maybe 09-10 is an analog, but not perfect?  For me, this winter is a mystery and not a slam dunk like the previous two Nina winters.  The other thing is if the Nino crashes midway through winter, and allows cold air to rush SE w/ the precip pattern in place.  I don't think winter will be overly cold.   But the it doesn't have to be crazy cold if January goes climo w/ a loaded precip pattern.  Tough call.  If the CANSIPS holds for the next two runs, that would be a good step.  Also, analogs have been super sketchy during the past decade in regards to being accurate.  A lot of seasonal forecasts are analog based I think.  All of that said...we have seen during recent winters that there have been big snows in the northern hemisphere where amped precip jets hit cold air.  Some yet-to-be place in NA seems primed for that.

[jaxjagman]

I agree with what Flash said above.Just because its warm dont mean someone cant score this winter,In .I.E the strong 97=98 NINO the Cumberland got blasted by a wet snow storm around 20"@John would know more about that,i wasnt living in TN at that time

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19980203

[Golf757075]

This niño looks to be crazy strong. Nobody denying that. The key if we get cold will be if the niño stays east based. If it does, it will be more difficult to see cold weather compared to central based or east central based imo. Only take one winter storm to make a season. Still way out there but important nonetheless 

[jaxjagman]

Last typhoon that hit East China warmed the SSTS off East Asia especially East  off Japan.Still myself would rather to see the PDO right now to rise and not fall.We might be seeing a repeat of the pattern we are in as we get closer to end of August into Sept.

That strong WWB ongoing along with the Rossbly Waves should really kick off some tropical  storms in the PAC the next few weeks

[KakashiHatake2000]

Dr Johnathan wall created this program and the cwa mrx (East Tennessee) was recently added by him hoping they add more cwas also Meg and ohx (west TN and middle TN) etc https://snow.wall.cloud https://www.x.com/wallcloud/status/2090549132221993255?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg

.

[Carvers Gap]

On 8/21/2026 at 8:02 PM, KakashiHatake2000 said:

Dr Johnathan wall created this program and the cwa mrx (East Tennessee) was recently added by him hoping they add more cwas also Meg and ohx (west TN and middle TN) etc https://snow.wall.cloud https://www.x.com/wallcloud/status/2090549132221993255?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg

.

Great product and great share!  I am going to have to wade through all of that, but I generally understand 75% of the output - but not all.  Meaning, I need to learn how to toggle all of that.  We are missing snow data at TRI for several big winters unless that has been fixed recently...notably 95-96.  Some of those missing data pieces include blizzards which have been scaled back to smaller events.  It would be awesome to put @John1122 family's data into that algorithm of JW's.  His family has the gold standard for private, uncorrupted, and ongoing wx obs for this forum.  Even thought they don't match my region perfectly (he is further west and on the Plateau), I still trust his data above all others.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Oh I see understandable and that’s neat very interesting fascinating and good to know stuff I figured people on here would be interested but i don’t know much about it either to be honest


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[jaxjagman]

PDO next update shouldnt change much with a typhoon headed into east China the next couple days.Maybe this winter will have its own analogs,but i wouldn't rely on a +PDO,probably wont happen ATM,thats rare in a strong NINO those SSTS east of Japan,lets go skiing in West Japan this winter?Very unique pattern regardless

[John1122]

Looks like the Nino flatlined a little more than expected the last week or two. It's actually weakening considerably in 3-4. It may not quite peak as high as predicted. Regarding the PDO. Nino winters had positive PDO in something like 80 percent of moderate to strong ninos. 2023-24 was the only -pdo winter for one of them in the last 75 years.

[jaxjagman]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Looks like the Nino flatlined a little more than expected the last week or two. It's actually weakening considerably in 3-4. It may not quite peak as high as predicted. Regarding the PDO. Nino winters had positive PDO in something like 80 percent of moderate to strong ninos. 2023-24 was the only -pdo winter for one of them in the last 75 years.

That not true to some extent,while the 82-83 strong NINO showed a -PDO into srping  it went positive into summer.That  82-83 winter was quite uniques alone which had the help of a EQBO and not a WQBO this year

[jaxjagman]

NINO looks still strong to me,you even see another strong WWB into Sept with hardly any EWB,start seeing EWB around South America should be one of the first signs the Walker Circulation is breaking down,until then

[Golf757075]

On 8/25/2026 at 11:42 PM, jaxjagman said:

NINO looks still strong to me,you even see another strong WWB into Sept with hardly any EWB,start seeing EWB around South America should be one of the first signs the Walker Circulation is breaking down,until then

Jax, you seem pretty smart with weather stuff. I found this image interesting. What are your thoughts? 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Golf757075 said:

Jax, you seem pretty smart with weather stuff. I found this image interesting. What are your thoughts? 

1 hour ago, Golf757075 said:

Jax, you seem pretty smart with weather stuff. I found this image interesting. What are your thoughts? 

More than likely this was because of LaLa when it hit Hawaii

[Carvers Gap]

The Sept 1 seasonal CANSIPS barely budges on its cold winter idea for the SE.  Big PNA ridge and trough east of Hawaii.  Split flow and seasonal cold.  I remain skeptical, but a normal "biased warm" model is cold for our DJF time frame.  Precip is AN for most of the region, and much AN for far eastern areas.  Temps are BN.  There is a coastal storm signal for the entire winter.  We'll see!  But man....

And if correct, it implies the worst of winter might well drag into March w/ an anomalous PNA ridge which reaches almost to the NP.  Normally, these types of winters feature a stable PV, but good luck if that setup occurs.

[John1122]

MRX released a graphic about August severe events in the area. They were centered on SWVA it seemed like, but the number lined up almost exactly with the 2006 El Nino August. Both were in the 70s for severe reports, with 2006 I think at 79 and this year 75.  That was well above average and the 75 was 3rd most August severe events in the last 20 years. The winter of 2006/07 was near normal in December,  decently AN in Jan, and fairly BN in February. It was relatively low on snow amounts, but here on the northern Plateau we got a few snow events in February.

[nrgjeff]

I'm wall to wall blowtorch. Deep South severe all winter. Early season start to severe Mid-South. Of course the eastern Valley will find a way to be cool. Great for storm anxious, but just one more thing about which I will vent!