Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

These last few pages are gold. Tweets, obscure models, it has everything. The reality is, it’s 70+ this week and it doesn’t look like we’re cooling down anytime soon.

You know the winter looks bleak when you have to dig really deep to find something positive 

[SouthCoastMA]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

These last few pages are gold. Tweets, obscure models, it has everything. The reality is, it’s 70+ this week and it doesn’t look like we’re cooling down anytime soon.

You know the winter looks bleak when you have to dig really deep to find something positive 

I don't even bother looking at anything until post-Thanksgiving. Some can't help but torture themselves with 10 day OP model runs in October, which boggles the mind. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s October 27th. lol. Climo laughs at those looking for winter. 

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

These last few pages are gold. Tweets, obscure models, it has everything. The reality is, it’s 70+ this week and it doesn’t look like we’re cooling down anytime soon.

You know the winter looks bleak when you have to dig really deep to find something positive 

Not necessarily. No one's saying winter is looking bleak. As a matter of fact, there are definite factors in play that can totally give us a different outcome historic El Nino in place. There are things happening now that have never been seen as far as polar vortex split in early November and some other signs as well. Either way, there's no definite cause for canceling winter. But I also know that you're very pessimistic. I don't mean that in a mean way, I just know what your defense mechanism so you don't set yourself up for disappointment.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not necessarily. No one's saying winter is looking bleak. As a matter of fact, there are definite factors in play that can totally give us a different outcome historic El Nino in place. There are things happening now that have never been seen as far as polar vortex split in early November and some other signs as well. Either way, there's no definite cause for canceling winter. But I also know that you're very pessimistic. I don't mean that in a mean way, I just know what your defense mechanism so you don't set yourself up for disappointment.

The PV stuff is click bait.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The PV stuff is click bait.

 There have been quite a bit of legit mets with this info. But we shall see (it wouldn't be something we see until mid November). 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The PV stuff is click bait.

It's so ridiculous. People are always trying to find something to latch on to. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

 There have been quite a bit of legit mets with this info. But we shall see (it wouldn't be something we see until mid November). 

Like who? lol. 
 

It’s going to lead to a warm November across the CONUS and then restrengthens in December.  

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like who? lol. 
 

It’s going to lead to a warm November across the CONUS and then restrengthens in December.  

Well.. not sure if Judah Cohen counts. He has mentioned this. Also one of the Mets here in Connecticut that I follow and listen to his morning live everyday mentioned this today of this possibility. I also follow a guy from Northeast weather... I've followed him for the last few years and I have to be honest, he has been pretty much right on with a lot of his research. He's not a clickbait guy.

Now, I guess time will tell if this actually happens in mid-november. Maybe you're right, but you're also not a professional met, so for you to jump on me that quickly it's kind of rude LOL. But no feelings are hurt here :-)

I guess we'll see what happens in mid-november. If I'm wrong, so be it. No loss for me, but if this does happen, it could get very interesting.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not necessarily. No one's saying winter is looking bleak. As a matter of fact, there are definite factors in play that can totally give us a different outcome historic El Nino in place. There are things happening now that have never been seen as far as polar vortex split in early November and some other signs as well. Either way, there's no definite cause for canceling winter. But I also know that you're very pessimistic. I don't mean that in a mean way, I just know what your defense mechanism so you don't set yourself up for disappointment.

The background state is about as bad as it gets for SNE. Not really sure how you can dispute that. I’m not pinning my hopes on some obscure feature to save us.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like who? lol. 
 

It’s going to lead to a warm November across the CONUS and then restrengthens in December.  

November is going to look a lot like October. Just shave off ~5 degrees on average. Instead of 60, it’ll be 55, etc 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The background state is about as bad as it gets for SNE. Not really sure how you can dispute that. I’m not pinning my hopes on some obscure feature to save us.

Fair enough. I do know what we're up against, but, I'm not writing it off it's definitely going to be a horribly warm winter.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well.. not sure if Judah Cohen counts. He has mentioned this. Also one of the Mets here in Connecticut that I follow and listen to his morning live everyday mentioned this today of this possibility. I also follow a guy from Northeast weather... I've followed him for the last few years and I have to be honest, he has been pretty much right on with a lot of his research. He's not a clickbait guy.

