Winter 26-27’ Speculation Thread

[nrgjeff]

El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather!

My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.

[Matthew70]

Come on wooly worms!  Lol!

[John1122]

I'm seeing stories comparing this to the El Nino of 1877-78 which they say was the year without winter in North America. But looking back, Knoxville was near normal in December and -1.2 in Jan and similar in Feb. The El Nino developed in Jan 1877 and peaked in November. 

[Carvers Gap]

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN.  Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies.  Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing.  Every, single time.

I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times.  The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward.  I have been watching solar flux lately.  I know...I am bored w/ this pattern.  Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us.  I actually don't like solar flux spikes.  I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize.  

I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN.

Dec - AN

Jan - AN 

Feb - Normal

Snow for NE TN only!

Dec - BN

Jan - Normal

Feb - Normal

My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me.  The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level.  It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska.  Euro seasonal are not enthused.  That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly.  

I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track.  They may or may not result in anything.  But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter.  

Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN.  My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out.  The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip.  If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses.  If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates.  Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair.  Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold.

PDO is a wildcard.

[Carvers Gap]

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.