Severe Weather Thread 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

Severe aside, one thing this system is over producing on is snow in northern Alabama. Web cams around Huntsville are impressive right now. I think a lot of that area missed on snow this winter so this is a pretty solid event for them. Looks like some 2-3” amounts likely 

https://algotraffic.com/Cameras

[PackGrad05]

The line between Greensboro and Durham is trying to split into individual cells.

[eyewall]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Severe aside, one thing this system is over producing on is snow in northern Alabama. Web cams around Huntsville are impressive right now. I think a lot of that area missed on snow this winter so this is a pretty solid event for them. Looks like some 2-3” amounts likely 

https://algotraffic.com/Cameras

It would be nice if that would come this way lol.

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It would be nice if that would come this way lol.

Probably the most exciting side of this system. The blizzard in Wisconsin and Michigan is record breaking even for those areas too. I think NOVA and Pennsylvania will see the worst of the severe associated with the main low btw. That area has developed much cleaner air ahead of the line 

[NorthHillsWx]

In terms of busts, this at least for the south is probably going to be the biggest severe weather bust in history. Can’t think of another level 4 threat failing to produce anything more than an isolated damage report. People should be thankful it didn’t materialize but that doesn’t take away from the responsibility of forecasters to provide an accurate forecast. There is no way to sugar coat this, it is a major bust. Line is working through level 4 area right now without a single warning

[eyewall]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

In terms of busts, this at least for the south is probably going to be the biggest severe weather bust in history. Can’t think of another level 4 threat failing to produce anything more than an isolated damage report. People should be thankful it didn’t materialize but that doesn’t take away from the responsibility of forecasters to provide an accurate forecast. There is no way to sugar coat this, it is a major bust. Line is working through level 4 area right now without a single warning

Yeah this is an epic bust for sure. One of the worst I have seen. The bad thing about it is the cry wolf syndrome that will follow.

[GaWx]

 This is great news for most of the south. I’m happy and would much rather have a forecast bust than the really bad things happen and verify the forecast. I have loved ones in ATL and had debated whether or not to alert them. I chose not to so I wouldn’t cause unnecessary worry based partially on FFC not even saying “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM):

REST OF TONIGHT 
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE 
LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 

MONDAY 
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.

So, FFC didn’t bust at all. So, great news in all aspects for ATL. No bust by FFC and only two straight line TS wind damage reports for a downed tree. 
 

 Regarding the crying wolf concern, forecasting these events is very difficult and I saw very little on either board the day before saying it wouldn’t verify. Regarding those that won’t take the threat seriously next time (relatively few imho), that’s their problem as forecasting these is way easier said than done and I’d prefer they be extra cautious.

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In terms of busts, this at least for the south is probably going to be the biggest severe weather bust in history. Can’t think of another level 4 threat failing to produce anything more than an isolated damage report. People should be thankful it didn’t materialize but that doesn’t take away from the responsibility of forecasters to provide an accurate forecast. There is no way to sugar coat this, it is a major bust. Line is working through level 4 area right now without a single warning

I feel like ceiling on this event was always high, but in recent years the SPC has moved away from their old approach of staying conservative and ramping up the categories until day of. Now they try and predict what the day 1 probabilities should be two to three days out. The old method they would have gone with an enhanced yesterday and then held off on a moderate this morning knowing the CAMs were showing the threat diminished. 

[EarlGrey]

Yeah this is has been a huge bust. It’s not really doing much anything and the 2pm tornado watch will most likely get cancelled early. Maybe we’ll get some rain out of it. 

[PackGrad05]

I've already had 0.60" in southern wake.  Absolutely nothing severe, or even any strong winds.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I've already had 0.60" in southern wake.  Absolutely nothing severe, or even any strong winds.

I legit don’t think it’s gusted to 15 mph yet today here

[GaWx]

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

[Ander]

Warm and rainy here in Durham, no even moderate winds and no thunder yet.

[EarlGrey]

The sun is out now. Is it possible to get dry slotted in a severe weather storm situation? 

[eyewall]

[GaWx]

Our tornado watch just expired.  We’re now getting a line of storms along the leading edge of rain with gusty winds. It looks kind of rough along the coast to my south though I don’t see any severe warnings yet. But this was issued at 1:59PM:

159 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026 

..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LIBERTY...MCINTOSH 
BRYAN AND 
CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT... 

AT 159 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER 
HARRIS NECK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. 

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND 
UNSECURED OBJECTS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
DARIEN, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, 
HARRIS NECK AND HALFMOON LANDING.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

I think the tornado threat in eastern NC has been mitigated as well given the sloppy storm mode on radar right now

[Clemsonlady]

Districts legit cancelled school today… lawd


.

[landof2rivers]

I’m getting more rain and wind now than I got from either event this morning. 

[GaWx]

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

[eyewall]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

Most of those came with the NCFR last evening more than likely. 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Most of those came with the NCFR last evening more than likely. 

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports?  If so, wow!

[eyewall]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports?  If so, wow!

Those were not 65+ knots. Those would be marked in black. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Those were not 65+ knots. Those would be marked in black. 

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

Yeah overall it truly was a bust yesterday and even on air meteorologists are basically saying the same. They are taking a beating today. 

[SUNYGRAD]

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah overall it truly was a bust yesterday and even on air meteorologists are basically saying the same. They are taking a beating today. 

Good case study for sure.  This what got my attention in am (below at 8:00 am) and RAP progression or lack of as the morning went on. 

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

 

34 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah overall it truly was a bust yesterday and even on air meteorologists are basically saying the same. They are taking a beating today. 

Yea someone posted it yesterday before the front but there was not a SINGLE wind report in the RAH area before the front got here. All of those in central NC were post frontal winds, which were impressive. Swaths of 50-60 mph gusts were certainly seen. We most definitely gusted over 40 out of the NW here a few times. On X this morning I saw a SPC met using this map as justification that the event was not a bust. I can post it if I can dig it back up. To me that’s very poor messaging. There’s been a reckoning on social media and I can say from being in the triangle people are PISSED about the perceived overreaction to what amounted to a cool/dreary day. There needs to be better and clear messaging from an accountability standpoint when these events are forecast incorrectly 

[mclean02]

https://youtu.be/q9S8WRkAw0g?si=MRqIr5eI-hA5adjI nice video explaining what happened 

[NorthHillsWx]

One red flag with this system is pretty academic but with high end events in this area they almost always have significant outbreaks west of here before arriving. This event underperformed massively the day before, with just 6 weak tornado reports. Not much science to that as the atmosphere is fluid and a system can certainly change overnight but usually major severe outbreaks in the south start out in midwest and move into our area 

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One red flag with this system is pretty academic but with high end events in this area they almost always have significant outbreaks west of here before arriving. This event underperformed massively the day before, with just 6 weak tornado reports. Not much science to that as the atmosphere is fluid and a system can certainly change overnight but usually major severe outbreaks in the south start out in midwest and move into our area 

Yeah I knew it when the air didn't have the feel of an outbreak day like it did on 4/16/2011. On top of that as you stated the winds were calm and that is definitely not how it goes around here on most high end days.