Now, I guess time will tell if this actually happens in mid-november. Maybe you're right, but you're also not a professional met, so for you to jump on me that quickly it's kind of rude LOL. But no feelings are hurt here :-)

I guess we'll see what happens in mid-november. If I'm wrong, so be it. No loss for me, but if this does happen, it could get very interesting.

I’m not trying to be a Debbie, but it has to be able to couple to the troposphere. I have seen nobody talk about that, only about how there’s a split. If you ask me, it’s a bit misleading… And then I saw one person talk about it could lead to a very sharp cold snap later in November. But that can happen regardless.

Polar Vortex splits are meant to adjust the large scale pattern for awhile, not two days. All the stuff I’ve seen just seems very misleading to me and more of click bait type stuff. 
 

The irony is that the pattern that helps cause the split will lead to a lot of CONUS warmth. Judah actually agreed on that. This split would also have to fight off Nino forcing which may make it harder to couple to the troposphere. 
 

We could see a split have more meaningful impact as @40/70 Benchmark had alluded to come mid winter and beyond. But right now, many energy mets that I know are not sold on this being much or anything. 

[weatherwiz]

I would have to hope people are looking more at just "charts" and what the tendency of the stratospheric AO is forecast to do. I mean its still pretty early in the season so the PV isn't particularly strong to begin with. Also, if you look at the structure and evolution of the structure (of course this is based off model forecasts) it does "weaken" and even looks to split but it does not become displaced really. Will this have some impact on the hemispheric pattern...sure, perhaps but enough of an impact or an influence that it needs headlines...don't think so

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not trying to be a Debbie, but it has to be able to couple to the troposphere. I have seen nobody talk about that, only about how there’s a split. If you ask me, it’s a bit misleading… And then I saw one person talk about it could lead to a very sharp cold snap later in November. But that can happen regardless.

Polar Vortex splits are meant to adjust the large scale pattern for awhile, not two days. All the stuff I’ve seen just seems very misleading to me and more of click bait type stuff. 
 

The irony is that the pattern that helps cause the split will lead to a lot of CONUS warmth. Judah actually agreed on that. This split would also have to fight off Nino forcing which may make it harder to couple to the troposphere. 
 

We could see a split have more meaningful impact as @40/70 Benchmark had alluded to come mid winter and beyond. But right now, many energy mets that I know are not sold on this being much or anything. 

Here is the forecast from the GFS of what the split looks like. I did lie a bit, there is some displacement with one part of the split displacing more into Alaska. Can't post a gif (could make one but don't feel like it) but like you said, its rather brief. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here is the forecast from the GFS of what the split looks like. I did lie a bit, there is some displacement with one part of the split displacing more into Alaska. Can't post a gif (could make one but don't feel like it) but like you said, its rather brief. 

I like looking at the ensemble 50mb view. I also Shoukd mention it’s good to make sure that the split lasts. I’ve seen some splits last just a few days.

[Snowcrazed71]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not trying to be a Debbie, but it has to be able to couple to the troposphere. I have seen nobody talk about that, only about how there’s a split. If you ask me, it’s a bit misleading… And then I saw one person talk about it could lead to a very sharp cold snap later in November. But that can happen regardless.

Polar Vortex splits are meant to adjust the large scale pattern for awhile, not two days. All the stuff I’ve seen just seems very misleading to me and more of click bait type stuff. 
 

The irony is that the pattern that helps cause the split will lead to a lot of CONUS warmth. Judah actually agreed on that. This split would also have to fight off Nino forcing which may make it harder to couple to the troposphere. 
 

We could see a split have more meaningful impact as @40/70 Benchmark had alluded to come mid winter and beyond. But right now, many energy mets that I know are not sold on this being much or anything. 

No I totally get what you're saying and appreciate what you're saying. And you're probably correct that it's not something that's going to fully impact our area in a wintry kind of way this early. I am hopeful for later January through early March for a better shot at some actual winter weather. El Ninos are tough for us, but given the right ingredients, we could get a few good storms out of it later on this season.