Severe Weather Thread 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

Severe aside, one thing this system is over producing on is snow in northern Alabama. Web cams around Huntsville are impressive right now. I think a lot of that area missed on snow this winter so this is a pretty solid event for them. Looks like some 2-3” amounts likely 

https://algotraffic.com/Cameras

[PackGrad05]

The line between Greensboro and Durham is trying to split into individual cells.

[eyewall]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Severe aside, one thing this system is over producing on is snow in northern Alabama. Web cams around Huntsville are impressive right now. I think a lot of that area missed on snow this winter so this is a pretty solid event for them. Looks like some 2-3” amounts likely 

https://algotraffic.com/Cameras

It would be nice if that would come this way lol.

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It would be nice if that would come this way lol.

Probably the most exciting side of this system. The blizzard in Wisconsin and Michigan is record breaking even for those areas too. I think NOVA and Pennsylvania will see the worst of the severe associated with the main low btw. That area has developed much cleaner air ahead of the line 

[NorthHillsWx]

In terms of busts, this at least for the south is probably going to be the biggest severe weather bust in history. Can’t think of another level 4 threat failing to produce anything more than an isolated damage report. People should be thankful it didn’t materialize but that doesn’t take away from the responsibility of forecasters to provide an accurate forecast. There is no way to sugar coat this, it is a major bust. Line is working through level 4 area right now without a single warning

[eyewall]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

In terms of busts, this at least for the south is probably going to be the biggest severe weather bust in history. Can’t think of another level 4 threat failing to produce anything more than an isolated damage report. People should be thankful it didn’t materialize but that doesn’t take away from the responsibility of forecasters to provide an accurate forecast. There is no way to sugar coat this, it is a major bust. Line is working through level 4 area right now without a single warning

Yeah this is an epic bust for sure. One of the worst I have seen. The bad thing about it is the cry wolf syndrome that will follow.

[GaWx]

 This is great news for most of the south. I’m happy and would much rather have a forecast bust than the really bad things happen and verify the forecast. I have loved ones in ATL and had debated whether or not to alert them. I chose not to so I wouldn’t cause unnecessary worry based partially on FFC not even saying “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM):

REST OF TONIGHT 
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE 
LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 

MONDAY 
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.

So, FFC didn’t bust at all. So, great news in all aspects for ATL. No bust by FFC and only two straight line RS wind damage reports for a downed tree. 
 

 Regarding the crying wolf concern, forecasting these events is very difficult and I saw very little on either board the day before saying it wouldn’t verify. Regarding those that won’t take the threat seriously next time (relatively few imho), that’s their problem as forecasting these is way easier said than done and I’d prefer they be extra cautious.

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In terms of busts, this at least for the south is probably going to be the biggest severe weather bust in history. Can’t think of another level 4 threat failing to produce anything more than an isolated damage report. People should be thankful it didn’t materialize but that doesn’t take away from the responsibility of forecasters to provide an accurate forecast. There is no way to sugar coat this, it is a major bust. Line is working through level 4 area right now without a single warning

I feel like ceiling on this event was always high, but in recent years the SPC has moved away from their old approach of staying conservative and ramping up the categories until day of. Now they try and predict what the day 1 probabilities should be two to three days out. The old method they would have gone with an enhanced yesterday and then held off on a moderate this morning knowing the CAMs were showing the threat diminished. 

[EarlGrey]

Yeah this is has been a huge bust. It’s not really doing much anything and the 2pm tornado watch will most likely get cancelled early. Maybe we’ll get some rain out of it. 

[PackGrad05]

I've already had 0.60" in southern wake.  Absolutely nothing severe, or even any strong winds.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I've already had 0.60" in southern wake.  Absolutely nothing severe, or even any strong winds.

I legit don’t think it’s gusted to 15 mph yet today here

[GaWx]

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

[Ander]

Warm and rainy here in Durham, no even moderate winds and no thunder yet.