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Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread


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Made it to 37 this morning so far which is again below guidance.  I suspect patchy frost is in the area, but cannot confirm that yet.  The GFS and RGEM are the only models which are getting close to projected night time lows.  The GFS has Friday morning as 34-35 for temps.  No other model has it.  Good test coming up again.

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54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Made it to 37 this morning so far which is again below guidance.  I suspect patchy frost is in the area, but cannot confirm that yet.  The GFS and RGEM are the only models which are getting close to projected night time lows.  The GFS has Friday morning as 34-35 for temps.  No other model has it.  Good test coming up again.

Yeah going to be a stout cold front again this week after some great beneficial rainfall. 

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

My partly cloudy has turned into unexpected rainfall.  Not a lot but will take it.

@Met1985, definitely looks like another strong front.  This will delay my garden by about a week.  I sure didn't see that coming after weeks of temps in the low to upper 80s.  What a flip!

Yeah this has been a snap back for sure. 32 degrees yesterday morning and 33 degrees this morning. Ill take it.

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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

My partly cloudy has turned into unexpected rainfall.  Not a lot but will take it.

@Met1985, definitely looks like another strong front.  This will delay my garden by about a week.  I sure didn't see that coming after weeks of temps in the low to upper 80s.  What a flip!

Wound up with 0.09" here this Morning. Some thunder and Lightning as well.

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Latest drought monitor is out. Chipping away at the extreme drought in Middle and West Tenn. Rainfall tally ended Tuesday so East doesn't have what just fell. I figure North Mississippi improved too.

We have another week or so of a somewhat active pattern. Then it wants to shift back to the Midwest - which could still clip the Mid-South. East Tennessee needs more help before that shift.

Some mid-range guidance has rain chances again in the 11-15 day period, so the week of May 18. Models try to bring one more trough through the Great Lakes that period. We'll see. Climo is gonna start favoring the Plains in late May.

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More patchy frost tonight over the northern valley into SW VA.  This is getting old fast(covering up stuff)!  These temps have been steadily going in reverse since those mid-80s summertime, bluebird days a few weeks ago!  57F at TRI right now.  Feels like February.

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