Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[nrgjeff]

El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather!

My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.

[Matthew70]

Come on wooly worms!  Lol!

[John1122]

I'm seeing stories comparing this to the El Nino of 1877-78 which they say was the year without winter in North America. But looking back, Knoxville was near normal in December and -1.2 in Jan and similar in Feb. The El Nino developed in Jan 1877 and peaked in November. 

[Carvers Gap]

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN.  Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies.  Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing.  Every, single time.

I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times.  The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward.  I have been watching solar flux lately.  I know...I am bored w/ this pattern.  Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us.  I actually don't like solar flux spikes.  I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize.  

I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN.

Dec - AN

Jan - AN 

Feb - Normal

Snow for NE TN only!

Dec - BN

Jan - Normal

Feb - Normal

My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me.  The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level.  It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska.  Euro seasonal are not enthused.  That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly.  

I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track.  They may or may not result in anything.  But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter.  

Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN.  My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out.  The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip.  If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses.  If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates.  Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair.  Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold.

PDO is a wildcard.

[Carvers Gap]

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.

[fountainguy97]

From Ben Noll. I'll take my chances.

 

off topic. But it's a shame I have to always delete my old post images due to space. I completely understand why. Still unfortunate especially when going back years later and there arnt any model images.

[Golf757075]

On 8/7/2026 at 9:24 PM, fountainguy97 said:

From Ben Noll. I'll take my chances.

 

off topic. But it's a shame I have to always delete my old post images due to space. I completely understand why. Still unfortunate especially when going back years later and there arnt any model images.

If we can get any cold air, those images would verify imo this winter

[jaxjagman]

Maybe this Nino has a mind of it own,its still mind boggling to see the PDO so negative,it should be the oppostite right now.maybe that will change in the couple months ahead

Tn Valley in a typical strong NINO is dry unlike the 2015-16 Nino that was in a west based and central NINO unlike this year.We  just as well we are in a WQBO and should stay that way this winter

[*Flash*]

Good morning, all! Long time, no talk. I'm going to share more specific thoughts as we get closer to DJF, but for now I want to offer a reminder for those newer to the forum. When we start talking super ENSO, you're inevitably going to hear about the climatology-backed warm biases—and understandably so, given precedent.

But speaking strictly as a layman with more than 30 years of lived weather experience in Middle Tennessee, I've learned not to equate the seasonal mean with our ability to capitalize on a winter-weather window. Those windows may be fewer or shorter in a super ENSO regime, but every super ENSO winter I've experienced here has still produced at least one notable storm to hang a hat on.

Are we overdue for a dud? Absolutely. But some of the best winter-weather windows I've experienced have been sandwiched inside otherwise meh winters on paper.

Give me a highly amplified, mobile, extreme pattern with radical variables in play, and I'll take my chances.

[nrgjeff]

Yes it only takes one storm to make a season in the South. Perfect overrunning, a bowling ball, or an actual open wave bomb. Yeah, the latter seems less likely every year, but the other two still happen. 

Then it depends on location. 2025 was a rare, great winter for Chattanooga. January featured back-to-back snows including one that way overachieved by not going to ice sooner. Rest of the forum seemed unimpressed by their event(s).

But yeah, my main forecast is warm and rainy with occasional severe weather. Long time readers are used to my severe saber rattling.