NorthHillsWx Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Good luck figuring out Simon's track. If you haven't, please check out today's model guidance for the system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Good luck figuring out Simon's track. If you haven't, please check out today's model guidance for the system... "Squashed spider!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Newly formed Trudy is fcst to become quite intense. Trudy as name rang a bell for me since this was also an intense Oct hurricane (135 kt) in 1990, and hung around for two weeks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Trudy Of the top 5 EPAC ACE prior to 2026, 1990 is #4 and that was a neutral ENSO year. In fact, of this top 5, only 2015 was very strong El Nino. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Simon had become quite the microcane. Pretty eye this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 22 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Simon had become quite the microcane. Pretty eye this evening Currently it has one of the weirdest look's I've seen a hurricane take on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 17 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Currently it has one of the weirdest look's I've seen a hurricane take on. It had a 34 kt radii the other day as a HU down to 30 nm. That's on par for the smallest 34 kt radii HUs in the Atlantic. 2004-2024 avg R34 35 nm or less Jeanne 28 nm 9/16/04 Humberto 26 nm 9/13/07 Michael 35 nm 9/5/12 Lee 30 nm 9/24/17 Beryl 25 nm 7/6/18 Isaac 30 nm 9/10/18 Oscar 35 nm 10/19/24 Only hurricane that comes to mind nearly as small in the EPAC is Kiko from Aug 1989 with a ~45 nm R34, and it was in the same area as Simon (VIS image attached). On Oct 10 at 15z, Simon's R34 was as large as 110 nm in one quadrant. The storm has gained about 6 degrees of latitude since it genesis. So how does a long-lived, intense TC that gained reasonable latitude shrink so much? I read that it proximity to the Mexico coast and the downslope from high elevation just inland was a factor, but many TCs parallel close to the Pacific Mexico coast, and we do not see this kind of reduction in size. Why was Simon different here? Normally, TCs grow in size w/ time from ERCs and latitude gain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Nola's final track. What a beast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Nola's final track. What a beastWeird peak area too!!! The two basins where you would expect peak intensity had the opposite.This is my favorite tc for long track . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Weird peak area too!!! The two basins where you would expect peak intensity had the opposite. This is my favorite tc for long track . Yes! That was a couple years ago if I am thinking of the same one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Yes! That was a couple years ago if I am thinking of the same oneFreddy 23. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 221446 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...VANCE GETTING STRONGER WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 101.0W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was re-positioned to near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 101.0 West. Vance is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow northwest to north-northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Satellite imagery indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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